I'm optimistic because things must get worse before they get better. When things get worse, policymakers will be forced to make decisions that they never thought could become reality.
@Mirabo bro welcome to the forum, let me try and give you some of my view.
After Putin is done with Ukraine, what will Europe look like? Germany will continue to pay exorbitant prices for gas, or Russia will turn off the taps and send Germany into recession overnight. Poland will continue to cry for help, and at the direction of the US, NATO will continue to pour manpower and equipment into Eastern Europe.
For EU with Germany in particular, it's a self inflicted wound, Russia will not cut off oil supply as they had a contract and they're benefitting. Whatever view the West had against Russia from my perspective they're more honorable and will follow the term of the agreement except in extreme case like a total war.
Those are some of the more predictable consequences in the event of a Russian victory. But what happens next?
IF Russia won and the Collective West intensify their stance, the first to worry are the peripheries state and in my view may rapture NATO, yeah! inconceivable BUT hear me out, The Russian hadn't retaliate yet and IF she did, pummeling Lviv as its try to denazify the Whole Ukraine we may see refugee pouring into Moldova and especially Poland.
When American politicians raise the possibility of stationing nuclear arms in Poland, and it becomes abundantly clear that Poland could be razed to the ground in a battle between East and West, will they stand up for themselves, or will they continue dancing to America's tune?
American Nuclear Weapon are already in Europe, those non believe are either naive or delusional.
When it becomes clear to Germany that their time has run out, and that they must choose between economic survival or becoming a ritual sacrifice, what will they choose?
After the war settled, the hysteria died down and the hardship hit home, you will see the major capital of Europe heading to Moscow congratulating Putin for a job well done.
As much as I hate to make assumptions, let's advance this thought experiment one step further. Pessimistically, we assume that Germany and Poland give in to American pressure. The German economy is badly hurt, and all of Western Europe feel the effects, and Poland becomes the subject of every general's war plans as new Iron Curtain runs down the Polish border. With a looming crisis that could make 2009 look like a joke, the EU is distinctly at risk of falling apart.
And it's a good thing, why follow an unelected bureaucrats and dictating to the elected official how to run their affairs, Isn't that a Dictatorship?
Now what? Will France, Germany, and the rest of Western continue to kowtow to their American overlords? Will they quietly accept the collapse of the magnum opus of neoliberal instituitonalism of the 20th century, the European Economic Community? The one organization that Europe had benefited so much from? A fundamental proof that liberal internationalism can and did create better lives?
The EU project is dead except for the Euro and the economic side, we may see a return to nation state. The bureaucratic inertia is killing Europeans physically, mentally and innovatively as they become more authoritarian to impose their will.
European trade, safety standards, economic protocol, freedom of movement, all of these luxuries are enshrined in the being of the European Union that Europeans have taken for granted. Faced with the prospect of losing fifty-odd successful years of European engagement, will France, Germany, Poland, and the rest of Europe continue to blindly let America drive them off a metaphorical cliff, destroying European society as we know it once and for all? Or will European leaders finally grow a spine and stand up for themselves?
It's part of Carl Schwab reset project, to able to create something new, you have to destroy the present. I think he is a student of Mao as he try to implement an European style Cultural Revolution.
I don't pretend to know the answer. It's just interesting to think about, if mildly depressing. I understand that European leaders today have limited agency, that much is obvious. But I believe that is because the suffering hasn't yet arrived at their doorstep. The consequences of American overreach and Russian attempts to restore a balance of power remain contained in Ukraine, for now.
So are we, all we can do is speculate and give a honest opinion, I think the Europeans are not stupid and they will protest and even rebelled . We are living in interest time, as the Liberal West struggle for legitimacy as they become more Autocratic. Corruption is all around and it become more visible as the restraint among the elites greed are gone and the state institution to regulate it had been co-opted.
Still, I believe in a future for Europe, because when they arrive at a critical, existential juncture, they have a choice, the European Union, a proven alternative to the destructiveness of American hegemony. Not all countries are so fortunate to have such a choice. Ukraine certainly didn't - NATO or the EU, for them, was purely an empty promise. But France, Germany, Poland, and the rest of Europe all have so, so much to lose.
How ironic the so called Ally the US is the one destroying the EU project and she was being hailed as an extreme example of liberalism....lol. There is a meeting between Xi and Merkel last year were Xi implore that Europe may play a positive role as a Third Bloc. Well that advise is inconsequential as the sender is ASIAN!
