Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Zichan said:
Ukraine started the war with about 200,000 active duty soldiers, bolstered by a paramilitary force at least 100,000 strong. They have been mobilizing for a full month now and thanks to a deluge of small firearm supplies arriving from the West they won't be running into a problem equipping those troops anytime soon. From what I've been able to gather they've already mobilized an additional 150,000 troops. The war has entered a phase of attrition and it's not looking good for Russia right now.
Click to expand...
One thing the "Ukraine is winning" crowd hasn't been able to answer is this: how is Ukraine getting arms to their army 600 miles away from the Poland border? Do they have some sort of magic portal between Lvov and Kharkov? Never mind weapons, what about basic fuel and food? Have you seen any pictures of what Ukraine are using for cargo transportation recently?

It also ignores the fact that each NATO country seems to be supplying limited quantities from their own stockpile rather than one country supplying it all. NATO equipment isn't very standardised. Even the so called standard NATO rounds all have their own grain specification. Can you use rounds manufactured in France in a German gun? It all seems very disorganised.

Is Ukraine able to deal with this logistical nightmare as well the problems above?

It seems to me that NATO are creating a guerrilla army rather than reinforcing a professional army. The problem with that is, nowadays the best insurgents use suicide belts and IEDs over just Kalashnikovs.
 
Intrepid

Intrepid

Major
Zichan said:
Ukraine started the war with about 200,000 active duty soldiers, bolstered by a paramilitary force at least 100,000 strong. They have been mobilizing for a full month now and thanks to a deluge of small firearm supplies arriving from the West they won't be running into a problem equipping those troops anytime soon. From what I've been able to gather they've already mobilized an additional 150,000 troops. The war has entered a phase of attrition and it's not looking good for Russia right now.
Click to expand...
Defense companies in Europe are just beginning to ramp up production. I see that in the job advertisements that reach me. It will certainly take another six months, but then the supply of weapons will be secured.

And Ukraine gets financial support. It no longer begs governments for guns, it buys directly from manufacturers. It's already doing that.
 
M

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Lapin said:
"I think that Russian plan honestly expected the Ukrainian resistance to collapse within days and the Russian soldiers
to be welcomed as liberators."

Russian intelligence failed if it expected that invading Russian soldiers would be 'welcomed as liberators' by anyone in Ukraine
besides some ethnic Russians. Indeed, a significant proportion of Russians disapprove of this 'special military operation'.
Click to expand...
I hear this a lot repeated here and by western media. Can any of you posters link evidence to show that the Russian intelligence expected Ukraine to welcome them as liberators? Or that a significant proportion of the Russian population is against Putin abs this war? Or if this a” just trust me bro “ kind of source? Or is this the much vaulted mental gymnastics mentioned above? Certainly it can go both ways.

In that case, I can assure you from my Russian acquaintances, every one of them support this operation and most of the Russian public. And they were very aware of how much hate the Ukrainians had for them
 
L

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
One thing the "Ukraine is winning" crowd hasn't been able to answer is this: how is Ukraine getting arms to their army 600 miles away from the Poland border? Do they have some sort of magic portal between Lvov and Kharkov? Never mind weapons, what about basic fuel and food? Have you seen any pictures of what Ukraine are using for cargo transportation recently?

It also ignores the fact that each NATO country seems to be supplying limited quantities from their own stockpile rather than one country supplying it all. NATO equipment isn't very standardised. Even the so called standard NATO rounds all have their own grain specification. Can you use rounds manufactured in France in a German gun? It all seems very disorganised.

Is Ukraine able to deal with this logistical nightmare as well the problems above?

It seems to me that NATO are creating a guerrilla army rather than reinforcing a professional army. The problem with that is, nowadays the best insurgents use suicide belts and IEDs over just Kalashnikovs.
Click to expand...

"It seems to me that NATO are creating a guerrilla army rather than reinforcing a professional army."

It's absurd to expect that supplying some NATO arms will suddenly magically transform Ukraine's army into a NATO army.
While some Ukrainian soldiers have received NATO training, Ukraine's army is not yet designed to be integrated into NATO.

In the Great Patriotic War, the Spanish Azul Division was effective even though it had different training and doctrine from
the German divisions that fought alongside it. Hitler regarded the Spaniards as very undisciplined but also as very brave.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Richard Santos said:
If putin kept ukraine out of NATO, and russia remains intact, stable and still possess a nuclear deterrence broadly comparable to those of the US in 10 years, then Russia won a decisive strategic victory.
Click to expand...
It is not worth an invasion to do that.... The NATO charter explicitly forbids membership to nations engaged in any war (i.e., Russo-Ukrainian war, including Crimea and 8-year proxy war in Donass) and Ukraine's formal invitation since 2008 was lingering into limbo due to lack of consensus among 30 members. So the chance of formal NATO membership was nearly zero even before the invasion. Instead, Russia sought long term solution codified in a treaty, and the pandemic chaos was an opportunity to issue an ultimatum on Ukrainian neutrality and non-NATO membership codified in a legally-binding treaty (or else), hoping West will be too distracted by pandemic woes to intervene or retaliate. Putin was right that West didn't intervene, NATO didn't save the day. The sanctions are expected though, perhaps not to severity, but definitely expected. It isn't a cakewalk like 2014 Crimea annexation.
 
Last edited:
B

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
While 6:1 ratio is very optimistic (I think it's more like 2:1 at this stage). The Ukrainians have basically unlimited manpower at this point. They can afford to lose men at that level because of full conscription & foreign mercenaries. What will really cost them is losing equipment and supplies. It's easier to send jeeps full of soldiers to the front line than a tanker of fuel.
Click to expand...
Sure they wont be able to sustain this attrition of armor, but as long as the steady stream of NATO supplies keep coming, it'll just devolve into HOI4 bordergore.
Abominable said:
If Putin brought out the big boys and started carpet bombing Ukrainian lines, then you'd definitely be seeing those sorts of numbers.
Click to expand...
If Putin did that, at the very least the US would start shipping in the good stuff, possibly Patriots
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
Richard Santos said:
The US is so eager to get Iran to help alleviate the hole in world oil and gas supply created by cutting off Russian gas, that she gave in to Russian demand for written guaranty that any future Russo-Iranian transaction under the 6 party Iranian nuclear agreement will never be subjected to American or EU sanction.

The whole reason why the US needed to be red faced and ask for this favor is because the selfsame US decided to unilaterally trash this deal under trump.
Click to expand...
Do you have a source for this?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top