I would simply say try not to get caught up in the overblown rhetoric and wishful thinking of the US. Putin has shown that just by moving his forces around and putting them through exercises, that he can bring the Ukraine (and to a degree NATO) to its knees. This of course assumes that these troop numbers are even real and not simply a self defeating imaginary invention of the West.
The rhetoric coming from Washington and delegates at Munich has more than an air of desperation about them.
Can it be that all the overblown rhetoric of recent weeks was supposed to be matched by actions on the ground that never happened? Have planned provocations been blocked by Russian Intelligence, making the West look very foolish?
Putin has many cards and has proved a very canny player. It would take more than one simple provocation to force him to take obvious and overt action and it is likely that the attempt to do so would mean a provocation on a scale which could not be hidden or misrepresented, thus providing a legitimate Casus Belli.
Never mind what Washington says Putin is going to do, only Putin knows how he will react and he is sharper than any of them.
Another point perhaps worth noting is the meeting between Putin and Xi at Beijing, presumably during which Putin in all likelihood would've briefed Xi on his intentions as well as Russia's actual game plan.
So any statement China makes and any action she takes would most certainly have been formulated well in advance and in concert with the Russian side.
Like you said, Putin is a sharp fellow. Whatever the rhetoric or response from the West may be, I reckon how China would respond may actually give us a clearer indication of where Putin's head is at. The US for their part is certainly aware of that fact, I'm sure, which is why they've been bandying sanctioning China for a Russian invasion, and breaking ties and all that, just to see which way China twitches.
