Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

Equation

Lieutenant General
UK says photos show Russian missiles in Ukraine

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"The presence of the SA-22 in eastern Ukraine is yet more proof of direct Russian military involvement in the conflict," the British ambassador to NATO, Adam Thomson, said in releasing the pictures via Twitter.

"We call on Russia to fully implement its Minsk commitments," he said, referring to a truce agreement that calls for withdrawal of foreign forces from Ukraine.

The British slide is headed "How to recognize Russia's Pantsir-S1 (or SA-22) which is not operated by Ukrainian forces."

Russia has denied repeated Western accusations that it has sent soldiers and large amounts of heavy weaponry to eastern Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday that "Russian forces, artillery and air defense units as well as command and control elements are still active in Ukraine."
 

advill

Junior Member
I also hope the opposing forces will be civil during the "civil war". My take is that if the US and NATO (especially Germany & France) show their indecisiveness in this crisis, President Putin being a crafty strategist & a "master of the game" will do what he feels is best to regain the lost Soviet satellite states and the former Tsar's Russian "Empire". Several military and political strategists will admire, though most do not respect Putin's adventures.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
The NYT begs to disagree with the President of Ukraine.

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Bloody Retreat Adds to Doubt for Ukraine Truce
ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine — Ukrainian soldiers were forced to fight their way out of the embattled town of Debaltseve in the early hours of Wednesday, casting further doubt on the credibility of a days-old cease-fire and eroding the promise of ending a war in Europe that has killed more than 5,000 people.

It was unclear Wednesday how many of the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trapped in the eastern Ukrainian town had survived the hellish retreat under enemy fire and avoided capture. President Petro O. Poroshenko put the figure at 80 percent, but since the Ukrainian military has never commented on its troop strength, the final accounting may never be known.

By midday on Wednesday, as limping and exhausted soldiers began showing up in
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-held territory, it became clear that the Ukrainian forces had suffered major losses, both in equipment and human life.




 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Still waiting to understand what exactly has happened at Debaltsevo.
The media claims that some 2500 troops retreated from the town to Artemivsk. If so that would support claims that Debaltsevo was not physically or even effectively enclosed.

I am not entirely convinced by that argument. If the road was open and a force of 5 - 8 thousand in the area with only six killed as a result of a mass NAF armoured assault, why would they fall back?
I very much suspect that the troops we saw in Artemivsk were the remains of an unblocking force that failed to break the NAF enclosing forces.

This of course would mean that the Debaltsevo garrison would have retreated to the countryside to the South of the town and one can only speculate as to the numbers and condition of the survivors.

The stories in the media today are also very revealing.
Poroshenko calling for UN Peacekeepers is as close to an admission of defeat as you are likely to get, while UK Defence Secretary Fallon talking about a robust defence of the Baltic states, rather indicates that the Ukraine is now considered a lost cause.

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What comes next is I think one of two main options.
1) Effective freezing of the conflict along general contact lines
2) Rapid Political/Military implosion of Kiev government and forces with the NAF unable to advance as quickly as pro US forces retreat.

The key will be what actually has just happened in Debaltsevo.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
Long amble about the significance of the Cauldron and what it means. But more interesting is the repeated comments of the presence of western mercenaries and NATO advisers trapped within the Cauldron and the exposure of such a matter to the world and the people of Europe.
That goes a long way to Putin's very confident statement that US/NATO had indeed been rearming Ukraine despite their public denials.

Let's see what Russia and the militia can show the world now that they have taken the town and Kiev forces have either escaped out of moved further south into deep militia controlled territories from which only option is to surrender.
Or would Russia and the militia do a deal and help keep that not so secret secret of NATO involvement?

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The Beautiful Truth about Minsk II & The Debaltsevo Debacle
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
The comments of the Kiev forces would give an idea of what really happened to the Kiev forces being "able" to make an organised and safe withdrawal to Kiev controlled territory.

The militia already said the remaining Kiev forces moved South, meaning deeper into militia controlled territory.

I've read elsewhere that the militia will not waste energy to attack this retreating group headon as they have nowhere to go now and will eventually be starved into surrendering.
We should be able to know soon how many Kiev dead, wounded and captured soon as the militia were able to give such a figure soon after taking Donetsk airport. Then we'd have a good idea of how many are in this Kiev group that escaped south, assuming we use the least estimated figure of 5,000 as the Kiev soldiers trapped in the Cauldron to begin with.

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Still waiting to understand what exactly has happened at Debaltsevo.
The media claims that some 2500 troops retreated from the town to Artemivsk. If so that would support claims that Debaltsevo was not physically or even effectively enclosed.

I am not entirely convinced by that argument. If the road was open and a force of 5 - 8 thousand in the area with only six killed as a result of a mass NAF armoured assault, why would they fall back?
I very much suspect that the troops we saw in Artemivsk were the remains of an unblocking force that failed to break the NAF enclosing forces.

This of course would mean that the Debaltsevo garrison would have retreated to the countryside to the South of the town and one can only speculate as to the numbers and condition of the survivors.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
This report has more details than the others. Seems about 1,000 Kiev soldiers managed to make it out north to Artemivsk, leaving another 3,000 still trapped.

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Our source in Artemovsk reports that the remnants of Ukrainian units having “broken through” from the Debaltsevo cauldron — there are about 1000 of them, more than one third of the troopers wounded and shell-shocked — are on the brink of rebellion. Ukrainian troopers claim that they had been betrayed, and Petro Poroshenko is personally responsible for this betrayal.
The tragedy of the “breakthrough” from the cauldron occurred under the following circumstances:

On February 17 the command of the 128th Transcarpathian independent mountain infantry division in the person of Colonel Sergey Shaptalo entered into negotiations with the commanders of storming Debaltsevo units of the DPR and LPR Army. At the moment Sergey Shaptalo was the most senior officer of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the cauldron, as all the top command of the sector “S” fled from the “non-existent” pocket a week before. According to the words of the troopers Shaptalo negotiated the exit of the 128th brigade in trucks with light firearms. However in the course of implementation of the agreement he tried, under the pressure of Kiev, to withdraw a convoy of armoured vehicles. It happened so that the staff column and approximately half of the personnel passed freely, and the second and the third convoys consisting of armoured vehicles, the separatists” crashed to pieces.

Notably, as a result of retreat of the 128th brigade, units of the DPR and LPR Armies thanks to the ensuing gap in Ukrainian defense had practically eliminated the Debaltsevo cauldron, having captured without fighting, for instance, locality of Olkhovatka, in which Ukrainian Army abandoned several dozens of armoured vehicles and a lot of artillery. According to different estimates made by the troopers that retreated to Artemovsk, after their retreat about 3000 men remained in the cauldron. Most probably they had already surrendered to militiamen. Also, in the process of the march on Artemovsk about 300 troopers from the 128th brigade and other units surrendered to the DPR Army on their own accord.



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