Ukrainian War Developments

Wrong thread.

After reading this, I don't think Ukraine is as innocent as it wants to appear in the escalation of violent.

He called for clear road maps for Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the European Union, and criticized allies for being unwilling to sanction Russia now or even name sanctions measures in advance to better deter Putin, while loudly predicting an imminent Russian invasion.

Tensions are escalating

Tensions are escalating even on live tv

OSCE indicates they saw 2000 cease fire violations in the last 24 hours:

...I...cannot imagine how this could possibly go wrong.

For those of you who are interested in the order of battle and the theater of operations - I prepared two maps and a list of units for Ukrainian Armed Forces. The links to imgur have large resolution images 3460x2460 pixels. Use them if the maps posted below are illegible:

air defense forces:
land forces:

The first map shows the dislocation of air and air defense units and nominal maximum ranges of surface-to-air missiles. The second map shows the dislocation of land units - ground forces, air assault forces, naval infantry and national guard - as well as hypothetical units of Russian ground forces, airborne forces and units of Russia allies (Donetsk, Luhansk, Transnistria). Note that they are not the units which are reported but units which I chose to serve as an equivalent to compare combat potential of both sides. These units are forces from the western and southern military districts that are not bound to location due to geography like units i Kaliningrad, St.Petersburg or Caucasus.

Key for both maps:

The ranges of SAMs are given at maximum. S-400 displays four maximum ranges depending on the missiles available. S-300 and Buk only display single missile. Aircraft have notional display of ranges for R-27ER missiles with three areas - no escape zone, effective range and theoretical maximum range. The different ranges are denoted by different shading.

The units on the land forces map use dual color coding - see image below for more information.



Location of air and air defense units:



List of units with reported equipment. Air Force main command operates strike (Av) units while regional Air Commands operate fighter (Av) and missile (AA) units for air defense of assigned area. Note that all Ukrainian units are under nominal strength due to aicraft shortages.

Air Force Command
7th Av, Starokostiantyniv Air Base (Su-24M, Su-24MR, L-39C)
299th Av, Kulbakino Air Base, Mikolayev (Su-25, Su-25UB, L-39C)
383rd Av, Khmelnitsky (Bayraktar TB2)

Air Command West
114th Av, Ivano-Frankivsk Air Base (MiG-29)
540th AA, Kamianka-Buzka (S-300PS)
11th AA, Shepetivka (Buk-M1)
223rd AA, Stryi (Buk-M1)

Air Command Central
39th Av, Ozerne Air Base (Su-27, L-39C)
40th Av, Vasylkiv Air Base (MiG-29, L-39C)
831st Av, Myrhorod Air Base (Su-27, L-39C)
96th AA, Danylivka (S-300PS)
156th AA, Zolotonosha (Buk-M1)

Air Command South
204th Av, Kulbakino Air Base (MiG-29, L-39M1)
160th AA, Odessa (S-300PM)
208th AA, Kherson (S-300PS)
201st AA, Pervomaisk (S-300PS)

Air Command East
138th AA, Dnipro (S-300PS)
301st AA, Nikopol (S-300PS)


Location of ground units:



On the map I included only brigades and regiments. Units on the map should be read left-to-right.Horizontal arrangement is for convenience. Vertical columns denote Russian divisions of 3-4 regiments

Russian brigade/regiment has four uniform battalions - 3 tank and 1 motor rifle or 1 tank and 3 motor rifle. Ukrainian brigade has also 3+1 structure but the battalions are not uniform:

tank battalion - 3 tank companies + 1 mechanized company - 40 mbt, 16 ifv
mech battalion - 1 tank company + 3 mechanized companies - 13 mbt, 41 ifv/apc, 6 120mm, 9 MANPADS,
motorized battalion - 3 motorized infantry companies
artillery battalion - 2x18 howitzers, 18 rocket artillery, 12 anti-tank guns,
anti-aircraft battalion - 4 9K33 Osa-AKM, 12 Tunguska/Shilka , 9 Striela-10M3, 27 Igla MANPADS

Additionally every Ukrainian brigade and artillery brigade has a motor infantry battalion (rarely two) of Territorial Defense Force for rear protection. Every regional command has a reconnaissance battalion and an air defense regiment with 2K12 Kub, 9K33 Osa and ZU-23-2. Every artillery brigade has four separate artillery divisions (18 howizters) and one anti-tank division (12 guns).

tank brigade:
3x tank bat, 1x mech bat, 1x art gr (2S3 152mm, 2S1 122mm, BM-21)

mechanized brigade:
3x mech bat, 1x tank bat,1x mot inf bat (1), 1x art gr (2S3, 2S1, BM-21, MT-12)

motorized infantry brigade:
3x mot inf bat, 1x art gr (D-20, MT-12)

air assault brigade:
3x inf bat (BTR), 1x tank coy (T-80), 1x art gr (2S9, D-30, BM-21)

Ground Forces

19th Missile, Khmelnytskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (4xTochka-U)
107th Rocket Artillery, Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast (4xBM-30/9K58)
15th Rocket Artillery, Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, (4xBM-30/9K58)
27th Rocket Artillery, Sumy, Sumy Oblast (4xBM-27/9K57)
43rd Artillery, Pyriatyn, Kyiv Oblast (4x2S7)

Operational Command West
14th Mechanized, Volodymyr-Volynsky, Volyn Oblast
24th Mech., Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast
10th Mountain Assault, Kolomyia, Ivano Frankivsk Oblast
128th Mountain Assault, Mukachevo, Zakarpattia Oblast
44th Artillery, Ternopil, Ternopil Oblast (1x 2A65, 2x 2A36, 1x 2S7, 1x MT-12)

Operational Command North
1st Tank, Honcharivske, Chernihiv Oblast
30th Mech., Novohrad-Volynskyi, Zhytomyr Oblast
72nd Mech., Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
61st Jager Inf., Chernihiv, Chernihiv Oblast
58th Mot. Inf., Konotop, Sumy Oblast
12th Separate Tank Battalion, Honcharivske, Chernihiv Oblast
26th Artillery Brigade, Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast (2x 2S19, 1x 2S5, 1x MT-12)

Operational Command South
28th Mech., Chornomorske, Odessa Oblast
56th Mot. Inf., Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (to Naval Infantry)
57th Mot. Inf. Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast
59th Mot. Inf., Haisyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
40th Artillery, Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast (2x 2A65, 2x 2A36 1x MT-12)

Operational Command East
17th Tank, Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade, Kryvyi Rih
53rd Mech., Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast
54th Mech., Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast
92nd Mech., Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast
93rd Mech., Cherkaske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
55th Artillery, Zaporizhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (2x 2A65, 2x 2A36 1x MT-12)

Air Assault Forces

25th Airborne, Hvardiiske
45th Air Assault, Bolhrad
46th Air Assault, Poltava
79th Air Assault, Mykolaiv
80th Air Assault, Lviv
81st Airmobile, Druzhkivka
95th Air Assault, Zhytomyr
148th Self-propelled Howitzer Battalion, Zhytomyr
23rd Tank Battalion, Velykyi Kobylyn

Naval Infantry

36th Naval Inf., Mykolaiv
35th Naval Inf., Dachne
37th Naval Inf., under formation in 2019 (not included)
40th Naval Inf., under formation in 2019 (not included)
32nd Rocket Artillery, Altestove (1x BM-27, 2x BM-21)
406th Field and Coastal Defense Artillery (4x howitzer, 1x MT-12)

Reserves:

Ground Forces Reserve Corps - 3 tank brigades, 5 mechanized brigades, 1 artillery brigade
Territorial Defense - every oblast has a territorial defense brigade assigned

Those units need to be mobilized before they can become operational. The condition of ground forces reserve corps is unknown and should not be considered apart from a secnario involving protracted and extensive fighting.

National Guard of Ukraine

4th Operational Brigade, Hostomel (3x inf bat, 1x tank bat, 1x art bat)

Western Operational-Territorial Command
2nd Independent Bde, Lviv
8th Operational Rgt, Kalynivka
40th Rgt, Vinnytsia
45th Operational Rgt, Lviv
50th Rgt, Ivano-Frankivsk
13th Independent Bat., Khmelnitsky
32nd Separate Bat., Lutsk

Northern Operational-Territorial Command
1st Operational Bde, Vyshhorod (3x inf bat, 1x tank bat, 1x art bat)
25th Public Security Protection Bde, Kyiv
25th Separate Bat., Cherkassy
75th Separate Bat., Zhytomyr

Central Operational-Territorial Command
21st Public Order Protection Bde, Kryvyi Rih
16th Public Order Protection Rgt, Dnipro
12th Separate Bat, Poltava
26th Independent Bat, Kremenchug

Eastern Operational-Territorial Command
3rd Operational Bde, Kharkiv (3x inf bat, 1x tank bat, 1x art bat)
5th Independent Bde, Kharkiv
15th Independent Rgt, Sloviansk
18th Operational Rgt. Mariupol (Donbas, Azov)
11th Independent Bat., Sumy

Southern Operational-Territorial Command
23rd Public Order Protection Bde, Zaporizhzhia
9th Operational Rgt, Zaporizhzhia
19th Public Order Protection Rgt, Mykolaiv
49th Public Order Protection Rgt, Odesa
16th Independent Bat., Kherson

National Guard of Ukraine fulfills a separate role and will only be used in frontline duty in special circumstances. Operational brigades with tanks and artillery are the legacy of Arsen Avakov's control of the ministry and were as much "anti-coup" forces as they were second-line units against aerial assault.

In the list above I did not include Special Protection Units which are assigned to strategic objects - nuclear powerplants and other strategic facilities as these units will never leave their designated protection areas.

Russian tactical aviation and air defense units:


The list of units from Western and Southern military districts only, as they are good indication of the strength of forces that are available for operation while the rest secures their respective areas of responsibility:



This should give you a better understanding of the tactical constraints and combat potential in a hypothetical full-scale conflict.

I hope this is informative and useful.

t2contra said:

Tensions are escalating even on live tv

Click to expand...

Nestor should have had that fight, he missed the punch but Yury slipped and Nes had him in a headlock. He effed it up though and Yury managed to reverse into his own headlock. LOL at the other guests, the most they did was tap them on the shoulder. Were they even trying to break up the fight?

UK is still the puppet master behind the US. Americans are allowed to keep believing their war of independence freed them of those old chains but with a couple of turns of the pen throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, USA is now the well fed henchmen of the same old cabal. It's also the one to sacrifice its young and take the beating for the cabal. Well you can sell it to the dimwits with pride, glory, freedom and whatever catchphrase that's in vogue with the dimwits.

Big picture civilisational conflict, European empires were fighting each other, Britain won and held onto it all. The bit about world domination may have started during the initial colonial era but power have become "soft" now and most of it was offshored to the USA. Still NED reigns to the point even China has trouble clamping down on how it can militarize the bottom of society and these are present in literally every place. I mean we didn't think Hong Kong could be one of those places but behold.

Britain sort of won the Great Game at least the initial phase, it's always been after Russia. Now Afghanistan has been shelved and the tide may have turned there. It's always been about world domination through controlling pivot points of the world island. Has been since before Mackinder and still is to this day albeit unspoken. Whether the desire is to rule the world from London or Tel Aviv/Jerusalem we don't know but Washington DC is the red herring of red herrings. This doesn't mean USA isn't still the primary target in any nuclear war though. What point is there to ruling a devastated and almost completely uninhabitable and unproductive world. The purpose of slaves isn't to kill them all off.

Europe is hinting at doing something something something to Nord Stream 2. hmmmmmm you tell me if that's a bluff.

I'm not sure how to make of Russian leadership and their place in this order of civilisational struggles. It does seem like there is now some potential for Russia (if genuine) to have woken up a bit more than usual and may hopefully get its act together. Go for the long term gains. Organise, reorganise and stop bleeding Russia dry through corruption. We don't really know what sort of man Putin really is and what he's really all about. China may not like a powerful Russia but they sure as hell prefer that to an Anglo controlled Russia, even one kept weak by the Anglo rulers. Europe fears a powerful Russia far more than China. I mean if history is anything to go by, all China needs to do is keep itself even half competent and China would only really benefit from a Russia with its act together. Lots more cooperation, learning, trade etc. While tensions between a forever paranoid Europe and a strong Russia plays out exactly how everyone suspects it to.

Considering that and the fact that despite all this, France and Germany are behaving rather surprisingly. Is it all hinting at how much further towards decline the Anglo empire truly is? Germany and France were both defeated and then neutered by the British empire. Now they're loosening their leashes bit by bit.