Ukrainian War Developments

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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Key Ukrainian position imo:

"Podolyak said a key part of any deal would be agreement by the west that they would come to Ukraine’s aid in the event of any future conflict with Russia and that there would be no hesitation in imposing a “no-fly zone”."

Early 19th european century style alliance mechanism revived or just NATO light?
If they're delusional enough to stick to this demand then there's not going to be any deal. Ukraine will just keep getting pummeled.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
It's the minsk II threaties more or less... it was proposed well before the war. All that blood for that ? No way Russia will accept that, it's way too late.
"Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian president
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, told the FT that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on 24 February – namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv"


According to the report, that is a major indication of Ukraine's stance on territorial issues. It might indeed be what the Ukrainians are ready to compromise for: the defacto acceptance of the forfeiture of Crimea and areas of the Donbass Region.
Minsk Protocol recognised Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbass, they just had to give them regional autonomy. This is handing them over to Russia.

Zelensky is going to turn into the most hated man in Ukraine if he agrees to this. Even the Minsk agreements were controversial. A significant proportion of the Ukrainian people even want Crimea back.

That's assuming Russia forgets or Ukraine agrees with the other points, demilitarisation and denazification.

Yeah, they're not close to agreeing anything at all.
 

Koala

New Member
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Pretty much all the Russia supporters on here, that's who.

When did I ever do that? Please link to my post when I said I believed it. I don't believe the claims of either side without corroboration.
I remember pictures of soldiers running along "this (?) Autobahn" with its soundproofing wall a few days ago. The problem with these pictures in general is, that we do not know the time it was taken and more important the place. No coordinates, no town or village stated where the incidence occured. I am not sure if it is possible to pose before a tank that you destroyed some minutes / hours (?) before. Because: Where are the Russians? All fled back to Russia or already POW? So maybe this guy is scavenging on someones sucess a few days before. I am just assuming.

With no doubt, the Russian Army had "unexpected" casualties. The Ukrainians must have an excellent staff and communications, if they are still able to collect all the messages from all the battle fronts about the losses of the Russians. Maybe, but who knows?

Counting is always difficult in war. Especially in a media-war.

Regards
Koala
 

Bill Blazo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Guardian update. Not sure how US UK and Turkey are supposed to guarantee security of Ukraine without at least some presence there. Anyway this plan would succeed in ending the immediate conflict and giving Ukraine time to properly tool up with western kit so as to give Russia an even bigger thrashing if they try anything again. Sanctions should stay until Putin is handed over to the Hague, the sequestered Russian reserves should be used to compensate Ukraine for the damage caused.


Ukraine and Russia have drawn up a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, the
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citing three sources involved in the talks.


The proposed deal would involve
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renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian president
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, told the FT that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on 24 February – namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed the tentative 15-point plan in full for the first time on Monday, the paper reports.
There's absolutely no way in hell, having sacrificed so much in lives and equipment, that Russian forces will withdraw from their gains in the east and the south. Maybe the north, yes, since the northern front has been a disaster from day 1. But only defeat on the battlefield is going to make the Russians leave Mariupol, Kherson, Melitopol, and so many other places.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's the minsk II threaties more or less... it was proposed well before the war. All that blood for that ? No way Russia will accept that, it's way too late.
I believe that they might, depending on the details of the neutrality agreement.

This conflict started when Yanukovych was ousted through a coup. Even IF the majority of Ukrainians accepted or supported it at the time. It was still a coup. The Maidan Protests were hijacked by Banderites, Svoboda, Neonazis, and other Far Right groups that orchestrated organize violence and violent provocations. Even Western Media sources such as the BBC acknowledge that.

IT WAS A COUP, Western governmemts and Western Main Stream Media will not acknowledge that it was. The United States that the Ukrainian Parliament voted unanimously to impeach Yanukovych. They did not. 328 of 450 deputies did. The rest were not present. And aside from going through a set of judicial procedures, which were not followed, to involuntarily remove a President in Ukraine from from office requires at least 3/4 of parliamentarians to vote for it. That means 338 of them and not 328 of them. The United States immediately endorsed this illegality, claiming it was legal, despite it not being legal.

The coup brought a government that was significant or greatly influenced and dominated at the time by Far Right and anti-Russian. Persons belonging to such parties obtained a quarter of cabinet positions in the immediate post Yanukovych government.

Russia decided to take Crimea because of its strategic importance and because it could no longer assure itself that future governments in power would honour the status of its lease to the base at Sebastopol. Many members of the new government in power had not hidden their intention to eventually terminate the lease that Russia had on the base at Sebastopol much earlier than its signed for date.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
That's assuming Russia forgets or Ukraine agrees with the other points, demilitarisation and denazification.

Yeah, they're not close to agreeing anything at all.
Would prefer that Russia gets a land connection to Crimea at minimum and preferably capture all the coast line from Ukraine.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Russia claims all of the Donbas. Accepting a half measure is not good.
We will see... Russia is going to capture Mariupol, almost certainly so...
Minsk Protocol recognised Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbass, they just had to give them regional autonomy. This is handing them over to Russia.

Zelensky is going to turn into the most hated man in Ukraine if he agrees to this. Even the Minsk agreements were controversial. A significant proportion of the Ukrainian people even want Crimea back.

That's assuming Russia forgets or Ukraine agrees with the other points, demilitarisation and denazification.

Yeah, they're not close to agreeing anything at all.
Russia, IMO, bit too much when it recognized the Donbass Republics... It should have just asked for the implementation of the Minsk Protocol and stated that its forces would be present in Donbass to ensure that it is implemented... Now, backing down from that will be a major climb down...
 

Koala

New Member
Registered Member
I believe that they might, depending on the details of the neutrality agreement.

This conflict started when Yanukovych was ousted through a coup. Even IF the majority of Ukrainians accepted or supported it at the time. It was still a coup. The Maidan Protests were hijacked by Banderites, Svoboda, Neonazis, and other Far Right groups that orchestrated organize violence and violent provocations. Even Western Media sources such as the BBC acknowledge that.

IT WAS A COUP, Western governmemts and Western Main Stream Media will not acknowledge that it was.

The beloved philantropist "Mr. Soros" and his gang financed the "orange Revolution" with 5 Billionen Dollars over a long time. A few years ago this fact was even reported on German TV, when freedom of speech was still granted.

Same story on the Balkan and Belarus. They tried to start the same thing in Hungary, but Mr. Orban threw him out of the country.
 
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