Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have listened to a number of talks made by Professor John Mearsheimer on Russia-Ukraine issue. I get the genesis of this but the question I raised was what changed from Trumps presidency to Biden in terms of American approach vis-à-vis Ukraine.

It's clear to me that this while Ukraine shit was pushed and prodded by the Biden administration from the word go in order to weaken Russia economically by crippling it's energy sector business with Europe. Thereby permanently crippling or chipping it away from Europe which would now then become more economic subservient to the U.S. LNG and also major arms buyer for U.S. military industries. Most importantly, with Russia severely crippled the whole eyes and attention of Sauron will then be fixed to China, and this time with a new friends along with her a.k.a. EU. India is too weak economically to dent against China but with Europe and hopefully dislodging ASEAN solidarity through classic divide and conquer strategy it'll whittle away China's premiere advantages in trade and economy. Africa is still too poor to matter in this contest to help or assist China. Which is also why America and Europe are trying to impede Chinese advances in Africa because in my opinion the west don't want the continent to become economically strong.

The reason for this if Africa becomes a strong economic bloc, it'll spell trouble for the economic interests of Europe since a lot of European countries have established businesses in the continent from the the time of colonial era. If Africa becomes another powerful economic competitor that means it'll also become more assertive in the global stage, asserting itself with confidence in matters that Africans hold dear where it can collide with western interest. Africa will become militarily strong able to compete and beat Europe down the road since Africa has the fastest growing population while Europe and the west is on a terminal decline. And in war, the individual soldier is still will be the deciding factor.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Economically, the Russians have already hit rock bottom and is on the mend. However weak its economic power, Russia is a significant military power and will be for decades to come.

Whatever sanctions the U.S. can place on Russia, it would be impossible to topple the current Russian government as long as both Putin is in charge and China is there to bolster their economy. Russia will be able to source most daily merchandise that they need from China. They will still obtain enough revenue from selling weapons/natural resources to China. The idea of knocking out Russia when Putin and China are there is just a fantasy.

Ukraine, like Taiwan, had already seen its opinion shifted to the West, but as war clouds loomed, but no fighting, Ukraine will be facing economic disaster. No foreign capital will invest in Ukraine. All the young people are leaving for other lands, In a couple of decades, Ukraine will be shell of its former selves. However, it will not be able to determine its own fate, just as Taiwan will not be able to determine its own fate. It is decided by Russia and the U.S., to a much less extend, Europe and China, whatever the opinions of its population. Over time, if the economy of Ukraine does not get better, we may actually see the opinion of its population shift away from the U.S.

If Putin can hold out for a decade, the power shift to China plus the internal strife inside the U.S. will mean that the U.S. will increasingly be less likely to pick fights in that region.

I agree that there is benefit for the U.S. if a fight were to occur between Russia and Ukraine, but it is not about toppling Russia. The U.S. has found it increasingly difficult to challenge China and needs the Western Europeans to fall in line. A fight between Ukraine and Russia is just the thing to enforce such loyalties. However, we are powerless to provide any economic incentive to the Western Europeans, so we can only use the stick. In the longer run, this is unsustainable. After the pain of economic losses, Europe will eventually have to follow its own interests and away from the U.S. because we can only force Europe to take economic pain to stay with us on trumped up security issues. Putin is also playing well with his hand by scaring the heck out of the Ukrainian government so his does not have to actually go to war.

Actually, it seems Biden does not really want to go to war. If he did, he would sanction the heck out of the Russians. Once the sanctions are applied, there will be no more downside to the Russian invasion and the Russians might invade. Instead, he threaten to use the sanctions.
I hope your analysis will be proven to be the correct one.
 

PhSt

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

621021ed2030275cca507d48.jpg
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Study the Chinese diplomatic wordings and their true meanings. Then make your own judgement if I am over interpreting.

亲切友好的交谈——字面意思;
坦率交谈——分歧很大,无法沟通;
交换了意见——会谈各说各的,没有达成协议;
充分交换了意见——双方无法达成协议,吵得厉害;
增进了双方的了解——双方分歧很大;
会谈是有益的——双方目标暂时相距甚远,能坐下来谈就很好;
我们持保留态度——我们拒绝同意;
尊重——不完全同意; 赞赏——不尽同意; 遗憾——不满;
不愉快——激烈的冲突; 表示极大的愤慨——现在我拿你没办法;
严重关切——可能要干预; 不能置之不理——即将干涉;
保留做出进一步反应的权利——我们将报复;
我们将重新考虑这一问题的立场——我们已经改变了原来的(友好)政策;
拭目以待——最后警告;
请于*月*日前予以答复——*月*日后我们两国可能处于非和平状态;
由此引起的后果将由*负责——可能的话我国将诉诸武力(这也可能是虚张声势的俗语);
这是我们万万不能容忍的——战争在即;
这是不友好的行动——这是敌视我们的行动;可能引起战争的行动;
是可忍孰不可忍——不打算忍了,要动手了。
悬崖勒马——想被XX么?
勿谓言之不预也——准备棺材吧。

The above list is certainly unheard by you since you probably has never lived in China (mainland). But that is how people in China interpret Chinese diplomatic wordings.
This is not the full speech by Ambassador Zhang, this is totally irrelevant to the original conversation. We are not even discussing the same full speech you posted.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In most cases, it is the unspoken words what is truly said. When I say "we exchanged opinions frankly" I mean "we disagree a lot". When I say "Europe can make independent decisions" I am actually saying "Europe is not making independent decisions."
This is not the full speech by Ambassador Zhang. So it is totally irrelevant.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Did I ever suggested "China support Russia annexing any part of Ukraine"? China said "I support Russia" without stating the condition. Plain and simple. It is you keep on inserting the word "annex" into the equation.
Yes, this is your personal interpretation. China's official statement is more neutral than you are portraying. You are selectively choosing parts but ignoring others parts of the text that calls for all sides to reach a political settlement and not escalate into armed conflict.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Once again you are manipulating and lying.
You aren't even quoting from the original speech from Ambassador Zhang, you are selectively choosing parts that fit your narrative.
Now China has signed a new 10(?) years gas contract together with previous contract that secured Russian income in the coming decade. If Russia "annexed" any part of Donbass tomorrow, are you going to say that China WILL withdraw that support by cancelling the contracts? If China does nothing, does that mean China support Russia "annexing"?

I'd like to see how you can manoeuvre yourself out of these questions.
Yea, you can interpret all you want, but China does not openly support Russian annexation of any Ukrainian territory, because China adheres to "Non-interference in internal affairs" and it isn't going to drop this principle formally just to support Russian imperialism. You go through all these mental gymnastics and exercises to say "China supports Russian imperialism", but in all the official statements so far, China is far more neutral than that and calling on all sides to reach a peaceful settlement.

Here is the part of the speech you conveniently left out:
主席先生:

我感谢你主持这次会议。感谢迪卡洛副秘书长(DiCarlo)、欧安组织轮值主席特别代表基努恩大使(Kinnunen)、欧安组织特别监察团首席监察员切维克大使(Çevik)的通报。我也认真听取了民间社会代表蒙蒂安(Montian)女士的发言。

今年2月12日是新明斯克协议达成7周年,审议新明斯克协议的落实情况是本次安理会会议的主题。新明斯克协议是各方公认的、解决乌克兰问题有约束力的基础性政治文件,经过安理会第2202号决议一致核可,理应得到有关各方的全面和有效执行。遗憾的是,直到目前,协议中的大部分条款未得到真正落实。当前在接触线又发生了新的违反停火事件。中方认为,解决乌克兰问题,还是要回到落实新明斯克协议这一原点上。希望有关各方展现建设性态度,通过对话协商解决新明斯克协议执行中出现的分歧,制定路线图和时间表,推动将协议尽快落到实处,为乌克兰危机的政治解决创造条件。

主席先生,

关于乌克兰东部边境局势,中方认为,当前形势下,有关各方应当保持理性,坚持政治解决的大方向,不做任何刺激局势紧张、炒作渲染危机的事情。各方应当在充分考虑彼此合理安全关切和相互尊重基础上,通过平等协商妥善解决分歧。中方支持一切有利于缓和紧张局势的努力,注意到俄罗斯同法国、德国等欧洲国家近期正在领导人层面开展外交接触。通过谈判达成均衡、有效、可持续的欧洲安全机制,将为欧洲地区实现持久和平稳定奠定稳固的基础。我们相信欧洲国家会作出符合自身利益的战略自主决策。古特雷斯秘书长日前公开呼吁,外交方案是当前唯一的出路,所有问题能够也必须在外交框架内予以解决,中方对此表示赞同。我们支持联合国秘书长为缓解紧张局势开展的斡旋努力。

I thank you for presiding over this meeting. I would like to thank Under-Secretary-General DiCarlo, Ambassador Kinnunen, Special Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, and Ambassador Çevik, Chief Inspector of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, for their briefings. I also listened carefully to Ms. Montian, the representative of civil society.

February 12 this year marks the 7th anniversary of the conclusion of the New Minsk Agreement. Reviewing the implementation of the New Minsk Agreement is the theme of this Security Council meeting. The New Minsk Agreement is recognized by all parties as a binding and basic political document for resolving the Ukraine issue. It was unanimously approved by Security Council Resolution 2202 and should be fully and effectively implemented by all parties concerned. Unfortunately, until now, most of the terms of the agreement have not been implemented. There are now new ceasefire violations at the line of contact. China believes that to solve the Ukrainian issue, it is still necessary to return to the original point of implementing the new Minsk agreement. It is hoped that relevant parties will show a constructive attitude, resolve differences in the implementation of the new Minsk Agreement through dialogue and consultation, formulate a roadmap and timetable, and promote the implementation of the agreement as soon as possible, so as to create conditions for a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

Mr.president,

Regarding the situation on the border in eastern Ukraine, China believes that under the current situation, all parties concerned should remain rational, adhere to the general direction of political settlement, and refrain from doing anything to stimulate tension and hype up the crisis. All parties should properly resolve differences through equal consultation on the basis of fully considering each other's legitimate security concerns and mutual respect. China supports all efforts to ease tensions, noting that Russia and France, Germany and other European countries are conducting diplomatic contacts at the leadership level recently. Negotiating a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism will lay a solid foundation for lasting peace and stability in the European region. We believe that European countries will make strategic and autonomous decisions that are in line with their own interests. Secretary-General Guterres publicly called a few days ago that a diplomatic solution is the only way out, and that all issues can and must be resolved within a diplomatic framework. China agrees with this. We support the good offices efforts of the United Nations Secretary-General to reduce tensions.
.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Last edited:

PhSt

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yea, you can interpret all you want, but China does not openly support Russian annexation of any Ukrainian territory, because China adheres to "Non-interference in internal affairs" and it isn't going to drop this principle formally just to support Russian imperialism.

I agree that there is no need for China to openly support Russia's actions in Eastern Europe. But labeling Russia's actions as "Russian Imperialism" shows your true colors as a Western stooge for parroting the same propaganda narrative pushed by the west. I bet America's malicious and aggressive actions towards China from forming a military alliance to contain China to outright supporting separatists in Hong Kong and Taiwan are all forgotten because the US only got a "small concession" from the Qing Dynasty. lol


Your brazen support of the West's own imperialist actions against Russia is harmful to China's interests.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top