Ukrainian War Developments

Possibly fake
"Supposed" Invasion plan of Belarus

FairAndUnbiased said:

Some are worried about an insurgency for Russia. but typically managing the insurgency is the easy part. British Empire did it all the time. there's Russian speakers in Ukraine. Make them a ruling class with privileges. Ukrainian speakers are made second class citizens. Arm the Russian Ukrainians while disarming Ukrainian speakers. Support the Russian speakers with Russian army units.

Now the Russian Ukrainians have the motivation to put down any insurgency. They'll be a hated collaborator class so they know if they don't put down the insurgents, they end like Rwanda. So they'll be motivated to use an iron fist and accept all Russian aid. That's the stick. The carrot part is that any Ukrainian who proves Russian ancestry and Russian language ability can be admitted to the ruling class.

Is this brutal? Yes. Does it work? Also yes.

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Really?

How did that work out for the British Empire? As soon as they had a moment of weakness, those "second class citizens" kicked them out and deposed their "elites." The Brits are now a poodle-state that can barely hang on to Scotland and Ireland.

Russia cannot afford that with Ukraine. If they ever loose Ukraine, it's game over for Russia. This isn't some far-away colony that Russia can handle like the British handled India.

Point being: There is no such thing as "managing insurgency." You either kill/disperse everyone, or you convert them to your side. There is no 3rd option of "managing insurgency." You can't rule people who don't want to be ruled by you. You will lose that battle 100% of the time, eventually. And Russia cannot loose Ukraine, ever, period. It's a strategic imperative.

This is why Russia has been treating Ukraine with kid gloves this whole time. They're going to need Ukraine to willingly accept Russian requirements. And making them "second class citizens" is the opposite of what they need to do. Russia said it wants to de-nazify Ukraine. So they are trying to convert, not rule over 'second class citizens.' That's the right approach that has a much better chance of working in the long-run. But whether or not Russia succeeds in this task, that remains to be seen.

And make no mistake: this is the only real solution for Russia. If they can't make this work, they will inevitably be crippled. The only other way Russia gets out of this dilemma is if NATO collapses first. However, that outcome cannot be forced by Russia anymore (it tried, but failed). If NATO breaks up now, it will be because of the EU/US's own internal dynamics, so Russia can't pin its hopes on that alone.

RottenPanzer said:

I actually forgot to put a question mark in the "Those are Anti-Radiation Missile" statement, but it seems it's uneditable

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The ones closest to the camera are Kh-31's, the ones on the other Su-35s are gliding pgm as gloire pointed out.

Plus it seems all are fitted with ECM pods

sheogorath said:

The ones closest to the camera are Kh-31's, the ones on the other Su-35s are gliding pgm as gloire pointed out.

Plus it seems all are fitted with ECM pods

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Don't know if they have designed ECM pods to counter their own system easily. They know what they are against more or less. Most of radar guided sam are Russian made in Ukraine. If they are not able to counter what they sell or build, it's a bit odd.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Haha. Don't worry about it. Based on the recent posts, it looks like some of the senior members here don't know what MANPADS stand for as well. So you aren't alone.

On a more serious note, yes since that also makes the vehicle even easier to target. Plus, missiles don't need to immediately kill; they just need to at least disable the vehicle. To make matters worse, since missiles can be rapidly improved when it comes to penetration, that thicker armor would quickly become obsolete. With that in mind and excluding tech like APS's, the pace of battle would drastically slow down.

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One cannot make man portable missile launchers against aircraft or amour to large...There comes a point where they will no longer be man portable be be able to take out very thick armour...

Mohsin77 said:

If NATO breaks up now, it will be because of the EU/US's own internal dynamics, so Russia can't pin its hopes on that alone.

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EU's Inflation rising, industries and agriculture sector will be and already are being crippled by this sanctions. Which will likely I think by June/July will be severely felt. Replacements for Russian wheat, fertilizers. metals, etc There is non on the horizon. If you add gas and oil to that. If Russia pulls the plug on those in the right time. This would grind especially Germany to a halt. And might take the entire EU with it. Because Benelux depends very much on German economy. And eastern Europe itself has a pretty high inflation right now. And from what I hear the Italians aren't doing all that well either.

I could of course be full of shit in this regard.

Goddamn Cloak of the Undead King

Well they did ressurect Vasily Bykov.

Darkon112 said:

EU's Inflation rising, industries and agriculture sector will be and already are being crippled by this sanctions. Which will likely I think by June/July will be severely felt. Replacements for Russian wheat, fertilizers. metals, etc There is non on the horizon. If you add gas and oil to that. If Russia pulls the plug on those in the right time. This would grind especially Germany to a halt. And might take the entire EU with it. Because Benelux depends very much on German economy. And eastern Europe itself has a pretty high inflation right now. And from what I hear the Italians aren't doing all that well either.

I could of course be full of shit in this regard.

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I think you are on track. Not sure how long Germany can sustain this level of PPI changes and it is not even March yet.

Mohsin77 said:

And make no mistake: this is the only real solution for Russia. If they can't make this work, they will inevitably be crippled. The only other way Russia gets out of this dilemma is if NATO collapses first. However, that outcome cannot be forced by Russia anymore (it tried, but failed). If NATO breaks up now, it will be because of the EU/US's own internal dynamics, so Russia can't pin its hopes on that alone.

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Defeating Ukraine effectively is the end of NATO as a credible alliance. Putin can dissolve it for real after Ukraine is taken by going into a Baltic country if he wants to. If it happens the same arguments will be made as in Ukraine about no fly zones. When push comes to shove no senior American politician wants MAD, they'd sooner give up a few eastern European states to Putin and make peace than die in a nuclear war.

It also vindicates China's policy of not making alliances. In a nuclear age unless you are ready to literally die for them, it's not an alliance.