Ukrainian War Developments

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Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia does not have enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

And what exactly do you think it means for China to be next? Do you think America is going to invade China? Do you think Europe is going to do that? What can these countries really do? What are you afraid of?

If Russia did not invade Ukraine, what kind of terrible things do you think were going to happen to China?
Like I said, there are a lot of people how are very active thinker sensitive to ideas and like to predict future with their young inexperienced mind. They jump at every little info, and always churn out these unrealistically extreme bright and/or extreme dark future. It's jittery and annoying (一惊一乍).

They just need to practice critical thinking for a while longer. It's a good start, better than being apathetic.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
China can provide military aid that has 'plausible deniability' (e.g., Soviet-era aircraft supplies/parts, ammunition, civilian dual-use drones),
What if Russia tell China he has discovered some manufacture “defects” in the air-to-ground munitions for Su-40MKK and issued a recall?
How do you define "Russian failure"? NATO is not directly involved, so what is "Failure" in this Ukraine war?
Regime change or worst, breakup of Russian Federation, or losing Central Asia
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's all a theoretically discussion still as we haven't witness an all-out nuclear war yet.
Nobody really knows for sure other than it would be catastrophic on an unfathomable scale.
Extinction of humanity, questionable. Collapse of civilization, very likely.
My take on the least grim outcome: There won't be any real winners, just unluckly survivers in fast declining numbers due to radiation (both short and long term fallout), other sickness, starvation (nuclear winter and nuclear famine ) and lots of other nightmarish hardship for decades and even centuries to come.
To believe in less severe consequences is a fallacy in my opinion. Most likely it will be far worse than this.
Lots of academic papers on nuclear war out there in addition to the various wikipedia articles already mentioned.
Only a few outliers advocate that an all-out nuclear war can be won in any meaningful way.

*Note that I wrote an all-out nuclear war, not a limited nuclear war between two adversaries (which according to most simulations done never stay limited anyways).

Enough off-topic ;)

I don't think it's unfathomable, but sure I agree it would be really bad. Any country that gets nuked by that kind of arsenal in its entirety and in a counter-value strike specifically will not function appropriately for decades at best (and at worst cease to exist, which is likely for the majority of countries).

But no, a nuclear strike on the US or any single country wouldn't collapse all of civilization. This is Hollywood White liberal concern trolling because they don't like nukes. But they also don't like genetic differences or nuclear energy or gender differences so they pollute those fields with garbage you might accidentally regurgitate too.

Lots of academic papers on nuclear war out there in addition to the various wikipedia articles already mentioned.

Yea and I linked you to criticisms of those papers. They all have one theme in common.

Anyway, I'm done with this convo. You have a right to your opinion and I don't want spend hours trying to convince you of something that doesn't matter anyway.
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyway, I'm done with this convo. You have a right to your opinion and I don't want spend hours trying to convince you of something that doesn't matter ananyway.
Well, you got me to read up on stuff I haven't touched for ages with some interesting new takes in the recent decade.
So thanks for the convo.
 
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kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
China in 1979 was in no condition to remodel anyone. China just came out of Cultural Revolution which completely destroyed the social fabric and cohesion

Occupying Vietnam was never China's objective in 1979. Deng's consideration was much more geo-political coming just one month after his meeting with Carter in Washington D.C. Kissinger called this incursion the Third Vietnam War and used this border war to mark the beginning of the end of the USSR in his "On China" book. Deng called the Soviet bluff albeit at substantial costs.
 

Insignius

Junior Member
China in 1979 was in no condition to remodel anyone. China just came out of Cultural Revolution which completely destroyed the social fabric and cohesion

Yet China fought Vietnam for over 10 years after '79. Long wars are a thing and even completely obliterated countries like Syria can sustain them. Keep in mind that China also had US support back in the day.

And also, the Cultural Revolution has no bearing upon China's ability to fight long attritional wars. If so, how do you call the sectarian free-for-all-violence that rocked the middle east to this day? Is that any better than the Cultural Revolution? Getting your head chopped off for saying the wrong things about Muhamad's 90th disciple's pubes is somehow better than struggle sessions? Keep it real, man. In global politics, nobody cares about your people's fragile fee-feels. And Deng Xiaoping's decision to invade Vietnam has shown this - since by modern twitter and weibo emo standards, he should have been sitting in his corner to cry about Red Guards crippling his son instead of thinking about how to defend China's geopolitical interests.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Guys, what are your thoughts on the ongoing negotiation between Ukraine and Russia?
Peace talks are just for a show. Nothing would come out of it until battlefield victories are clear.
It seems most of you are saying "Russia is winning / Russia must win" - which implies the ongoing peace negotiation is not serious for some reason.

As Russian advances has mostly stalled for the time being, it will likely take some time before significant military advantage is achieved if diplomacy fails.
It isn't about Russia is winning or Russia must win. Zelenskyy can't give in to Russian demands at the moment especially Ukrainian military has demonstrated its determination to fight. Russia can't accept a pull back right now until its political and military objectives are achieved. Both sides have dug in for the war.

For Ukrainians, even though NATO isn't coming, many believe they can wear out the Russians. Russians believe the momentum is changing. If they could take Mariupol, the entire east front would fall within a few weeks. NATO thinks Russia can't sustain the war for more than a few weeks to a few months and hope a revolution would topple Putin and sanctions would do the works for them by hitting Russian pockets and standard of livings.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Yet China fought Vietnam for over 10 years after '79. Long wars are a thing and even completely obliterated countries like Syria can sustain them. Keep in mind that China also had US support back in the day.

And also, the Cultural Revolution has no bearing upon China's ability to fight long attritional wars. If so, how do you call the sectarian free-for-all-violence that rocked the middle east to this day? Is that any better than the Cultural Revolution? Getting your head chopped off for saying the wrong things about Muhamad's 90th disciple's pubes is somehow better than struggle sessions? Keep it real, man. In global politics, nobody cares about your people's fragile fee-feels. And Deng Xiaoping's decision to invade Vietnam has shown this - since by modern twitter and weibo emo standards, he should have been sitting in his corner to cry about Red Guards crippling his son instead of thinking about how to defend China's geopolitical interests.
Occupation of Vietnam will drain precious funds and attentions from more pressing things like developing the economy
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
It's all a theoretically discussion still as we haven't witness an all-out nuclear war yet.
Nobody really knows for sure other than it would be catastrophic on an unfathomable scale.
Extinction of humanity, questionable. Collapse of civilization, very likely.
My take on the least grim outcome: There won't be any real winners, just unluckly survivers in fast declining numbers due to radiation (both short and long term fallout), other sickness, starvation (nuclear winter and nuclear famine ) and lots of other nightmarish hardship for decades and even centuries to come.
To believe in less severe consequences is a fallacy in my opinion. Most likely it will be far worse than this.
Lots of academic papers on nuclear war out there in addition to the various wikipedia articles already mentioned.
Only a few outliers advocate that an all-out nuclear war can be won in any meaningful way.

*Note that I wrote an all-out nuclear war, not a limited nuclear war between two adversaries (which according to most simulations done never stay limited anyways).

Enough off-topic ;)
That's a very western centric view. Most of the worlds population in Asia, Africa, South America would be unaffected.
Why would civilisation collapse there, let alone humanity becoming extinct? You know all that stuff about nuclear winter is discredited?

Scaled for the current world population it'll be the equivalent of the damage and loss of life that happened in WW2, but in an instant rather than over a few years.

Going back on topic, we're finally seeing the use of suicide drones.
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I don't know why it took Russia so long to start using these.
 
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