Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
My impression is that Russia sort of hurried into it. If they planned this in advanced they'd have at least stock up on PGMs, some here may chalk it up to Russian incompetence but I'm not buying it. Something spooked Putin big time....
I think its the day before the war, where Zelensky went on media and talked about breaking the Budapest agreement and building nukes again. Russia might have intel before that Ukraine is planning to build a nuke, but didn't believe it at first because it might be false information to scare them into acting. But after that announcement, it pretty much confirmed the intel to Putin.
 

Bill Blazo

Junior Member
Registered Member
I get pilloried on here for posting Oryx and UWT (both of which I rate). Will have a look at MilitaryLand. How do you know the French maps are the most accurate though?
Their maps have consistently corresponded to reality. When ISW and Britain's MOD were showing in mid-to-late March large chunks of the southern theater north of Mariupol being controlled by the Ukrainians, the French were on it and identified all of that land as Russian-controlled territory, which is exactly what it was, based on numerous lines of evidence that the Russians had captured places like Tokmak, Novoukrainka, Volnovakha, Vuhledar, etc. It's been painfully obvious for two weeks that there would be no relief force coming to save Mariupol, and yet map after map from Western sources kept showing this magical corridor of Ukrainian control stretching from Donbas and Zaporizhizhia all the way to Mariupol. Same thing in Luhansk. LPR forces took the town of Starobilsk eons ago, along with the majority of Luhansk oblast, but you would never know it if you paid attention to ISW and the British, which for weeks showed only marginal levels of Russian control beyond the de facto pre-February borders. Again, the French MOD was spot on with the situation on the ground in Luhansk way before other Western sources. It's like the French are actually paying attention to the war, and the British are drinking tea and smoking hashish before their fingers crash all over the keyboard.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think its the day before the war, where Zelensky went on media and talked about breaking the Budapest agreement and building nukes again. Russia might have intel before that Ukraine is planning to build a nuke, but didn't believe it at first because it might be false information to scare them into acting. But after that announcement, it pretty much confirmed the intel to Putin.

That maybe it, but Russia would have announced it as it is a perfectly good casus belli and show strikes where they target suspect nuclear facilities.... I don't know
 

SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Latest numbers from UN show
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
left the country since start of the current conflict and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
based on study by IOM done about a week ago. More than 10 million people currently displaced. We can expect these numbers to increase as the conflict moves progressively West and towards the center of Ukraine.

Internal movement according to evacuation corridors is towards the West and center of the country.
SEI_92478084-760x428.jpg
If Russia is able to hold territory within current day Ukraine. It is likely many of these refugees that hold pro-Ukrainian sentiment wouldn't return to Russian held/influenced territories. Eastern Ukraine would be depopulated of Ukrainian nationalists, increasing Russia's ability to influence the region.

Most displaced people would likely stay in the country but would move further West. Russia would likely find these places even harder to hold onto and influence. The result would be a Ukraine that is even more divided and sentiments more consolidated geographically but with the overall pie shrunk.

Demographically it is possible Ukraine (44 million before current conflict) drops below Poland's population (38 million) within next few years if conflict continues (likely will) as people seek opportunities abroad. Before the conflict Ukraine was already facing a demographic cliff that resulted from Soviet collapse. Years after the war we might see pockets of prosperity in the East, West and Kyiv but the country as a whole would be in accelerated decline without a demographic rebound in sight. Ukraine was in serious demographic decline before the war and current phase of the conflict has accelerated trends by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. The important factor to track would be to see where the young settles after this conflict, they are the future of a nation.

Ukraine_population_pyramid_1.1.2021.png
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

EU signs gas deal with US, but hefty bill for European taxpayers

By GT staff reporters Published: Mar 25, 2022 09:54 PM

The European Union (EU) on Friday struck a major deal on liquefied natural gas (LNG) with the US, a move that will come with a hefty bill for European taxpayers, while huge profits for US LNG producers who have long been seeking buyers amid intense competition from Russia.

Observers said since the US LNG cannot cover the gap Russia gas has left in the short term, it's possible that some European countries may need to turn to other options such as coal to meet winter demand.


EU - dogs.jpg
 

Terrowyn

New Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

EU signs gas deal with US, but hefty bill for European taxpayers

By GT staff reporters Published: Mar 25, 2022 09:54 PM

The European Union (EU) on Friday struck a major deal on liquefied natural gas (LNG) with the US, a move that will come with a hefty bill for European taxpayers, while huge profits for US LNG producers who have long been seeking buyers amid intense competition from Russia.

Observers said since the US LNG cannot cover the gap Russia gas has left in the short term, it's possible that some European countries may need to turn to other options such as coal to meet winter demand.


View attachment 85963
The US has even gone running to Venezuela for oil. You know, the country they have attempted regime change in for the last few years with sanctions.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top