Putin's popularity was the lowest it has been since he came to power because of his handling of COVID. If he comes out of this having conquered Ukraine and stood up to America he will become very popular again.
Economically it will hurt Russia but not by much. Most of the things it buys from Europe are high end luxury items. All that will happen is that whole market will be replaced by Chinese versions. In areas like the car industry it was going to happen in a decade or two anyway, thanks to these sanctions it will happen now. Oil and gas prices are high right now, which will offset a lot of the costs.
Europe is going to be hurt really badly on the other hand. Some European companies have walked away from their investments already (i.e. giving up billions), others like volkswagen are probably going to need government aid to offset the losses they will incur.
I never thought Europe would be stupid enough to sanction China but now I'm 100% sure they will.
It will literally drive them back to the dark ages but they will do it if America tells them to.
INDEED in longer term, after 2024 onwards, the Russian economy will be healthier with higher reliance on the domestic industries, empowering the domestic producers and more rational spending incl. axing the big spending on those luxurious goods made in Europe.
All this time Russia has been relatively sluggish as a nation and society, too much relying on the established system instead of building up their own. Now this economy split will enforce them to be more economically independent regardless the initial pains thus in long term this shock therapy heavy smashing by the West/G-7 will be good to keep the Russian awake and change! A huge nation very rich of all important materials in no way will live in misery... this is all about the paper wealth vs. the real materials (energy, food, raw materials, metals) -- give it a couple of years things will be obvious!
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THE SCHISM OF WORLD ECONOMY
The knee jerk “sanction everything” reaction (theft by any other description) will backfire on EUROPE spectacularly. Food, energy and raw materials were already rocketing in price even before this conflict.
You can’t eat house price inflation which is all the U.K. economy is underpinned by, real inflation caused by disruptions and scarcity will be hellish for those in Western Europe leading comfortable lives, while clutching their pearls and virtue signalling about Ukraine.
Basic bags of pasta will treble in price as will a simple loaf of bread and domestic energy will double. And what these ‘master strategists’ fail to realise is that
once you kick Russia out of the clubs they won’t come back in, even if you beg or pay them.
Starting an economic war with Russia is perhaps the dumbest economic move I’ve ever witnessed. There’s no turning back, and the tsunami effects are only just building up and will be catastrophic.
Nor is it confined to the economic sphere. Ukraine is the proxy war zone of "NATOstan", so the European governments will be seen by Russia as having the blood of Russians on their hands. That will have consequences in future years.
Even the blind and stupid are aware of the tsunami of abuse heaped upon Russia for decades and decades now, even if they agree with it. Russia has said enough, politely, and then not as politely. And now the time for politeness has ended. No more hopping on one foot, the west will now live or die with the consequences of their actions.
MARCH 2022