Ukrainian War Developments

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Abominable

Major
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OppositeDay said:
If Russia invades Ukraine under the pretense of protecting ethnic Russians then China should vote in UNSC to condemn the invasion. To do otherwise will certainly alarm SEA countries with large Chinese diaspora.

Of course, China should also veto any resolution seeking to sanction Russia.
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Maybe verbally condemn it but I would abstain on any vote. When the Anglos leave the regions they illegally occupy then we can talk about Ukraine.
 
PhSt

PhSt

Junior Member
Registered Member
OppositeDay said:
If Russia invades Ukraine under the pretense of protecting ethnic Russians then China should vote in UNSC to condemn the invasion. To do otherwise will certainly alarm SEA countries with large Chinese diaspora.
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SEA countries are already "alarmed" by the overhyped Chinese threat, thanks to Propaganda efforts by America and its vassal countries. Why are you advocating for China to Backstab its ally? Even if China votes to condemn Russia's liberation of Ukraine, America will just find another reason to promote hatred of China among its neighbors. The enemy that wants to break apart China is America and its NATO lackeys, not Russia.
 
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anzha

Senior Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
Everyone seems to have forgotten that Biden publically said that he has reliable intelligence that Russia is going to invade Ukraine on wednesday.
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May I suggest it is an interesting coincidence that the metadata from the 'president' of the LNR announcing the evacuation was from...wednesday.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
OppositeDay said:
If Russia invades Ukraine under the pretense of protecting ethnic Russians then China should vote in UNSC to condemn the invasion. To do otherwise will certainly alarm SEA countries with large Chinese diaspora.

Of course, China should also veto any resolution seeking to sanction Russia.
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No China should follow Russian example and do the same. The SEA is already anti China anyway so why bother Do the right thing that what Russia does I applaud them Russia has the gut and the spine to do the right thing unlike you know who!
 
O

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
PhSt said:
SEA countries are already "alarmed" by the overhyped Chinese threat, thanks to Propaganda efforts by America and its vassal countries. Why are you advocating for China to Backstab its ally? Even if China votes to condemn Russia's liberation of Ukraine, America will just find another reason to promote hatred of China among its neighbors. The enemy that wants to break apart China is America and its NATO lackeys, not Russia.
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How is a Russian invasion of Ukraine not backstabbing China? Chinese foreign ministry has been downplaying the possibility of a Russian invasion, Chinese media has been going with the Russian line and mocking US/UK claims of imminent Russian invasion. China supported Russian position on NATO expansion even though it certainly won't support any invasion of Ukraine. China has put a lots of its credibility on the line in supporting Russia, and China will look like a complete fool if Russia actually invades.

China will oppose any UNSC sanction on Russia, and that's the extend China owes to Russia if Russia invades.
 
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Suetham said:
What can the West do?

Directly attacking Chinese foreign trade with import tariffs, as Trump did, or retaliating specifically against a company or some big business, as Canada did.

This will somehow reduce China's role in foreign trade by declining exports and even imports, but it will also make the US bleed because dollar demand will fall. The US depends on the dollar, if in any scenario China abruptly reduces foreign trade, the dollar collapses.

An example of this:

When there was a crash in China's stock market in 2015, when the economic and world turmoil effectively began.

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The above article is very superficial, but it contains some useful information about the economic effect that China has on the world.

In this 2015 global situation, the dollar has strengthened, as investors seek safer havens and the dollar is seen as the safest asset.

A strong currency sounds like a good thing. But it raises the prices of goods that US exporters sell abroad, hurting their sales and profits.

Even before the dollar's jump, US companies have lately been having trouble generating profit growth thanks to the already strong dollar. As the dollar generally rose, profit growth for the S&P 500 has slowed from a pace of about 10% last year to less than 1% this year.

If China's market continued to plummet, expect more investors – including the Chinese themselves – to seek refuge in US-denominated assets such as Treasuries, equities and cash only.

And if that's the case, it would be much harder for US companies to increase their profits, because the dollar would strengthen even further, hurting US exports.

And ultimately, that's a problem for US equities, because profits will be dwindling for listed companies. As the US depends on a stable scenario in the stock market, because Americans have become highly dependent on the financial results of the stock exchange, the strengthening of the dollar resulted in a lower profit for companies, the share is the price that is priced aiming at the Future scenario, if profits decrease, the company's stock will fall.

This occurred in early 2016, still under the influence of the Chinese stock market turmoil, when I was still following the global financial scenario on a daily basis. I remember pretty much every company was in the red, stocks went down in pretty much every company listed, including the planet's own billionaires, the Bloomberg index of billionaires when I opened it was all in the red.

Now, you can imagine when China's weight was still smaller in 2015 compared to today. And the situation would be inversely proportional, the dollar would not strengthen, it would plummet, because its demand would be reduced by the ban on trade with China.

Fortunately for China, the West will have to do a lot of contortionism to try to find some solution to generally sanction the Chinese economy.

In my opinion there is no siege in China. The situation is just the opposite, the Russians are fully confident that China will hold on to its territorial oceanic rearguard while keeping most of its military assets in the western sector.

This implies the same thing for China, the Russians will hold the position of the Chinese mainland rear and help the Chinese to focus on the current most unstable scenario: the Western Pacific.

In short: While the Chinese maintain a relevant position on the ocean front of the Western Pacific, offering resistance to US and allied expansionism, the Russians maintain a secure position in the Chinese mainland rear.

This geostrategic positioning brought back the rimland(China) and the heartland(Russia) theories under new actors. Before the threat was red (USSR), now the threat is orange (China + Russia).

The Chinese ocean front and Russian transcontinental territory is the biggest challenge for the US since World War II.

Heartland author Halford John Mackinder initially claimed that whoever controlled the heartland territory would control the world, the USSR almost managed to control the entire heartland territory, but its economic inefficiency simply rendered the whole concept invalid, this inefficiency no longer exists, even more considering the Chinese efficiency.

The increasing integration between China - Central Asian countries and Russia simply has the potential to create a new economic and geopolitical order. China has the financial resources, economic efficiency, industrial productivity and skilled labor, the others, to a lesser extent, contribute with labor, but the economic vocation is the extraction of raw materials, eventually such countries will become developed, as was the case with Australia, a major exporter of raw materials and a major importer of manufactured products.
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The world island has four other regions,

1. Africa, The Chinese are doing pretty well there. Despite the old colonial powers like France having their sphere of influence, the Chinese have also carved out many countries by offering infrastructure, arms and in the future, model for governance to trade for their natural resources. Some of the manufacturing have also moved there.

2. The greater Middle East. Here, the Chinese have uniquely been friends with all major powers. Certainly, they are tight with Iran, but also on very good terms with Saudi Arabia, Israel and at least friendly terms with Turkey. They are unique among the big powers to have such broad reach in this region.

3. Europe. This is the big prize with the largest economy. Even though there is a big cultural affinity with the U.S. Europe have also formed many commercial relationships with China. While a bulwark against Russia, many former Eastern European nations including Ukraine and Poland have very good relationship with China. Even among the Western Europeans, while the U.S. are pushing for separation from China, have formed many commercial relationship with China. With a very large economy, especially now part of RCEP, no country, even in Western Europe, can ignore the economic draw of China.

4. South Asia. China is friendly with all South Asian countries except India. Even there, nominally part of the Quad, India still does a lot of trade with China.

This is when the Chinese economy is only 80% of the U.S. In two decades, when the Chinese economy is significantly larger then that of the U.S. with much more advanced technology and military, the landscape will tilt much more to the Chinese side. Even the countries that tend to be against China will fear to act in case they incur the ire from the 900 lb guerrilla in the room.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
OppositeDay said:
How is a Russian invasion of Ukraine not backstabbing China? Chinese foreign ministry has been downplaying the possibility of a Russian invasion, Chinese media has been going with the Russian line and mocking US/UK claims of imminent Russian invasion. China supported Russian position on NATO expansion even though it certainly won't support any invasion of Ukraine. China has put a lots of its credibility on the line in supporting Russia, and China will look like a complete fool if Russia actually invades.

China will oppose any UNSC sanction on Russia, and that's the extend China owes to Russia if Russia invades.
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Russia is the only nation that support China in WW II when everybody abandoned China No China should stick it with Russia
 
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