Ukrainian War Developments

FairAndUnbiased said:

Uh yes they have. Why were the kimchi and hanbok incidents escalated from social media trolling to a foreign ministry level incident?

Why did they now put THAAD in South Korea?

Why are they building SSBs and threatening to build carriers?

Why is the new presidential candidate a hardcore anti Chinese racist and neocon?

Because China failed. Appeasement of South Korea failed to elicit the desired behavior and has now resulted in a deadly existential threat less than 500 km from Tianjin.

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What "deadly existential threat"? Wow, dude, you are not only giving the South Korean 棒子 a hard-on, you are literally making them cream their pants!!

First of all, China being nice and civil to other country, because She wants to up-hold her global reputation, specifically aimed at earning good-wills from the greater "Asia, Africa and Latin America" (亚非拉).

If a tiny little SK is capable of being an existential threat to China, the US and her Asian minions would have LONG invested in this strategy to make it a reality, regardless of what China can ever do to prevent it. South Korea does NOT in any possible universe right now have the ability to be an existential to China today. This is the geopolitical/geostrategic reality GIVEN.

You guys are contributing to Media War unwittingly EVERY DAY! This is because most of you have NO knowledge base and understanding of Social psychology and human group behavior what-so-ever.

This is in essence the same bullshit like in 2014 when Taiwanese media clown spreads the rumor that "Ukraine turmoil will stop QC-280 (GT25000) delivery to China, and thus no more 052Ds". Or how in 2020, the rumor spread by the same horde of Taiwanese clowns that "US cut off global micro-chip supply to China, and thus no more 052D, J10C, J20; because the Mainland will run out of radar and opto-electronic components". These are only to spread fear and concern in the general publics, who statistically speaking, don't have the necessary knowledge bases to debunk the blatant bullshit in these statements. These bullshit are all part of the same damn Media War, because people ONLY look at how information are distorted, instead of what the exact MOTIVES is behind such deliberate distortions.

Pardon me for being haughty, but I have take quite a few philosophy courses in my undergrad. And one thing I remember to have learned from my professor in a continental philosophy course (analyzing Nietzsche) is that simply speaking, the Nietzsche approach could be condensed as simply asking the question of "what is the motive" of such construct.

This Ukraine conflict/war is a very very good example for us to learn and analyze Media War. Because this is ultimately a personal "war" for each and everyone of us to keep being a truly independently thinking person.

Are you gonna do like some of us here who simply repeat the same punch line, quoting the same sources, just to pick a side and make a stand (a statement)? To me, this kind of action is just a brainless act of the same "war of rhetoric" that is of the same spirit of the Media War, and draw people into this kind of red-vs-blue conflict and strife.

I think we need to look at our own feelings, opinions and impulses that are imbedded in each of our own posts and statements here, and ask yourself "just what exactly is the motive of these words"? We need to look deeply into what is the implication of your statement being thrown into the internet space? What consequences are you aiming to actualize?

williamhou said:

As Russian advances has mostly stalled for the time being, it will likely take some time before significant military advantage is achieved if diplomacy fails.

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See, that's the problem when you base an argument on false premises.

vincent said:

The million dollar question is whether Russia made the request or not.

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Russia is a military superpower that only committed a fraction of its forces to Ukraine. What equipment it did ask from China likely predates the invasion, not in response to the invasion. US likes to take a grain of truth and stretch it to paint China as a baddie accomplice.

vincent said:

Yes, China care about geopolitical relationships. If Russia made the request, which relationship matter more to China? Sino-Russian one or Sino-Euro one?

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China can provide military aid that has 'plausible deniability' (e.g., Soviet-era aircraft supplies/parts, ammunition, civilian dual-use drones), but China should not provide Wing Loongs, Divine Eagles, HongQiao SAMs, etc... It's not just the Europeans/Americans, but China's diplomatic credibility and integrity to the third-world nations (e.g., if it says it's neutral, then at least pretend like it)

vincent said:

What will happen if Russia failed?

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How do you define "Russian failure"? NATO is not directly involved, so what is "Failure" in this Ukraine war?

vincent said:

Pissing off the Europeans means losing some businesses. Losing Russia may very well mean enemies at the gates.

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What do you mean "Losing Russia"? NATO is not directly involved, so what is "Losing Russia" mean in this context?

vincent said:

What do you think the Chinese leadership will do?

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Stay neutral, circumvent sanctions, provide aid that has plausible deniability or civilian dual-use purpose? Like what China does with Iran and North Korea and other pariah states?

zgx09t said:

Europe doesn't have the necessary financial wherewithal to actually followup on any meaningful threats, real of imaginary; even US doesn't have it. China can perfectly hit the collective west's financial jugular that will make 08 sub prime crisis look like a coffee spill on a lunch room table. Nobody has the kind of trillions of dollars to clean all the ensuing mess up. Granted Russia doesn't have the financial heft to inflict the substantial damage yet, but still ISDA has their work cut out for them for a few years to come. There is a reason Putin, and soon China too eventually, drew up a list of unfriendly nations.

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At this point, you should realize that White people's Western World is the omnipotent GOD for him.
How dare you suggest that his Western White GOD's omnipotence have any rooms of being under doubt?!?!?!

After all, even the tiniest White Western country (even as small as Liechtenstein) can annihilate China by waving their little hands. The only reason why China is still standing is because his Mighty Western European GODs are merciful.

P.S. As for whether this GOD is singular or plural, well, that's a divine mystery.

Insignius said:

Early quitters never win. China should have pushed into Hanoi and replaced the government and army command. Vietnam was utterly spent after their war with the US and if China accepted additional losses, it would have also remodeled Vietnam's diplomacy lastingly.

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China in 1979 was in no condition to remodel anyone. China just came out of Cultural Revolution which completely destroyed the social fabric and cohesion

Phead128 said:

China is forever targeted by US/NATO, with or without Russia. It's a matter of using Russia to distract the West and reduce containment pressure until China can grow into an Second SuSuperpower.

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China is a superpower already. The question is whether it will be the principal one and how that transition will go with the former principal one. History tell us that those transitions can be anything from tranquille to extremely violent. Sometimes those transitions also fails with the rising superpower failing and slipping back into great power status or worse.
Case in point Russia.

ArmchairAnalyst said:

If public support should flip in any European country I don't think it would have much impacts on NATO plans. Too much internal discipline in the organization. It did survive being practically aimless and braindead for decades after all
The EU on the other hand could get really cringy. Just the nature of its inner workings and inherent weaknesses.
Putin knows those as well.

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It would have an impact on Ukraine's accession to NATO.
The Polish Mig fiasco doesn't say much for internal discipline. I'm sure behind the scenes the current peacekeeper plan is a mess too. No to a no fly zone, but you want to send out peacekeepers? It doesn't make sense.

I think you're right that the EU will have problems long term, especially when this conflict filters out into domestic politics. What happens if Poland becomes more far right, for instance.

williamhou said:

Guys, what are your thoughts on the ongoing negotiation between Ukraine and Russia?

It seems most of you are saying "Russia is winning / Russia must win" - which implies the ongoing peace negotiation is not serious for some reason.

As Russian advances has mostly stalled for the time being, it will likely take some time before significant military advantage is achieved if diplomacy fails.

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Still no sign of either side budging, despite what's being reported in the media.

I think the only meaningful negotiations right now are for humanitarian corridors, exchange of POWs and the like. Both sides seem to content to keep fighting for now.

SampanViking said:

Just my late 2 penneth on the Biden Xi virtual summit
Concentrate on further security integration, especially in respects of Air Defense and EW/ECM etc. This can mean deploying specialist Chinese Units into European Russia, in the same way that the US deploys into NATO Europe.

Further, no need to sell arms to Russia, simply lease factories or sell components.

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That. It is the Chinese industrial might that really worries the west. In a sense, if all in, China to Russia would be more significant than US to Europe during WWII. Hence, sales from China can take many forms and factors. US knows that once China is in, either we are all in WWIII or at least we are in parallel universes from that point on. And US is not sure the west could "win".

gelgoog said:

tphuang said:

And what exactly do you think it means for China to be next? Do you think America is going to invade China? Do you think Europe is going to do that? What can these countries really do? What are you afraid of?

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It would not be the first time. If Russia's government did collapse and they used Russia as a springboard for invasion of China in the future what do you think would happen?

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Why would the Russian gov't collapse? Is that because of US/EU sanctions?

You give the US too much credit. Overwhelming US/EU sanctions could not topple the Iranian or North Korean gov't, and NATO has no stomach for war with Russia. So I don't see what people are so paranoid about "Russia gov't collapse/defeat/failure" because so long as China gives partial economic support, Russia will survive (just like North Korea or Iran).... China should just do the bare basic minimum to keep Russia alive. Nothing more, nothing less.

vincent said:

China in 1979 was in no condition to remodel anyone. China just came out of Cultural Revolution which completely destroyed the social fabric and cohesion

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Thank you for pointing that out. At times people do not think much of what they say or write before making an issue. As things have turned out, China does not have a single regret about not "remodeling" Vietnam.