Ukrainian War Developments

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Abominable

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SimaQian said:
Nah. That wont solve the problem. Remember the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the closest nuke exchange between the Soviets and Nato. The start was US put ballistic nukes to Turkey and Italy. The Soviets thought to make it fair put nukes also in Cuba after the failed American invasion to Cuba. The resolution was Americans removed nukes in Turkey in exchange of removal of nukes in Cuba. There was a strategic balance in the 60s and 70s. The Soviets can match and check American moves.

The number of nukes did increase from then on, the strategic balance was still there until the dissolution of USSR. Nato still expanded from 60s to 80s.

Fast forward to 2020s, that strategic balance is already long lost. Nukes are everywhere in Europe and Russia is almost cornered.

The best outcome of this war Russia is hoping at least Nato to get back to pre 1997 alliance. That was an acceptable strategic balance to them.

Putin was very clear of his threat from the beginning of the Russia Ukraine conflict. Outsiders who will interfere will face consequence they never face in their history.

Probably they have a terminal decision point that enough to trigger to drop a nuke to a Nato member to see if Nato really wants to escalate. Particulary those Nato countries sending weapons to Ukraine. If Nato wont respond by nukes, Nato countries will quickly abandon that military alliance. Do Americans really really wanted to exchange destruction of their cities to say example nuking Poland or a Baltic state?

Europe will be lucky if nobody will get nuked at the end of this conflict.
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There's a low chance of it going nuclear right now, America has backed down on pretty much everything, even the recent S400 plan. Biden has completely dodged the nuclear issue, whereas Kennedy addressed it straight away in 1962.

But if it does, that's what will happen. Poland or Latvia do something to invite a response, but get nuked instead. Probably a military base with low population density. Russia will ask if America wants to continue into a nuclear war, or allow the occupation of Poland/Latvia.

It'll be a hard pill for America to swallow, but I'm quite sure they'd rather accept NATO losing eastern Europe than die in a MAD situation.

Deino said:
Was this already posted?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505980549298593833
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Posted and debunked. It's covering a press conference from the Russian MoD which made no mention of casualties.

Sorry.
 
Black Shark

Black Shark

Junior Member
Abominable said:
There's a low chance of it going nuclear right now, America has backed down on pretty much everything, even the recent S400 plan. Biden has completely dodged the nuclear issue, whereas Kennedy addressed it.

But if it does, that's what will happen. Poland or Latvia do something to invite a response, but get nuked instead. Probably a military base with low population density. Russia will ask if America wants to continue into a nuclear war, or allow the occupation of Poland/Latvia.

It'll be a hard pill for America to swallow, but I'm quite sure they'd rather accept NATO losing eastern Europe than die in a MAD situation.
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The result will be what Lavrov said, the NATO 1997 borders. It will not happen over night but it will happen. The US will certainly throw eastern PONOS members to the nuclear de-escalation just to have the chance to try if Russia is bluffing or not. If you are in Poland at the Ukrainian border then this will most probably be some barbeque time.
 
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Tianlong

New Member
Registered Member
Black Shark said:
The result will be what Lavrov said, the NATO 1997 borders. It will not happen over night but it will happen. The US will certainly throw eastern PONOS members to the nuclear de-escalation just to have the chance to try if Russia is bluffing or not. If you are in Poland at the Ukrainian border then this will most probably be some barbeque time.
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I don't get why some people seem to be ignoring the fact that MAD works MUTUALLY. By your logic, the US could just nuke Kaliningrad and demand from the Kremlin to accept Georgia and Ukraine into NATO along with a Belarusian regime change by nuclear ultimatum.
Where comes the idea from that Russians are so keen on burning in nuclear fire?
 
Suetham

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
MortyandRick said:
Maybe they deleted it?
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The original article mentioning the number of Russian casualties has been edited. In reality, the article claimed to be information from the Russian MoD, but the MoD never confirmed 9000 casualties, the KP website reported that it was hacked.

The original article that was published:
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The edited article:
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The KP website statement:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506006785596948484
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
SimaQian said:
Nah. That wont solve the problem. Remember the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the closest nuke exchange between the Soviets and Nato. The start was US put ballistic nukes to Turkey and Italy. The Soviets thought to make it fair put nukes also in Cuba after the failed American invasion to Cuba. The resolution was Americans removed nukes in Turkey in exchange of removal of nukes in Cuba. There was a strategic balance in the 60s and 70s. The Soviets can match and check American moves.

The number of nukes did increase from then on, the strategic balance was still there until the dissolution of USSR. Nato still expanded from 60s to 80s.

Fast forward to 2020s, that strategic balance is already long lost. Nukes are everywhere in Europe and Russia is almost cornered.

The best outcome of this war Russia is hoping at least Nato to get back to pre 1997 alliance. That was an acceptable strategic balance to them.

Putin was very clear of his threat from the beginning of the Russia Ukraine conflict. Outsiders who will interfere will face consequence they never face in their history.

Probably they have a terminal decision point that enough to trigger to drop a nuke to a Nato member to see if Nato really wants to escalate. Particulary those Nato countries sending weapons to Ukraine. If Nato wont respond by nukes, Nato countries will quickly abandon that military alliance. Do Americans really really wanted to exchange destruction of their cities to say example nuking Poland or a Baltic state?

Europe will be lucky if nobody will get nuked at the end of this conflict.
Click to expand...
Best target would be England, actually, starting with London! It’s not on the continent; it’s a big trouble-maker, and no-one in Europe would be willing to escalate in retaliation and place the continent at risk!
 
daifo

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
Abominable said:
Posted and debunked. It's covering a press conference from the Russian MoD which made no mention of casualties.

Sorry.
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Article was supposedly deleted
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It seems more likely that the website was hacked than the Russian/Russian media admitting these loses so early in the campaign.
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
Tianlong said:
I don't get why some people seem to be ignoring the fact that MAD works MUTUALLY. By your logic, the US could just nuke Kaliningrad and demand from the Kremlin to accept Georgia and Ukraine into NATO along with a Belarusian regime change by nuclear ultimatum.
Where comes the idea from that Russians are so keen on burning in nuclear fire?
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They could do that, but it would mess up their economies. At some point, as Drumpf would say, what will Russia have to lose?
 
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