Ukrainian War Developments

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MortyandRick

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That guy is not part of the Russian government. He volunteered to join the fight in Donbass in 2014. He seems to be a Russian nationalist and monarchist. So do not expect his perspective to match that of the government or to reflect current conditions. I doubt the Russian government would not have all sorts of contingencies baked into the operational plan.
Ok good to know. But wasn’t he the defence minister of DPR? Seems like he feels the current operation is a disaster and Russia is stuck. In which case Russia should fully mobilize and take all of Ukraine.
 

Abominable

Major
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I expect the next leadership in both Russia and China to be way more assertive and militaristic than either Putin or Xi. So there should be tense relations over the next decade and a half. In the case of China the people behind the campaign for the pacification of Xinjiang will rise into power. The Russian leadership will have lost any illusions of cooperation with the US/EU and at best will have a policy of splendid isolation.
For China that's almost certainly bound to happen. The older generations is now seen as too trusting of the west.

Who do you see taking over after Putin? What do you think are the chances of it being someone from the communist party? If Russia is forced to nationalise foreign assets and trade mainly with China, it seems the obvious choice.
 

RottenPanzer

Junior Member
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Part 2:

"SP": - That is, we are talking about a much longer armed conflict than the one planned in Moscow at the beginning?

- Yes, definitely.

"SP": - I see. And how do you assess the pace of the operation?

- It was not a discovery for me that the Ukrainian army would offer us fierce resistance. For me, it was not news that a significant part of the population of Ukraine, which in 2014 was ready to meet us with flowers, either turned away from the Russian Federation, or took a clearly hostile position, or gloomy-neutral-passive perceives the arrival of Russian troops.

This, I repeat, is not a discovery for me. Why was it a discovery for the Kremlin? It turns out that the picture given to the highest military and political leadership of the country by our relevant specialists turned out to be, let's say, not too reliable. And on the basis of this unreliable information, a military operation is planned. Which at first was not aimed at classic military tasks - the priority defeat and destruction of enemy manpower and equipment, rapid advance in some key areas.

As a result, the forces at our disposal are now advancing in five main directions. Northern - to Kiev, immediately on both banks of the Dnieper. Then to Kharkiv, to Mariupol on the southern flank. And from Crimea in two divergent directions.

"SP": - To Nikolaev and Kherson?

- Yes, on the one hand. On the other hand, to the same Mariupol. And on the curve - in Zaporozhye.

Now, most likely, we are making a belated regrouping. We form impact fists. But it's much more difficult to do than it would be originally.
Frankly speaking, I assumed, based on the usual military expediency, that the main goal in Ukraine would be the early encirclement and defeat of the main enemy forces, which are concentrated in Donbass. And in the first week of the operation, if it were not scattered like we did, such a goal could have been achieved quite easily.

In the same Crimean direction, our troops met very weak resistance. And they could not go to Mariupol, but immediately hit through Gulyaipole to the north. To cut off enemy communications on the way to the Dnieper (former Dnepropetrovsk). And the group that is coming south of Kharkiv could break through to meet them. And if these groups are sufficiently strengthened, the task of creating a huge "boiler" in the Donetsk region would probably be solved in the first week.

Now that the enemy's Donbass group has not retreated, but continues to fight on heavily fortified borders, ours are trying to attack it head-on.

Our troops storm heavily fortified enemy fortress cities. And in fact, undividedly owning the initiative on the front line, unconditionally dominating the air, we nevertheless play according to the rules proposed by the opponent. That's how it happened?

The Ukrainian military understands that in the open field, when Russian aviation constantly "hangs" over their heads and missile troops strike, nothing good "shines" in a combined arms battle. Therefore, they bet on retaining the most important cities. And in general, all cities where you can defend yourself for a long time. With a gradual retreat in all other directions.

The bet is on the fight in residential buildings, where our advantage in aviation, artillery, missiles is leveled very much. Plus - where there are a lot of civilians, which, of course, strongly restrain Russia in the use of firepower.

This is both Mariupol and Volnovakha, during which there were fierce battles for seven days. This is Severodonetsk and the Severodonetsk-Rubezhny defensive knot, which defends as a real fortress. This is Gulyaipole, this is Nikolaev.

And there is still Odessa ahead, which will be feverishly strengthened for a month. Ahead - Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog.
In all these cities, the enemy creates fortresses. Brings troops there and prepares them in advance for the fight surrounded. Sets the task of defending as long as possible. I repeat: now in fact we are playing according to the rules of the opponent. The enemy very competently chose passive defense.

"SP": - Does he play black?

- Yes, black. But there is a time factor. To delay the course of hostilities in all possible is a conscious strategy not only of the Ukrainian side, but also of its curators.

"SP": - So the bet is on the exhaustion of Russia?

- Of course. They want to leave the Russian Federation completely destroyed cities, the restoration of which will fall on the economy of our country with additional burdens. And the population is completely ruined, angry, cursing everything in the world. And that's what they plan to do in every city.

What can the Russian Federation oppose in this situation? Should there be a way out of this deadlock? Apparently, it may consist in a sharp increase in the number of the fighting Russian group.

Hoping on an easy hike to Ukraine within a maximum of a few weeks, the Russian authorities were not prepared for the current situation. Anyone can clearly see it. The quality of the Russian state apparatus may not be lower than the skirting board. But somewhere in the area. Therefore, I don't know how to mobilize him quickly, conditionally speaking. "United Russia" does not even closely resemble the CPSU (b), which in the most difficult conditions of 1941 managed to ensure order and raise the whole country on alarm.

Based on this, I repeat once again: we have no years in reserve in Ukraine. We have months at best. And in order to win during these months and at least smooth out the consequences of a powerful blow to our economy and social sphere, it is necessary not to bring water with glasses, but to establish normal mobilization work. Both in the economy and in the military sense of the word.

"SP": - Igor Vsevolodovich, I will bring you back to our November conversation. Then I invited you to introduce yourself as our military leadership. And I asked to answer how you would have acted if the current special operation had started at that time. You said then: "After the defeat of the Ukrainian army, I would establish a line from Kharkov to Tiraspol, thus depriving Kiev of half of the population and all access to the sea. And then he would say, "Let's put up or goodbye." Is this a real forecast today?

- Not anymore.

"SP": - So time is missed or what?

- A year ago, I was too optimistic about the situation. The chances of such an outcome have already been missed.

If in 2014 the case ended with the defeat of the Ukrainian army, and our troops reached Odessa, Kiev would simply dream of making peace on any terms. As long as we don't take Kiev and kick them out.

If the Russian army now stops on the line along the Dnieper, Ukraine, even if it goes to some truce, it will be a truce only for a month or two. For which they will pump up forces, receive weapons, master them, retrain and prepare new combat-ready units. And before that, the enemy won't just sit in defense. He will attack us continuously and everywhere with sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

In this war, we have only one alternative: either to completely eliminate this regime. Without any denamification, it will happen by itself. Or we'll feel bad.

So we'll have to go to Lviv. To the very border. That's the only thing you need to plan in Moscow.


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I want to put this translation here because it’s a good analysis of Russian shortcomings. Hope you guys read it

This just imply that the operation was doomed from the start
That guy is not part of the Russian government. He volunteered to join the fight in Donbass in 2014. He seems to be a Russian nationalist and monarchist. So do not expect his perspective to match that of the government or to reflect current conditions. I doubt the Russian government would not have all sorts of contingencies baked into the operational plan.
He is? hmmmmmmmm

The source is Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, literally a CIA propaganda outlet.

If Russian casualties are even a fraction or remotely as high as Ukraine/U.S. says, the internet would be filled with pictures of dead Russian soldiers. The fact that the Ukrainian side continues to release and reuse the small handful of footage / pictures implies they have no real evidence of actual Russian losses to back up their claims.
There are already pictures of dead Russian soldiers though?
 

Abominable

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RT dropping hints on who's next after Ukraine. Maybe you should have skipped the parade this year Latvia.

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Ethnic groups​

As of March 2011,
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form about 62.1% of the population, while 26.9% are
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,
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3.3%,
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2.2%,
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2.2%,
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1.2%,
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0.3%,
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0.3%,
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0.1%,
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0.1% and others 1.3%.
 
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ArmchairAnalyst

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They are that braindead. Sorry. It might not have happened with the previous leadership in France and Germany in the 1990s or even 2000s but the current leadership is pure braindamage. Especially the current one in Germany which is just out of its depth. Remains to be seen but true that Germany in many ways lacks experience being at the forefront of the geopolitical grand stage. Hence the need for the French (for better or worse).
There are also next to zero chances of Franco-German economic or military integration. France and Germany are already deeply connected ecomically like most of the EU. Military integration is severely lacking though. The Germans still think they dominate the EU economically Which they do or I missed some news recently and the French will be hard pressed to get military-technical cooperation with Germany to work. Definitely. There is a huge stigma in Germany if you do anything related to the MIC or work in the armed forces. Very true but that's likely to change now with what's happening in Ukraine. How much remains to be seen.
Of course, this might change. If the US does manage to convince the EU to continue cutting economic ties with China I expect German industry to collapse. Huh? In that case they might find themselves forced to accept some sort of alliance with France.
Anyways, I was writing about the potential political shift towards a stronger Franco-Germanic world view in the EU without the British (Anglo) as a counterweight. Not purely military aspects which will be dominated by the U.S. for the foreseeable future.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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There is just too much disconnect between French and German security requirements for proper cooperation to happen.
Franco-British military cooperation always made a lot more sense because both had former colonial police actions to do and always had more expeditionary forces. The German army was always more defensive. They only sent troops abroad with the Afghan conflict with NATO and that was pretty much a disaster.
Plus like we discussed here they keep dropping the ball on all sorts of military-technical projects even when it makes sense to join efforts. Like the next generation Tiger helicopter replacement program. Where Germany decided to buy the AH-64 Apache.
 

Sardaukar20

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CGTN echoing the Russian media. Confirming the use of the the Khinzal hypersonic cruise missile by Russia.

So that would mean thr first combat debut of the Khinzal. We would have to wait for footages of the aftermath of the impact.

I don't think that Russia using the Khinzal is out of desperation. They have the opportunity to use it in combat, and so they did. The US did that plenty of times. Like their use of their MOAB in Afghanistan and Iraq.
 

ArmchairAnalyst

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RT dropping hints on who's next after Ukraine. Maybe you should have skipped the parade this year Latvia.

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Ethnic groups​

As of March 2011,
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form about 62.1% of the population, while 26.9% are
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,
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3.3%,
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2.2%,
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2.2%,
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1.2%,
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0.3%,
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0.3%,
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0.1%,
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0.1% and others 1.3%.
:rolleyes:

Next: Germany. Six million Russian-speaking citizens (approx. 7%). And all ze Germans used to be real nazis too.

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Koala

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:rolleyes:

Next: Germany. Six million Russian-speaking citizens (approx. 7%). And all ze Germans used to be real nazis too.

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Very, very sad to read, but not unexpected. From the Corona delusion - especially against unvaccinated people - right into the next one. Now the Putin / Ukraine delusion and the bad russians.

People lost their common sense and, no surprise, it is very often the so called "interlectuals" who are up front. Like before they abuse their power to humilate children and their parents and others who can not defend properly. Disgusting.
 
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