Depends on what "very soon" means. The biggest thing holding up the Russians on the eastern and southern fronts is the Siege of Mariupol. I've seen reports that up to 14,000 Russian and DPR troops are involved in the siege of the city. If true (big if), it would mean that Mariupol is tying down some 8-9% of all remaining Russian and pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. Once Mariupol falls and the Russians have secured it, the eastern front should become more fluid and mobile than it is now. A few days ago I estimated Mariupol would fall by this Sunday (tomorrow). I doubt that's going to happen now, although my prediction won't be that far off. More realistic is it'll fall by next Wednesday or Thursday. The staunch defense of Mariupol has really saved the Ukrainian military in immeasurable ways. It's one of the big stories of this war.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
I think at this point it is abundantly clear that the Russian planning for this operation, whatever its goals are, was terrible. They went into Ukraine outnumbered, failed to maintain initiative and have given Ukraine ample time to mobilize its forces. They are in a quagmire now with no easy way out.
Hahaha! That's exactly what I said 3 weeks ago, good to know some generals agree with me.
I would go further, and make the Russians have to cross the Dnieper. That way it would have been much easier for the Ukrainians to resupply and harder for the Russians. Instead they've got a situation where they're stuck fighting with cold war era weapons on the frontline but have billions of dollars worth of NATO hardware left in warehouses in the west of the country.
It may have been politically unacceptable to lose Kiev and have to relocate to Lvov, and it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome of the war. But at least it would have given them a chance and they would have made the Russians work harder for the win.
Russian Buyan corvette launching Kalibr missiles from Black Sea towards Ukrainian positions around Zhytomyr.
Continuing this again
They know called Azov as "Territorial Defense Unit"?!
We havent seen any more TB2 footage, as often as before though. So either they indeed lost them, ran out of ammo or were pushed so far to the west, russian troops are out of its range.
Russia's weakness on getting the entire south has always been the lack of manpower. Even if Mariupol falls, the troops there will be moved to the north in order to get Eastern Ukraine
I predict that the South will be prioritised only after Eastern Ukraine is taken
Claimed to be a Russian radar, any analyst here could further confirm it?
I gotta question how they measure "significant" loss ? Are Russians gonna retreat after losing 1 Counterbattery radar ?
- Status