I'm optimistic because things must get worse before they get better. When things get worse, policymakers will be forced to make decisions that they never thought could become reality.
After Putin is done with Ukraine, what will Europe look like? Germany will continue to pay exorbitant prices for gas, or Russia will turn off the taps and send Germany into recession overnight. Poland will continue to cry for help, and at the direction of the US, NATO will continue to pour manpower and equipment into Eastern Europe.
Those are some of the more predictable consequences in the event of a Russian victory. But what happens next?
When American politicians raise the possibility of stationing nuclear arms in Poland, and it becomes abundantly clear that Poland could be razed to the ground in a battle between East and West, will they stand up for themselves, or will they continue dancing to America's tune? When it becomes clear to Germany that their time has run out, and that they must choose between economic survival or becoming a ritual sacrifice, what will they choose?
As much as I hate to make assumptions, let's advance this thought experiment one step further. Pessimistically, we assume that Germany and Poland give in to American pressure. The German economy is badly hurt, and all of Western Europe feel the effects, and Poland becomes the subject of every general's war plans as new a Iron Curtain runs down the Polish border. With a looming crisis that could make 2009 look like a joke, the EU is distinctly at risk of falling apart.
Now what? Will France, Germany, and the rest of Western Europe continue to kowtow to their American overlords? Will they quietly accept the collapse of the magnum opus of neoliberal institutionalism of the 20th century, the European Economic Community? The one organization that Europe had benefited so much from? A fundamental proof that liberal internationalism can and did create better lives?
European trade, safety standards, economic protocol, freedom of movement, all of these luxuries are enshrined in the being of the European Union that Europeans have taken for granted. Faced with the prospect of losing fifty-odd successful years of European engagement, will France, Germany, Poland, and the rest of Europe continue to blindly let America drive them off a metaphorical cliff, destroying European society as we know it once and for all? Or will European leaders finally grow a spine and stand up for themselves?
I don't pretend to know the answer. It's just interesting to think about, if mildly depressing. I understand that European leaders today have limited agency, that much is obvious. But I believe that is because the suffering hasn't yet arrived at their doorstep. The consequences of American overreach and Russian attempts to restore a balance of power remain contained in Ukraine, for now.
Still, I believe in a future for Europe, because when they arrive at a critical, existential juncture, they have a choice, the European Union, a proven alternative to the destructiveness of American hegemony. Not all countries are so fortunate to have such a choice. Ukraine certainly didn't - NATO or the EU, for them, was purely an empty promise. But France, Germany, Poland, and the rest of Europe all have so, so much to lose.
Last edited:
