Ukrainian War Developments

MortyandRick said:

I hear this a lot repeated here and by western media. Can any of you posters link evidence to show that the Russian intelligence expected Ukraine to welcome them as liberators? Or that a significant proportion of the Russian population is against Putin abs this war? Or if this a” just trust me bro “ kind of source? Or is this the much vaulted mental gymnastics mentioned above? Certainly it can go both ways.

In that case, I can assure you from my Russian acquaintances, every one of them support this operation and most of the Russian public. And they were very aware of how much hate the Ukrainians had for them

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Note another evident failure in reading comprehension.

"Russian intelligence failed IF it expected that invading Russian soldiers would be 'welcomed as liberators' by anyone in Ukraine."

Please look up the meaning of the word 'if'. Please refer to the context of my post.
Please note that I replied to a writer who claimed that the Russians 'honestly' expected to be 'welcomed as liberators'.
Please attempt to grasp that I was implicitly pointing out that such an expectation, if held, was delusional.

Under the circumstances, it's impracticable to conduct a free and fair survey of Russian public opinion on the war (excuse me),
the 'special military operation'. But one may infer what Russia's government really perceives--or fears--of public opinion.
If there are only a few anti-war Russians (as you apparently yearn to believe), why would Russia's government criminalize about
all criticism of the war, refusing even to allow Russians to describe it as a war instead of as a 'special military operation'?
Why would Russia's government act like it's so frightened of a supposedly tiny minority of anti-war dissidents?
In reality, Russia's government is acting like it's afraid that there's already a significant minority of Russians (including
disproportionately the most educated) who could form the core of a growing movement against the war and Putin.

I am not claiming or implying, however, that a Russian anti-war movement is likely to prevail.
The Russian state has many powerful tools of control, disinformation, and repression, which will kept most Russians in line.
Even in supposed democracies, anti-war movements seldom prevail and never quickly.

Most of my Russian friends (not yours) had low opinions of Putin even before this war.
And that includes a woman whose aunt lives in the Crimea and approves of its annexation by Russia.
Yet she (my friend, not her aunt) regards the chorus of pro-Putin propaganda as disgusting.

Lapin said:

That phallocentric rhetoric is gratuitous and sexist.
Unfortunately, that's too common and accepted in male-dominated spaces.

Here are some comments by Melissa Chan (criticizing John Mearsheimer's views on Ukraine):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507702814612541448

"Mearsheimer’s argument is basically the “she wore a short skirt” justification."

"As a woman covering foreign policy, and simply as a woman in society who sees regular justification of male violence, in this case it’s
Putin’s toxic masculinity against Ukraine — but Mearsheimer’s position isn’t just a “take,” it is morally deplorable and based on misogyny."

I don't necessarily agree with Melissa Chan on many issues, but I concur that there's regular condescension (at best)
toward women who dare to think independently and express their views in male-dominated spaces.

I often have heard that women are too soft and too emotional to think objectively about war or military history.
So it's better to stick to having babies.

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Average twitter user

Insignius said:

Melissa Chan would approve an Australian invasion of the Solomon Islands if they allow a Chinese naval base. People should stop caring about her garbage opinions.

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Note another failure to grasp the context. (This forum has a common low level of literacy.)

"I don't necessarily agree with Melissa Chan on many issues, but I concur that there's regular condescension (at best)
toward women who dare to think independently and express their views in male-dominated spaces."

Note that I *already* made clear that I don't necessarily agree with Melissa Chan on many issues.
Yet I concur with her that women tend to be treated differently (condescendingly) in male-dominated spaces.
Of course, if you are not a woman, you have not experienced that and may find it impossible to believe.

If Melissa Chan reported that she was sexually assaulted, then would you say:
"Melissa, I cannot believe you because I regard all your opinions on other issues as garbage."?

MortyandRick said:

I hear this a lot repeated here and by western media. Can any of you posters link evidence to show that the Russian intelligence expected Ukraine to welcome them as liberators? Or that a significant proportion of the Russian population is against Putin abs this war? Or if this a” just trust me bro “ kind of source? Or is this the much vaulted mental gymnastics mentioned above? Certainly it can go both ways.

In that case, I can assure you from my Russian acquaintances, every one of them support this operation and most of the Russian public. And they were very aware of how much hate the Ukrainians had for them

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It's another myth. I doubt civilian reception to Russian soldiers played any role in Russian military strategy. As long as they don't start becoming suicide bombers and blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints. Which so far they haven't. At the start a few took up Zelensky's call and tried taking out tanks with Molotovs, but were quickly dispatched. Most civilian authorities have been ok with working with Russians, and the few that haven't have been arrested as POWs and replaced with opposition party members.

There's also plenty of videos of civilians welcoming Russians and taking aid, but I guess its Russian propaganda.

MortyandRick said:

I hear this a lot repeated here and by western media. Can any of you posters link evidence to show that the Russian intelligence expected Ukraine to welcome them as liberators? Or that a significant proportion of the Russian population is against Putin abs this war? Or if this a” just trust me bro “ kind of source? Or is this the much vaulted mental gymnastics mentioned above? Certainly it can go both ways.

In that case, I can assure you from my Russian acquaintances, every one of them support this operation and most of the Russian public. And they were very aware of how much hate the Ukrainians had for them

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I think that the Kremlin prepared for said scenario, but that they hoped for a 4 in terms of resistance, when in reality they were faced with an 8.

Botnet said:

Sure they wont be able to sustain this attrition of armor, but as long as the steady stream of NATO supplies keep coming, it'll just devolve into HOI4 bordergore.

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Yep, I'm sure NATO is prepared to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

Botnet said:

If Putin did that, at the very least the US would start shipping in the good stuff, possibly Patriots

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If Putin aren't allowing S-300s to enter Ukraine why would he allow Patriots? Even if he did, how will the Ukrainians operate them?
LOL calling Patriots good stuff. Last I checked they struggled against 60s era Iraqi scuds.

Lapin said:

Note another evident failure in reading comprehension.

"Russian intelligence failed IF it expected that invading Russian soldiers would be 'welcomed as liberators' by anyone in Ukraine."

Please look up the meaning of the word 'if'. Please refer to the context of my post.
Please note that I replied to a writer who claimed that the Russians 'honestly' expected to be 'welcomed as liberators'.
Please attempt to grasp that I was implicitly pointing out that such an expectation, if held, was delusional.

Under the circumstances, it's impracticable to conduct a free and fair survey of Russian public opinion on the war (excuse me),
the 'special military operation'. But one may infer what Russia's government really perceives--or fears--of public opinion.
If there are only a few anti-war Russians (as you apparently yearn to believe), why would Russia's government criminalize about
all criticism of the war, refusing even to allow Russians to describe it as a war instead of as a 'special military operation'?
Why would Russia's government act like it's so frightened of a supposedly tiny minority of anti-war dissidents?
In reality, Russia's government is acting like it's afraid that there's already a significant minority of Russians (including
disproportionately the most educated) who could form the core of a growing movement against the war and Putin.

I am not claiming or implying, however, that a Russian anti-war movement is likely to prevail.
The Russian state has many powerful tools of control, disinformation, and repression, which will kept most Russians in line.
Even in supposed democracies, anti-war movements seldom prevail and never quickly.

Most of my Russian friends (not yours) had low opinions of Putin even before this war.
And that includes a woman whose aunt lives in the Crimea and approves of its annexation by Russia.
Yet she (my friend, not her aunt) regards the chorus of pro-Putin propaganda as disgusting.

Click to expand...

I will admit I missed the “If” part. In my opinion, I do not think they overwhelmingly expected to be welcomed as liberators. If they did then I would agree with you.

as for your second point, I don’t think anyone one of us can make any assummotions or infer anything. If the Russian govt criminalizing criticism of the war is due to significant anti war sentiment, then by that same logic there must be a significant portion of people in the west that supports Russia position, brcause Russian media and Russian points of view are being banned in the supposed free speech capitals of the west? What are they afraid of? Why did they arrest that pro Russian blogger in Latvia?

Having friends who think a certain way does not mean much, which is the point of my message about my Russian acquaintances. I don’t put a lot of stock in their view points being generalizable to the Russian population.

Abominable said:

Yep, I'm sure NATO is prepared to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

If Putin aren't allowing S-300s to enter Ukraine why would he allow Patriots? Even if he did, how will the Ukrainians operate them?
LOL calling Patriots good stuff. Last I checked they struggled against 60s era Iraqi scuds.

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The only reason heavy weaponry isn't flowing into Ukraine is because both sides have agreed not to escalate this any further which is why the US has only been sending in MANPADS and such, and balked at the MiG deal. But if Putin started carpet-bombing cities, NATO would be hard pressed not to escalate in turn, and such floodgates will be opened.

Apparently Patriots do have dubious accuracy.

Botnet said:

Apparently Patriots do have dubious accuracy.

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In any cases, weapons send to Ukraine have a big risk of falling in Russia hands. Nothing that could cause an undesired tech or intelligence transfer would not be sent in Ukraine.

Abominable said:

It's another myth. I doubt civilian reception to Russian soldiers played any role in Russian military strategy. As long as they don't start becoming suicide bombers and blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints. Which so far they haven't. At the start a few took up Zelensky's call and tried taking out tanks with Molotovs, but were quickly dispatched. Most civilian authorities have been ok with working with Russians, and the few that haven't have been arrested as POWs and replaced with opposition party members.

There's also plenty of videos of civilians welcoming Russians and taking aid, but I guess its Russian propaganda.

Click to expand...

In 1941, many Ukrainians (at least in western Ukraine) threw flowers and welcomed the German soldiers as their liberators.
I have not noticed Russian propaganda yet claiming that Ukrainians now have welcomed Russian soldiers like that.

It's disingenuous to claim that if hungry civilians accept food from occupying soldiers, that means that they welcomed the invasion.
In 1945 Berlin, starving women would queue for any food distributed by the RKKA even when these women already had been raped
by Soviet soldiers.

Marie Jalowicz was a young German Jewish woman who had survived the Shoah by hiding (with the aid of friends) in Berlin.
She was 'liberated' by a Soviet soldier, who 'naturally' (her word) celebrated by raping her all night long.
She did not resist. She later said that it was no worse than what she had expected as a conquered woman, a spoils of war.
As her reward, the soldier gave her a bit of food and a signed note (in Russian) saying that she was his fiancée.
The note warned other Soviet soldiers to leave her alone because he had already claimed her, in effect, as his exclusive property.
The next time that a Soviet soldier attempted to rape her, she showed him the note and was able to escape.
(He presumably quickly found another vulnerable woman, who did not have a note signed by a Soviet soldier.)
Marie Jalowicz accepted his aid, but that does not mean that she desired, encouraged, or enjoyed what the soldier did to her.