Ukrainian War Developments

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Tianlong

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sferrin said:
"Dude" you've been doing a shitload of complaining but nobody here has shown that NATO has actually tried to take a country through military force. Nor have they been "aggressive" against Russia. If country "A" asks to join NATO that's hardly NATO being "aggressive". Ask yourself why these governments aren't running to Russia to protect them from NATO. If Russia was a good neighbor there would be no need for countries to join NATO now would there?
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Yes. And then there is the Realpolitik between a minor power neighboring a Great Power. NATO was at least enabling minor powers in Russia's sphere of influence to antagonize Moscow. Morally, I agree each and every country can do what it wants, but un reality it is just foolish to encroach into the soi of a Great Power without anticipating a pushback in the end.
 
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Abominable

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sferrin said:
"Dude" you've been doing a shitload of complaining but nobody here has shown that NATO has actually tried to take a country through military force. Nor have they been "aggressive" against Russia. If country "A" asks to join NATO that's hardly NATO being "aggressive". Ask yourself why these governments aren't running to Russia to protect them from NATO. If Russia was a good neighbor there would be no need for countries to join NATO now would there?
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Being a member of NATO is seen as a stepping stone to EU membership (i.e. free money).

Let's say everything you say is true. Why isn't NATO helping Ukraine more? Poland and the other eastern euros want to go in now. Is NATO waiting for Ukraine to get annexed by Russia before it does something?
 
sferrin

sferrin

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Tianlong said:
Yes. And then there is the Realpolitik between a minor power neighboring a Great Power. NATO was at least enabling minor powers in Russia's sphere of influence to antagonize Moscow. Morally, I agree each and every country can do what it wants, but un reality it is just foolish to encroach into the soi of a Great Power without anticipating a pushback in the end.
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"Antagonize Moscow"? OMG the horror. You mean, like, they might not do what Moscow demanded of them? Tough shit. That's how the world works. It's not like Cuba, Mexico and Canada don't "antagonize" the US. (That isn't directed at you. I know you're just explaining Moscow's perspective.) Maybe if Moscow was a better neighbor they would have more friends instead of countries desperately trying to find protection from them.
 
Maikeru

Maikeru

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Michaelsinodef said:
This is essentially what Moscow sees (the arrow inside of Ukraine would be ignored if it became part of NATO):
View attachment 85672

Basically the border moving closer and closer to Russia, and sure Russia got nukes so realistically the chance of invasion is low, but looking back in history Moscow is rather paranoid (not to mention Russia has expressed many, many times it want NATO to stop expanding eastward).

And yes the baltic states are also part of NATO and they also threaten Russia (maybe less so due to geography with the small corridor between Kalingrad and Belarus and other), another fact is that they joined NATO much earlier (basically in the 1991-2000 period) when Russia and US relationship wasn't that bad.

Also, just gonna ignore Ukrainian War Developments (#14.482) lol?
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Thanks to Putin's actions NATO is good for another 50 years and will almost certainly expand to include Finland and Sweden, as well as a re-armed Germany.
 
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Darkon112

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ArmchairAnalyst said:
NATO didn't lose credibility when it didn't intervene during the unrest in East Germany in 1953 or during the invasion of Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968.
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Not the same situation. As all those countries we're in the WarPac.

ArmchairAnalyst said:
You are right that NATO is done if it doesn't act decisively when a memberstate is attacked.
Which is exactly why it won't happen. Especially now.
Yeah, Putin might feel as embolden as you but such miscalulations have a tendency to backfire with war.
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I agree with you though. Right now unless EU won't be economically weakened their won't be any Baltic Invasion or Moldavian for that matter. On the other hand it's ...I think a save to predict that this countries have at most a decade or two left without Russia absorbing them.
 
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enroger said:
Here's a chance for China to play Mr Nice Guy. China can organize delivery of humanitarian materials to cities currently under siege. Before I'm accused of being a bleeding heart idealist, here's some cold rational analysis:

Any western/Ukrainian humanitarian effort will be rightfully met with suspicion by the Russian, and they don't have the time/manpower to check every cargo for weapons or munition, hence the Russian will not let them through for sure. And the Russians themselves already have their logistics stretched to the limit and having trouble supply their own troops, let alone delivering food/medicine to civilians.

China come to the rescue, they can simply send supplies through Poland border towards the eastern cities. Russia can trust China to not slip in weapons so it will work. China can loudly say for all the West's so called support, it is Chinese supplies that actually reach those that need it the most. Foster good will from both sides of the war, set up for a better position to play mediator sometime down the line.... and eyeing postwar reconstruction contracts as well.
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Zero chance of humanitarian supplies getting into Mariupol. Whether they're Chinese or American.
ArmchairAnalyst said:
Don't let you zealousness fool you too much.
Ukraine isn't part of NATO and thus the organization is still credible as the defense alliance it's meant to be.
NATO didn't lose credibility when it didn't intervene during the unrest in East Germany in 1953 or during the invasion of Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968.
You are right that NATO is done if it doesn't act decisively when a memberstate is attacked.
Which is exactly why it won't happen. Especially now.
Yeah, Putin might feel as embolden as you but such miscalulations have a tendency to backfire with war.
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That's what the Americans will be telling their eastern euro colleges right now. We'll have to see what Putin's plan will be after Ukraine. To me he seems crazy enough to call NATOs bluff right now, and I don't see many signs of de-escalation from the west. If anything the opposite - calling him a war criminal, calling for him to be assassinated, etc.
 
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