I have listened to a number of talks made by Professor John Mearsheimer on Russia-Ukraine issue. I get the genesis of this but the question I raised was what changed from Trumps presidency to Biden in terms of American approach vis-à-vis Ukraine.
It's clear to me that this while Ukraine shit was pushed and prodded by the Biden administration from the word go in order to weaken Russia economically by crippling it's energy sector business with Europe. Thereby permanently crippling or chipping it away from Europe which would now then become more economic subservient to the U.S. LNG and also major arms buyer for U.S. military industries. Most importantly, with Russia severely crippled the whole eyes and attention of Sauron will then be fixed to China, and this time with a new friends along with her a.k.a. EU. India is too weak economically to dent against China but with Europe and hopefully dislodging ASEAN solidarity through classic divide and conquer strategy it'll whittle away China's premiere advantages in trade and economy. Africa is still too poor to matter in this contest to help or assist China. Which is also why America and Europe are trying to impede Chinese advances in Africa because in my opinion the west don't want the continent to become economically strong.
The reason for this if Africa becomes a strong economic bloc, it'll spell trouble for the economic interests of Europe since a lot of European countries have established businesses in the continent from the the time of colonial era. If Africa becomes another powerful economic competitor that means it'll also become more assertive in the global stage, asserting itself with confidence in matters that Africans hold dear where it can collide with western interest. Africa will become militarily strong able to compete and beat Europe down the road since Africa has the fastest growing population while Europe and the west is on a terminal decline. And in war, the individual soldier is still will be the deciding factor.
I will give my opinion on the matter.
Undoubtedly, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would unleash what the US effectively wants: to destroy the Russian economy.
This raises several domino effects that many people simply ignore.
For example, let's say the Russians invade Ukraine and the EU and US sanction the Russian economy like never before.
This is the point of no return. The Russians will not accept being attacked without retaliation, the Russians have always reacted.
What can Russians do?
Simply by cutting off all gas exports to Europe.
40% of Europe depends on gas from Russia. Some EU countries have more than 60% of their national energy composition based on Russian gas.
The price of electricity will skyrocket in Europe and part of Europe will be without power, which will cause temporary blackouts, business closures, families will be without electricity, among other generalized consequences.
What does this imply?
The sector that most depends on gas energy is industry.
Highly industrialized countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain among others, basically those in Western Europe will simply see their industries dwindle.
Germany, which is highly dependent on exports and foreign trade, will see its industry lose global competitiveness, as production costs have risen sharply due to the closure of Russian gas pipelines. In addition to the inflationary effects on the cost of residential energy that can simply bring down elected governments. And the USA, even being one of the biggest LNG exporters, will not be able to replace what the Russians export to Europe, not even 5% of what the Russians export to Europe, even considering the global LNG fleet that does not exceed 700 ships varying between transport capacity from 70 thousand cubic meters to 266 thousand cubic meters, compared to a gas pipeline transporting billions of cubic meters per year.
And for the US?
The EU is the US's biggest trading partner. Exports to the EU make up 18.7% and imports make up 18.9% of the total balance of trade, this means that the EU alone has a total percentage of 37.6% of US foreign trade.
In addition to importing EU products being much more expensive than before the Russian sanctions, US imports themselves will decline, because the EU will not have enough money to import US products, the trade relationship is a two-way street, is exported to import.
That is, the average American citizen will have the increase in products because the US government is sanctioning the Russians.
Clearly, Americans can withstand these economic effects, but the EU cannot, especially considering the world we are living in with tremendous political instability, high energy prices that can even prevent sanctions, and high commodity inflation in general.
Putin clearly has a weapon in his hand, the gas. Some gas pipelines that pass through Ukraine are not being used, this is because the Russians are preferring to supply Europe with gas pipelines that circle the territory of Ukraine, this effectively harmed part of the government revenue of the Ukrainian government that depends on this passage of gas to Europe. Putin has this weapon and he uses it and should use it if he is eventually forced to adopt such a stance.
China:
I don't know if most people noticed, but a lot of people do.
It was no accident that the Russians first transferred large numbers of Russian troops from the central and eastern districts to the western and southern side. Previously, the amount of this transfer was limited, but since last year the contingent has increased further to the western side of Russia, leaving a gap in the military capabilities of the central and eastern districts, this is the second year that such a shift has taken place in Russia. large quantities, this year broke the record for units transferred.
For me this has a very strong message for China:
The message is - We fully trust you (Chinese) and now I'm sure I can focus on Eastern Europe.
This has a very specific sequential factor for this unexpected action:
The expulsion of the West from Central Asia.
Since the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan as well as the normalization of the situation in Kazakhstan, the Russians have become more confident to focus on the most unstable scenario for Russia: Ukraine.
Look at the map of Central Asia:
Since the expulsion of NATO from Afghanistan, the only territory that still poses to a minimal degree any existential danger is Turkmenistan.
The increasing integration of China and Russia leaves no doubt that China will not let the Russians bleed in isolation.
What can China do?
In plain terms, there is no way the West can effectively blockade the way they can with the Russians. The demand for the dollar depends on the foreign trade of China which is the largest trading nation in the world and this keeps the dollar relevant in the international trade scenario, if the Chinese are banned from trading in dollars, the dollar collapses and the American economy goes into space , as well as its military power that basically depends on public deficits that are only sustained because of the world dollar standard.
