I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.
High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
- Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
- the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
- maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn to receive fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
- this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
- With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?