Re: What is the probability that 022 is actually a landing craft?
Jeff, you ignored my arguments.
1. Why would USN put her ships into the attack range of PLAAF? Attack Chinese land targets can be done by cruiser missiles. Close air protection and more can be done by land based aircrafts in Taiwan. Why risk your ships when they can do their jobs a few hundred kms further from the shore? You have to use your CVs to attack PRC's land targets?
2. You ignored my arguments on why Japan will not enter the war with China. What will they benefit from it? What will they lose? What if their super fragile cities and industry centers got hit by Chinse missiles? Where big oil tanks, electricity plants, Chemical factories all densely consentrated within the area of a missile's CEP. Industrial facilities have always been legal targets of US military operations, right? OK US can hit back for them but does it make up anything for them? And US is already hitting, what difference does it make? They will lose their biggest trade partner and some very crucial elements of their production chain, which will be a total disaster of their economy. And I said very clear the PRC leaders can not survive from their own people if they don't give a hell to Japan should it entered war with China. Do I need to explain why?
And Japan will pleasantly take all these just because they love the United States of America, or Taiwan, so much, is that what you are saying?
3. I said "anything other than WMD", means not WMD, I hope my English is not that bad.
4. I explained the Japanese people's view toward war and military coalition with US, not that positive, as you can see. Also, they paid for those US weapon systems, and guarantteed the profit of US companies.
Yes China need to consider the possibility of Japan entering the war. But, the preparation of that will not be any single plane, not any single ship. Just one sentence: I dare you not.
A war with US, we lose. A war with US+Japan, we still lose. What difference does it make? And if Japan does not enter, US can finish the war after protecting Taiwan. If Japan enters, US has to continue the war to protect Japan, if US people loves Japan as much as a fraction of you supposed love from Japanese to US. And that will be nothing but a continuous hitting of Chinese and Japanese civil targets on the land and in the sea. It may continue for years and I am sure Japan will be more miserable than China.
To avoid a war between China and US, and any ally you supposed, is very simple. Just prevent Taiwan from formal independence. When they do, given them pressure together with China to make them give up. If it can't be prevented, the war starts. The US still have a choice because I don't see what benefits US from a war and a long term cold war afterwards with China. After all, Taiwan is not a formal ally with US and US recognized China's view that Taiwan as a part of China. But it seems that you don't look too much into it.
I can see from the history very well that US always react really tough on this kind of events. But I also see it does not always benefit, especially when China stands on the other side.
And China, will not initiate the attack if Taiwan doesn't declare independence. Chinese people love peace much more than US people. Also China does not have the strength to occupy Taiwan fast and smoothly, far from that, as I mensioned in PLAN amphibious assult ability thread.
China is mordenizing her military strength quickly, but without disturbing her economic develpment as well. So when China has the strength in this pace, the whole thing will be different. May be at that time Taiwan already dropped this independence fancy and that is the only way I can see how this problem will be finally solved.
They are still Chinese. It's really funny to see their politicians quoting ancient Chinese aphorisms to argue why they are cultually not Chinese.
Sorry mods, I never thought a wild guess of 022 can lead this far.