Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

Major
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FairAndUnbiased said:
I prefer to think of it like this: they're already backtracking on sanctioning Russia because even a $1.6 trillion shrimp economy can disrupt the global trade system because of a few strangleholds on key strategic resources. It is already causing pain.

What are they gonna do about a $20 trillion giant economy that has strangleholds in every single supply chain? it isn't gonna be about pain anymore. there's no words sufficient to describe it.
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i doubt this $1.6T economy is measured same as European #$15T. $15T is all debt and imports. there is no practical GDP.
The world wide inflation that you see is all due to Russia. it is most dominant economy in this world when measure by water resources. The more it raise the prices of grains. the higher Arabs raise the price of energy in response to be able to afford that food. both sides play this ping pong effectively through OPEC+. Russia always had trade surpluses for past 22 years with lowest debt to GDP. It has complete full cycle Aviation system from Titanium to composites but very little tolerance of assembling stuff for foreign markets.
 
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victoon

Junior Member
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Phead128 said:
Why would you compare EU sanctions against a shrimp economy (Russia) compared to an economic superpower (China)? Russia's GDP is smaller than a single Chinese province (Guangdong), an economic minnow compared to China.

Yes, in Chinese conflict over Taiwan, the US/EU will sanction the living shit out of occupied Taiwan province to kill it (akin to Xinjiang cotton/labor ban), and likely to impose substantial sanctions on China mainland as well, but the depth and scope will be dramatically limited compared to EU sanctions on Russia, a relatively shrimp economy which it doesn't rely on, except natural gas.

Russian oil/gas is replaceable in long term with printing money and renewable energy, but no nation can replace the Chinese trade and investment for EU companies and US cannot offer an alternative to make up the difference.
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I heard on a Taiwan pro China talk show that the sanctions will actually be good for Russia. Russians have become complacent with so much money from energy exports. Their GDP per capita is similar to China's. But much of it comes from energy and raw material. the real economy is much smaller. Energy enriched a small group of Russian. But now it might be a good opportunity to rebuild their industries.
 
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Lapin

Junior Member
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Mohsin77 said:
The following is a quote from George Bush, the senior, in 1991, delivered in Ukraine, warning Ukraine not to declare independence:

"Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism. They will not aid those who promote a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred."

This speech is famously known as the "Chicken Kiev Speech" delivered on the eve of the Soviet collapse. Google it.

What this shows, is that even according to NATO of 1991, today's NATO leaders (specifically in the US) are completely retarded. Even the war criminals of Bush Senior's generation would never have gone this far in service of Lockheed Martin. This crises which the US has created is more serious than the Cuban Missile Crisis, which the US also triggered when it placed nukes in Turkey. But at least in the 60s JFK was willing to negotiate. The corrupt chicken hawks today dont even do that. They just wanna keep escalating to find excuses to sell more overpriced F-35 fighters, which by the way, cant even accomplish the mission sets they were originally sold to do.
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From the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine:
"The Ukrainian SSR solemnly declares its intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs ..."

How could that be compatible with Ukraine joining NATO?
 
Strangelove

Strangelove

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KYli said:
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"Japan has stripped Russia of its most-favored nation trade status and frozen the assets of dozens of individuals and groups, among other measures."

Not mentioned in the article and rather amusing is the reintroduction of normal tariffs on Russian exports to Japan, EXCEPT for Russian fish products which the Japanese obviously have great demand for. Would love to see the Russians send all their JPN-bound fishery products to China instead.
 
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tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
Strangelove said:
"Japan has stripped Russia of its most-favored nation trade status and frozen the assets of dozens of individuals and groups, among other measures."

Not mentioned in the article and rather amusing is the reintroduction of normal tariffs on Russian exports to Japan, EXCEPT for Russian fish products which the Japanese obviously have great demand for. Would love to see the Russians send all their JPN-bound fishery products to China instead.
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Russia should implement a general price rise on all fish exports, due to inflation of course, which matches the new tariffs
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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victoon said:
I heard on a Taiwan pro China talk show that the sanctions will actually be good for Russia. Russians have become complacent with so much money from energy exports. Their GDP per capita is similar to China's. But much of it comes from energy and raw material. the real economy is much smaller. Energy enriched a small group of Russian. But now it might be a good opportunity to rebuild their industries.
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No. That is actually bogus. The government budget in Russia only gets like 15% of its receipts from oil&gas. Oil&gas makes like 20% of exports, used to be higher when prices were higher, might be higher again this year. But Russia is not as dependent on trade as some people seem to think. It has a highly self-sufficient economy. They import a lot of consumer goods, electronics, vehicle parts, and the like. To a large degree those consumer goods are relatively easy to substitute. Their industry would also be able to replace most of the vehicle parts if it wanted to. The major problem is electronics. But no one has a 100% native electronics industry in the world.

I hear a lot of people claim that Russia would collapse if the war lasts like a couple of weeks. These people are delusional. Saudi Arabia is right now fighting a war in Yemen where they have 150,000 troops on the ground. That is just their own troops, without counting other Gulf States. The Saudis have been fighting that war for seven years. Their infrastructure gets bombed by the Houtis. The Saudis import most of their weapons and ammo from the US. Most of the troops are foreign paid mercenaries. I do not know why people think Russia could not maintain a similar size volunteer force in Ukraine for a prolonged period of time. Also for reference Saudi Arabia has 34M people and Russia has 145M.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Strangelove said:
"Japan has stripped Russia of its most-favored nation trade status and frozen the assets of dozens of individuals and groups, among other measures."

Not mentioned in the article and rather amusing is the reintroduction of normal tariffs on Russian exports to Japan, EXCEPT for Russian fish products which the Japanese obviously have great demand for. Would love to see the Russians send all their JPN-bound fishery products to China instead.
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There is only 1 thing and that is sushi, which a quick search seems to confirm it. Sushi Fish is probably more lucrative.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
No. That is actually bogus. The government budget in Russia only gets like 15% of its receipts from oil&gas. Oil&gas makes like 20% of exports, used to be higher when prices were higher, might be higher again this year. But Russia is not as dependent on trade as some people seem to think. It has a highly self-sufficient economy. They import a lot of consumer goods, electronics, vehicle parts, and the like. To large degree those consumer goods are relatively easy to substitute. Their industry would also be able to replace most of the vehicle parts if it wanted to. The major problem is electronics. But no one has a 100% native electronics industry in the world.

I hear a lot of people claim that Russia would collapse if the war lasts like a couple of weeks. These people are delusional. Saudi Arabia is right now fighting a war in Yemen where they have 150,000 troops on the ground. That is just their own troops, without counting other Gulf States. The Saudis have been fighting that war for seven years. Their infrastructure gets bombed by the Houtis. The Saudis import most of their weapons and ammo from the US. Most of the troops are foreign paid mercenaries. I do not know why people think Russia could not maintain a similar size volunteer force in Ukraine for a prolonged period of time.
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it's interesting, people are saying "hurr durr Russia failure" but Saudi Arabia is fighting against Yemen, a country with GDP per capita similar to Afghanistan, that's actually striking Saudi Arabia itself. Imagine Ukrainian Air Force hitting Voronezh.
 
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