Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

pla101prc

Senior Member
And this kind of videos which I'm sure those Ukrainian youngsters watch doesn't make them eager to "kick some Russian asses" out of their country? What do you think?

WARNING: graphic content here (so much that I'm pretty astonished that's still on Youtube)

givi gets a lil too intense sometimes, that guy needs to get a girlfriend and chillout once in a while. learn from motorola
 

solarz

Brigadier
Interesting. Both sides have access to tons of artillery, but little (UAF) to none (NAF) airforce. Presumably the UAF has given up on using airstrikes due to the effectiveness of NAF anti-air capability.

I think this shows that air power is only decisive when one side does not have an answer for it. Aircrafts are magnitudes more expensive than anti-air systems, so air power quickly becomes too expensive to use.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Furthermore, I think there was a pattern between the frequency of UAF aerial incursions and the amount of artillery the NAF brings to bear. As the threat of UAF airforce diminished, the amount of artillery deployed by the NAF increased.

It's pretty clear that the NAF would not be able to access this amount of artillery solely from captured UAF equipment, so they must be supplied from Russia. Moving artillery is no easy task with NATO satellite surveillance, so this must have take quite some time, not to mention you also need qualified personnel to operate the artillery.

The current NAF offensive is in marked contrast with their defensive operations last year, when they had a severe lack of armor and heavy weapons, and were really struggling to fill the breaches, so to speak. Their current offensive is methodical and well-coordinated, which means they must have been preparing for this for a long time.

Therefore, the current offensive must have had full Russian blessing, which means the recent "peace talks" were a complete smoke screen. While in hindsight, that is not a particularly extraordinary insight, it does put to rest the question of whether Putin and the NAF are on the same page.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
Interesting. Both sides have access to tons of artillery, but little (UAF) to none (NAF) airforce. Presumably the UAF has given up on using airstrikes due to the effectiveness of NAF anti-air capability.

I think this shows that air power is only decisive when one side does not have an answer for it. Aircrafts are magnitudes more expensive than anti-air systems, so air power quickly becomes too expensive to use.
good point, though i would like to add that air power, being a "system of systems", requires tremendous material and technical support in order to be effective. Ukraine's air power has unfortunately been hollowed by the depletion of its critical infrastructure over the decades in which it had been cutting back on defence. with the same arsenal i suspect Americans would have made better use of it than Ukrainians.
 

solarz

Brigadier
good point, though i would like to add that air power, being a "system of systems", requires tremendous material and technical support in order to be effective. Ukraine's air power has unfortunately been hollowed by the depletion of its critical infrastructure over the decades in which it had been cutting back on defence. with the same arsenal i suspect Americans would have made better use of it than Ukrainians.

Oh no doubt about it, but then Americans would not be fighting Ukrainian rebels in the first place. :)
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
according to militarymaps.info it seems that NAF has not been able to fully close the debaltseve pockets, having met stiff resistance around the resevoirs. to compensate for this setback though they have occupied a few heights along the highway leading out of the pocket from debaltseve. north of all this is the battle fro Popasnaya, with multiple twitter accounts claiming that it has already fallen to NAF. if this is true it would set the stage for next round of offensive once victory at debaltseve is assured, in typical soviet fashion of successive exploitation with follow-on echelons, albeit at a miniature scale.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
Actually that is a conjecture since even NATO and US, with their all seeing eyes in the sky, have not provided any proof of this. During the last major fighting period and the collapse of the Kiev army huge stockpiles of ammo, rockets and vehicles were literally abandoned in the headlong run westwards. In the period since the militia would have been able to restore more of the captured but damaged pieces.

The only clues of Russian direct assistance were to be found in the admissions of the militia that Moscow has reopened the "PX". In what form then we don't have any idea. Recently there were some reports that the militia used TOS-1 thermobaric rockets in the repulse of the Kiev counterattack at Donetsk airport. But photos there are none. Looking at the new trucks that the militia have been using in their convoys then it would be safe to assume that those were provided by the Russians and could even cross the OSCE monitored checkpoints and not be noted as war weapons by them.

Furthermore, I think there was a pattern between the frequency of UAF aerial incursions and the amount of artillery the NAF brings to bear. As the threat of UAF airforce diminished, the amount of artillery deployed by the NAF increased.

It's pretty clear that the NAF would not be able to access this amount of artillery solely from captured UAF equipment, so they must be supplied from Russia. Moving artillery is no easy task with NATO satellite surveillance, so this must have take quite some time, not to mention you also need qualified personnel to operate the artillery.

The current NAF offensive is in marked contrast with their defensive operations last year, when they had a severe lack of armor and heavy weapons, and were really struggling to fill the breaches, so to speak. Their current offensive is methodical and well-coordinated, which means they must have been preparing for this for a long time.

Therefore, the current offensive must have had full Russian blessing, which means the recent "peace talks" were a complete smoke screen. While in hindsight, that is not a particularly extraordinary insight, it does put to rest the question of whether Putin and the NAF are on the same page.
 
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