The Russians are still struggling to take Mariupol, and it doesn't even look like they've made much progress in the siege over the last two days. That doesn't bode well for the rest of their war effort on the eastern front. So what's the basic strategic plan for the Russians now? Take Donbas, reinforce land bridge to Crimea, and then declare victory? Is that what "winning" means for them at this point? I can legit see that as a victory of sorts, but I know they must also be disappointed that they won't be able to turn Ukraine into a client state like they did with Belarus. I mean this primarily in an economic sense, since Ukraine will probably turn to the West to rebuild after the war.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Nothing coming from both sides for the past day, they're probably busy. It'll definitely be a struggle as Azov are well armed and will fight to the death.
The BBC are already calling it Russian disinformation, but the full version will make it on the internet somehow I'm sure.
Mariupol is just going to be a meatgrinder, so its fall will take a while to occur. Plus civilians are still trapped there, and based on the footage released, it seems that Azov is using them as human shields. I expect the Russians to primarily focus on surrounding the rest of the Ukrainian forces in the east while leaving the siege primarily to units specialized in urban warfare like Chechen and Rosgvardia units who also have some support from some of the maneuver forces, particularly the militia ones.
They might as well just bypass Kiev and run down to Odessa to take the whole Black Sea coast, that is, if they have sufficient fuel and their vehicles can make it that far!
At this point, taking the Black Sea coastal provinces (or whatever they’re called in Ukraine) and securing the whole of the Donbas region could reasonably be represented as a “strategic victory”! Many of us believed, from the outset, that taking the Black Sea coast was a primary objective of this operation. We might have been incorrect, but at this point (again), it could be considered a reasonable “consolation prize”.
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Right now Mariupol is like a ant nest after kicking it. Maybe letting the Ukrainians regroup and rot a bit in a little enclave and cleaning carefully the rest of the city. They could even bombard them with ship from Azov sea if they are stuck in the steel factory near shore like we heard in late news.
I thought the Chechens were going to take care of the Nazis!
All these struggles are because the lack of manpower. Russian troops are basically fighting Ukraine in a 1-to-1 ratio or even at 0.8/9-to-1 ratio.
Then consider that the troops are split in 4+ fronts and you get this result.
Artillery, tanks, airplanes etc are all good, but in the end you need hundreds of thousands of troops for a full scale invasion
Have the Russians brought up any additional manpower yet?
I was speaking in more general terms, but if you are so hung up on the fifth gen fighters, you need to consider the following,
1. Judging from the fate of the Su57, the Su75 will be delayed for quite sometime. By the time it comes out, if it comes out, a sixth gen fighter maybe close to being ready for China and the U.S. At that time, especially given how slow the Russians were able to produce these, it may no longer pose a threat to China.
2. If J-35 is ready long before Su75, it will take most of the non-Western market such as Iran and Turkey, which would put the viability of the Su75 in question.
3. At that time, especially if Pakistan will be equipped with J-35, India buying a fifth gen plane might be a blessing in disguise for China since more sales to Pakistan and maybe other countries connected to Pakistan.
All military equipment becomes obsolete over time. It may not matter if it comes very late.
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