Ukrainian War Developments

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Stealthflanker

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All drones regardless of type have very high failure rates compared to piloted aircraft. The Russians are reporting loads of downed drones, but they are all Ukrainian/ex soviet ones, or commercial ones. Look at TB-2 deployment anywhere else, they had lots more being shot down or just malfunctioning. Are we to believe the TB-2 has suddenly become stealth capable and ultra reliable? I doubt it.

Or they got deleted on the ground when Kalibr strikes the base maybe ?
 

Abominable

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It really shouldn't be that hard to deal with TB-2, it is operating on direct line of sight communication.
I didn't know that, I assumed it had actually had remote capability.

So it's basically a toy drone. It also makes me question whether a TB2 could have hit that carrier ship the other day.
Or they got deleted on the ground when Kalibr strikes the base maybe ?
Even if they managed to get them all on day one, Turkey could have resupplied them.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
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Common interest up to what point? Russian MOD had reported that Ukraine has only 1 TB2 left. When the new batch of TB2s delivered to Ukraine starts killing more Russian troops. How the Russian MOD and Putin are gonna explain that?

To the point where it still comfortable to continue. Like there should be a deal done backhand on how things should settle. basically a "Deconfliction line" like what US-Russia have in Syria (thus why we never seen any fractricide between US and Russian aircrafts)

Unfortunately you cannot stick on emotions of "Russian lives matter" or "Ukrainian lives matter" in Geopolitics. sadly. But that's the way it is.
 

enroger

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I didn't know that, I assumed it had actually had remote capability.

So it's basically a toy drone. It also makes me question whether a TB2 could have hit that carrier ship the other day.

Even if they managed to get them all on day one, Turkey could have resupplied them.

It doesn't have sat comm, though it still has operation range about 2-300km within LOS. So theoretically it is possible for TB-2 to slip through and hit that ship, these toy drones while not exactly stealthy does have annoyingly small rcs....
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Well according to the Ukrainian advisor, this was their plan to goad Russia into fight an expensive war and lose. Then become a liberal pro West country. Now I hope that part isn’t true. I don’t think Russia will lose especially since NATO isn’t coming to the Ukrainian rescue. but I wonder if their breaking the Minsk agreement was their plan all along and get Russia into a war
He is an idiot. If NATO does a "no fly zone" then the Russians will hit the bases those aircraft operate from. Russia is not Iraq or Serbia.
The Russians are itching for an excuse to bomb the Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and Romania. That would give them the perfect casus belli to hit those sites. He is going to wreck his country so NATO can have a chance to win against Russia. What an idiot. And Biden seems to have cancelled the plan for Poland to send units into Ukraine too.

If NATO already had Dark Eagle in service in Germany maybe he could have got his wish. But right now Russia has the advantage since they have Kinzhal and the US has, well, nothing. And by the time NATO gets Dark Eagle, the Russians might have A-235 Nudol and already have S-500 in service. Zircon will be in mass production. The Russians have been planning for this thing for a LONG time. NATO seems to think they can win a military arms race against Russia. But I doubt Russia will let them have the time to rest. This is a repeat of the arms race in the 1960s. Back then it lead to detente. But I don't expect today's idiotic politicians to be that smart.

It seems the "analysts" on twitter now pushing the claim that Kherson is virtually undefended and Russians already left the area
The Ukrainians seem to doing long distance MLRS strikes on the outskirts of Kherson. It will just mean the Russians will have to speed up clearing the area around Nikolayev. The Russians do not seem to want to enter Nikolayev at this point. Since with the resistance they would have to face there it would need tying up too many troops. If need be the Russians will increase retaliatory strikes on it.
I think the main focus will be on the East and North. It would take too many troops to get Nikolayev and they moved most of the marines to Mariupol region. The Russians would need more troops if they wanted to enter Nikolayev and enter Odessa. I doubt it will happen given NATO is doing exercises in Norway right now and Russia needs to keep some units back. Russia would need to call the reserves to get to that place. And the Russians do not seem to want to do it. They are taking this slow.

They look mostly to be volunteers and not regular army. If these are the forces that have been at the forefront of this counter offensive that we have been hearing so much about........
They seem to be more poorly equipped than their "elite" units. I think they had all their best troops and equipment in the Eastern side. If this is their idea of a counter offensive then I guess even the VDV can handle them. I sort of expected them to keep some reserve units near Lviv to do a counter offensive. If they were counting on foreign auxiliaries to do it, well, the Ukrainians are idiots. I think they expected NATO to help them. The Russians would probably bomb whichever troops NATO sent into pieces.
 
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