Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Russia will have to Kalibrate it's response carefully.
Alright. Caught up on the thread again. Clearly, not much has happened since people are arguing over American territorial acquisition and what China ought to be doing. Lots of decisive action on the ground. Clearly.
1. Mauripol is still a work in progress and not fallen. I expected to have done so by today. I was wrong. It sounds like by the 27th. Will I be wrong again? Two different videos have emerged of the BTRs in combat. However, don't take that as a positive for the Ukrainians. The Russians are well within the city center. It is a matter of time.
2. As for the Kinzhal missile, Russia did claim to use it. The US claims to have successfully tracked it. The videos and pictured released have been shown to be...doubtful in nature. That doesn't mean it was not used, just that a dubious decision was made by the PR department. Which totally shocks me. Really. Why would Russia use a Kinzhal? It could be they are having issues with having enough Iskandrs. I have a suspicion they are just testing it. About Syria, I wrote to friends 5+ years ago, in Soviet Russia, war trains you: it was a response to all the experimental equipment (like Uran-9 and the Su-57) showing up in Syria. The war in Ukraine isn't near peer, but...
3. Strelkov, fsck that guy. He murdered and tortured people I knew in 2014. Just to point out this isn't just my personal bias speaking, the Russian government doesn't even want him in a war that he has experience on the ground for. His competence should be questioned: until the Russian army intervened in 2014, he was losing to the Ukrainian army that existed then. Take ANYTHING he says with massive grains of salt.
4. Doubt everyone's maps. Doubt everyone's PR. Doubt every last claim until verified with another source not retweeting the original. I really wish we had another source of info via non Western, non pro Russian sources with people or reporters on the ground in Ukraine. As for Oryx, I suspect there are dupes and possibly even misIDed equipment. However, that's not unexpected. Also, the list is clearly not all inclusive as not every piece of equipment will be photodocumented. I think it's a fairly good tracker. With those numbers, the Russians have lost over 15 BTG+tanks battalions. Just so I am being honest, Oryx's list of Ukrainian equipment is wildly undercounting and definitely not accurate.
Russia is winning. However, if taking Mauripol does not actually free up troops and an offensive is not launched afterwards, I think the Russian army and its attempt to conquer Ukraine are in trouble.
Last bit as I still question Putin's endgame. Why? Pavel Slobodchikov is reported having been shot and possibly killed along with his wife. He is a member of the 'Kherson Rescue Committee' appointed by the occupying Russians. It is a small thing, but like when I noted the insignia on Russian tanks before the invasion convinced me there was going to be one, this act convinces me a long term occupation or a puppet regime is questionable.
1. Mauripol is still a work in progress and not fallen. I expected to have done so by today. I was wrong. It sounds like by the 27th. Will I be wrong again? Two different videos have emerged of the BTRs in combat. However, don't take that as a positive for the Ukrainians. The Russians are well within the city center. It is a matter of time.
2. As for the Kinzhal missile, Russia did claim to use it. The US claims to have successfully tracked it. The videos and pictured released have been shown to be...doubtful in nature. That doesn't mean it was not used, just that a dubious decision was made by the PR department. Which totally shocks me. Really. Why would Russia use a Kinzhal? It could be they are having issues with having enough Iskandrs. I have a suspicion they are just testing it. About Syria, I wrote to friends 5+ years ago, in Soviet Russia, war trains you: it was a response to all the experimental equipment (like Uran-9 and the Su-57) showing up in Syria. The war in Ukraine isn't near peer, but...
3. Strelkov, fsck that guy. He murdered and tortured people I knew in 2014. Just to point out this isn't just my personal bias speaking, the Russian government doesn't even want him in a war that he has experience on the ground for. His competence should be questioned: until the Russian army intervened in 2014, he was losing to the Ukrainian army that existed then. Take ANYTHING he says with massive grains of salt.
4. Doubt everyone's maps. Doubt everyone's PR. Doubt every last claim until verified with another source not retweeting the original. I really wish we had another source of info via non Western, non pro Russian sources with people or reporters on the ground in Ukraine. As for Oryx, I suspect there are dupes and possibly even misIDed equipment. However, that's not unexpected. Also, the list is clearly not all inclusive as not every piece of equipment will be photodocumented. I think it's a fairly good tracker. With those numbers, the Russians have lost over 15 BTG+tanks battalions. Just so I am being honest, Oryx's list of Ukrainian equipment is wildly undercounting and definitely not accurate.
Russia is winning. However, if taking Mauripol does not actually free up troops and an offensive is not launched afterwards, I think the Russian army and its attempt to conquer Ukraine are in trouble.
Last bit as I still question Putin's endgame. Why? Pavel Slobodchikov is reported having been shot and possibly killed along with his wife. He is a member of the 'Kherson Rescue Committee' appointed by the occupying Russians. It is a small thing, but like when I noted the insignia on Russian tanks before the invasion convinced me there was going to be one, this act convinces me a long term occupation or a puppet regime is questionable.
Oh wait, you said MILITARY, because he is quite known for his conquests, lol
Still callin’ it for Ukraine!!!
I see a lot of Americans saying this, but I've not seen a single Russian or western analysis that made that claim before the war. Care to back that up?
This (Glasgow) dude, Juan Sinmiedo, posted many videos on Mariupol, the fortunate local residents who survive the detentions as the Human Shields... as well as some torture videos of the civilians by various armed elements of Ukraine. This one is merely an intro of what are posted there.
Take a look there on your own... plenty!
His backup ID at Twitter just in case being nuked:
No wonder there are many vids!
His Telegram Channel is more descriptive!
Take a look there on your own... plenty!
His backup ID at Twitter just in case being nuked:
No wonder there are many vids!
His Telegram Channel is more descriptive!
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I more or less concur with your other points, but I would have to disagree with this one. Two days ago, Poland announced that they will formally propose to NATO the deployment of a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. After that, Russia fired off a Kinzhal yesterday. Russia most likely did it as a warning to NATO that they have an in-service weapon that can easily beat its current defenses. As for the testing aspect, you don't want to test weapons in the middle of a battlefield since: 1. If intact, it can be stolen by the enemy and you don't have the ability to examine what went wrong 2. The enemy would be aware of what you are trying to hit and respond to the threat accordingly.
Ukraine doesn't even have to "win". They just need to drag it out long enough that Russia decides to pack it in. See Afghanistan and the many countries that have stepped up to the plate there only to go home.
He might just be facetious when he said that...
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