Another salient summary from the Durant: The west is pushing the narrative the Russia has scaled back (or some may even call it a defeat) their war goal to securing Donbass. However it is likely this was Russian goal from the start, their encirclement of major Ukrainian cities is simply to pin down Ukrainian troops to prevent them from reinforcing the encircled Ukrainian forces in the east which Russia intends to destroy.
This seems perfectly reasonable to me, I've said it before it would be insane to try to take the entire Ukraine. Russia simple does not have the manpower to do so, not to mention the quagmire of resistance it would become.
Russia has the resources to take and hold the entire Donbass. Mariupol is in Donetsk, for example. Mariupol actually declared independence along with the rest of Donetsk back in 2014 but due to it being a low intensity hybrid conflict, was lost to Ukraine again after 1 APC was shot.
Taking all of Donbass would mean Russia gains +1 million in Lugansk and +2 million in Donetsk, 60% of whom are Russian speakers.
I think that after the Ukrainian Army in the east surrenders, they will consolidate the southern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts to gain a continuous corridor from Crimea to Donbass. This will have made the invasion worth: cuts Ukraine off from Sea of Azov and makes it an internal Russian lake, gains +10 million mostly Russian speakers, and consolidates control of Crimea.
They have a few objectives left to fully consolidate, these are the absolute minimums:
1. Southeast Axis (Donbass/Mariupol): must conquer north to Samara River at the confluence of Dniepropetrosk to gain a natural border. This means conquering cities of Zaporizhzhia and Dniepropetrosk. They also need to conquer westward to the entire eastern bank of the Donets River. This would only be maneuver warfare.
2. Northeast Axis (Chernihiv): must conquer south to the Desna and Seym Rivers to gain a natural border. No new urban conquests required. Maneuver only.
3. Southwest Axis (Kherson): must hold permanently to control the Dnieper crossing. Defensive action only.
4. Northwest Axis (Kiev): must hold as long as possible and inflict maximum damage, not get routed or encircled.
As for how bad this is for Ukraine? It is crippling. Despite keeping Kiev, Kharkiv and Lviv, they're going to get cut from the Sea of Azov, Russia would be right up at natural borders, they won't even control the Dnieper (as Russia will have control at key points on the east bank) and they'd have lost ~20% of area and population both.
