Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Can someone explain what 'Russia failed and falls' and 'Russia defeated' when NATO is not involved directly and Kiev is surrounded? It doesn't help your point to be hyperbolic and vague... By all metrics, Russia is WINNING, albeit at an intense economic cost, but it will still survive with partial Chinese financial support.
Short of direct NATO intervention, I don't think anybody here is claiming Ukraine has a chance of winning at this point. They're getting absolutely slaughtered with missile and air strikes.

The only question is if Ukrainian eastern front hold long enough for economic and 5G warfare to have an affect. If rumours are true that America unfroze Russian assets to let them avoid a default then the former is unlikely. As for the 5G stuff, we'll have to see.

In the meantime we'll have to endure more stories about Putin firing his personal chef, his dog sh*tting the Ukrainian flag colours in protest, and so on.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
"Says used Kinzhal missile against military warehouse in Delyatin of Ivano-Frankivsk region yesterday"
...
He also claimed that the Russians seems on shortage with Iskander, Kh, Kalibr CMs and that's why they started to use their new Hypersonic missile
I don't think this is the case tbh but what do you think?
The use of Kinzhal on Ukraine at this point is a demonstration of strength as a signal to NATO.
The Russians still should have plenty of cruise missiles left. They ordered over a thousand of them some years back. They should not have used but a small fraction of those thus far.

I think I read that a few years back. If I’m not mistaken, it was the General that attempted to transition from Divisions to Brigades.
There was a plan in Russia to use smaller units with better equipment. But after the declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO in the future those plans had to be changed and Russia went back to division structure. Small units for expeditionary warfare are unsuitable for large regional wars like the current war in Ukraine. It also places more pressure on top level unit command.

Russia made plenty of mistakes but the biggest was underestimating Ukrainian resistance, holding back their firepower and have bad logistical issues. All of these 3 combined with tough Ukrainian resistance has led us to this point. Many analyst believed that Russia would sweep through eastern Ukraine simply because of the flat terrain.
But they have swept through flat terrain. The resistance seems mostly confined to cities. In a way this is a lot like Iraq conflict on a somewhat larger scale. Since Ukraine is a larger country with 2x the population of Iraq and external support.

They didn’t foresee Ukraine to resist this hard. Also Ukraine has been prepping for this type of war for 8 years. Digging in defensive position and fortifications.
Ukraine's forces are mostly trained to fight insurgents in Donbass not a regular army. If you look at their level of equipment you would see this.

Plus Ukraine has put their most experienced, most equipped fighters in the east. Also the cities are heavily militarized.
Mariupol is falling pretty quickly. Compare conflict with Fallujah which had half the population.

Putin was really naive to think that Kiev would surrender quickly.
Except there is no evidence the Russians ever thought that would be the case.

Russia does not have enough troops to conquer Ukraine.
They do have those troops. They are just not deployed in the field. Most seem to be kept in reserve in case of conflict with NATO.

And what exactly do you think it means for China to be next? Do you think America is going to invade China? Do you think Europe is going to do that? What can these countries really do? What are you afraid of?
It would not be the first time. If Russia's government did collapse and they used Russia as a springboard for invasion of China in the future what do you think would happen?

If Russia did not invade Ukraine, what kind of terrible things do you think were going to happen to China?
A lot of political forces in the US were not content with collapse of Soviet Union and wanted to break Russian Federation into smaller pieces. Hence support for Chechen conflict. They also want to do the same to China hence support for insurgencies in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.

Au contraire my friend. This system is more precise than conventional rockets. They can use it in dense populated area without risking large collateral damage. Russia won´t go "full syria" (albeit "full syria" is a western propaganda term) it is one of the "moral" pillars of the special operation. What we are seeing in the last days is a increasingly use of more complex and precise wepons systems.
The latest versions of Tornado MLRS have Stellar navigation i.e. GLONASS. Should be around 1m accurate.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
To me it looks more like your typical peaceful demonstration than unrest. And not a particular huge one.
So impossible to tell if it represents the common Bulgarian sentiment or not.
Most likely a vocal miniority supporting Russia and those exist in every European country. Nothing new.
Now compare this to one from the Czech Republic:
There's far more support in Czech Republic for Ukraine than Russia, I don't deny that.

The reason I posted that was that if a country like Bulgaria "flipped", it could throw a spanner into NATO plans. Not saying it's going to happen but it is worth keeping an eye on. Bulgaria is the most pro-Russian, but there is Greece and North Macedonia as well. There is Turkey as well which is always a wildcard.
 

williamhou

Junior Member
Nope. Russia getting defeated means that China is next.
I am surprised that you can't understand this simple geopolitical fact.

In simple terms, China needs to to everything it can do to avoid a Russia defeat.
In any case, Russia will win but it is still important to keep in mind the wider geostrategic international environment

China needs to to everything it can do to avoid a Russia defeat - that is a very dangerous thought. While Russia should be supported whenever possible, it is not in China's interest to become an international pariah, there is a limit to what you could do in this environment.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
To me it looks more like your typical peaceful demonstration than unrest. And not a particular huge one.
So impossible to tell if it represents the common Bulgarian sentiment or not.
Most likely a vocal miniority supporting Russia and those exist in every European country. Nothing new.
Now compare this to one from the Czech Republic:

Is that Victoria Nuland on the cellphone in the second left window on the fourth floor?

That's a big production with stage platform and huge billboard TV, NED/CIA is spending some big dollars for Ukraine FUD then.
Most of them might as well have been there just for fun and beer, who knows. It's definitely staged for optics and one hell of a good show hollywood style.

On the other hands, the other one seems organic, spontaneous and genuine. Just an observation.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
China needs to to everything it can do to avoid a Russia defeat - that is a very dangerous thought. While Russia should be supported whenever possible, it is not in China's interest to become an international pariah, there is a limit to what you could do in this environment.
It's impossible for China to become an "international pariah." The term itself is meaningless - the "international community" is a small clique composed of Washington and its flunkies, they don't decide who is and isn't an "international pariah." The West cannot sanction China on anything like the scale they sanctioned Russia without destroying themselves. The sanctions against Russia alone could still wind up destroying European economies.

The US doesn't feel much pain sanctioning Russia, that's the reason the West is so gung-ho about those sanctions. The US would feel immense pain sanctioning China, which guarantees it won't happen.
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
There's far more support in Czech Republic for Ukraine than Russia, I don't deny that.

The reason I posted that was that if a country like Bulgaria "flipped", it could throw a spanner into NATO plans. Not saying it's going to happen but it is worth keeping an eye on. Bulgaria is the most pro-Russian, but there is Greece and North Macedonia as well. There is Turkey as well which is always a wildcard.
If public support should flip in any European country I don't think it would have much impacts on NATO plans. Too much internal discipline in the organization. It did survive being practically aimless and braindead for decades after all :D
The EU on the other hand could get really cringy. Just the nature of its inner workings and inherent weaknesses.
Putin knows those as well.
 

Intrepid

Major
The reason I posted that was that if a country like Bulgaria "flipped", it could throw a spanner into NATO plans. Not saying it's going to happen but it is worth keeping an eye on. Bulgaria is the most pro-Russian ...
The Bulgarian rift can be described as follows: "In the midst of Putin's war in Ukraine, Bulgarians have Russia to thank for the past - and to condemn for the present".
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Clearly, china cares about it's geopolitical relationships.

Let's put it this way, if people don't think Russia needs Chinese military assistance, then there is no problem if they don't provide such assistance to the Russians. What's the blowback here then?
The million dollar question is whether Russia made the request or not. Yes, China care about geopolitical relationships. If Russia made the request, which relationship matter more to China? Sino-Russian one or Sino-Euro one? What will happen if Russia failed? Pissing off the Europeans means losing some businesses. Losing Russia may very well mean enemies at the gates. What do you think the Chinese leadership will do?
 

williamhou

Junior Member
Guys, what are your thoughts on the ongoing negotiation between Ukraine and Russia?

It seems most of you are saying "Russia is winning / Russia must win" - which implies the ongoing peace negotiation is not serious for some reason.

As Russian advances has mostly stalled for the time being, it will likely take some time before significant military advantage is achieved if diplomacy fails.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top