Trade War with China

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antiterror13

Brigadier
China only need ASML if it make product for the West. If stopping trade with West, then it can turn to lesser lithograph equipment supplier such as AMEC of Shanghai, it can make 90nm chip.

hmmm I didn't realise that China also makes lithography equipment even not as advance as ASML, but heyyy, it's just a matter of time catching up

Actually AMEC can make equipment tools for building 65/45/28-nm etch ... so reasonably advanced
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and this is a news in 2015 (3 years ago) ... so the short term target is 14nm finFET which will be achieved next year (2019)
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@Anlsvrthng
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Thanks Antiterror13 good reference Here is the pertinent paragraph
I have no doubt persistent investment in talent and capital investment eventually will paid off
This article is 2015 ancient time I will try to dig latest news

AMEC is one of several fab equipment suppliers in China. Basically, China consists of several relatively unknown players that compete in the following markets—SMEE (lithography); Kingsemi (resist equipment); AMEC and NMC (etch); ACM, Sevenstar and Kingsemi (surface conditioning); Sevenstar (thermal processing); CETC (ion implanters); NMC and Piotech (deposition); Tianjin Hwatsing (CMP); and Raintree (inspection).

Still, the question is clear. With backing from the government, will Chinese fab tool vendors succeed?

It’s difficult to predict the future, but the trends are clear. As before, multinational toolmakers will continue to dominate the landscape in China. The multinationals have strong technology and capital. And they are well established in the region. A few Chinese equipment makers may succeed, but most will flounder. Many simply don’t have the technology.

“Local companies are now developing and providing equipment for PVD, CVD, etch, implant, clean, and lithography, and they have achieved some acceptance in certain pockets of the market,” Lam’s Liu said. “Wafer fabrication equipment is complex, and is a sophisticated technology that requires extensive testing, refinement in development, and optimization for a mass production environment. So, experience is an important factor in this industry.”

In any case, there are two areas worth watching in the Chinese equipment market—etch and lithography for packaging.

In etch, China’s AMEC is making inroads in the market. It has a significant installed base in China and elsewhere, and the company’s dielectric etchers are being used for advanced logic, memory and packaging. “We’ve built our company from the outset to serve a global market, not just domestic customers,” AMEC’s Yin said.

AMEC is the exception to the rule among China’s fab tool vendors. Besides technology and a customer base, the company has several years of experience in the business.

Meanwhile, China’s IC-packaging market is another area to watch. “The China advanced packaging market continues to grow, and all indications are that this will continue through 2016,” said Rezwan Lateef, general manager and vice president of lithography products at Ultratech. “The growth is largely based on standard RDL and copper pillar applications, where the technology is well understood and Chinese manufacturers can offer very competitive pricing.”

Still, there are challenges in this arena. “The main challenge for a multinational equipment company will be to develop a technical support infrastructure to a regional industry that is still in its infancy and requires substantial hand holding,” Lateef said. Over time, though, China plans to inject more funds into its domestic
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s, which is both good and bad news for multinational equipment makers. On one hand, China’s OSATs will buy more equipment. But on the other hand, the funding will also help propel rival Chinese equipment makers.

This, in turn, will intensify the competition among equipment vendors in select markets. For example, the lithography market for packaging applications consists of several competitors, including ASML, Canon, EV Group, Nikon, Suss, Rudolph, Ultratech and Ushio.

The multinationals also compete against Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), China’s sole supplier of lithography tools. SMEE has made some inroads in the IC-packaging market. But SMEE is also a thorn in the side of the multinationals, as it basically competes on the basis of price, according to analysts.

For now, China’s domestic equipment vendors will continue to plod along. But over time, China may need to consider a new strategy—it may need to buy a multinational equipment company to obtain the technology. There are several takeover targets in the equipment industry. But even if it takes this path, it might be too late for China. To be sure, today’s equipment business is a tough and maturing market.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
hmmm I didn't realise that China also makes lithography equipment even not as advance as ASML, but heyyy, it's just a matter of time catching up

Actually AMEC can make equipment tools for building 65/45/28-nm etch ... so reasonably advanced
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and this is a news in 2015 (3 years ago) ... so the short term target is 14nm finFET which will be achieved next year (2019)
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@Anlsvrthng

You are comparing apples and oranges. AMEC cannot manufacture EUV scanners. ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography equipment in the world. Every major chip fab (Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and soon SMIC) has to use EUV equipment from ASML. Without EUV, forget about producing anything smaller than 14nm.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
As with all markets, the key is demand.

In the past, Chinese domestic vendors have suffered because Chinese companies wanted the latest and best components, in order to better compete with leading international brands. As such, they preferred foreign suppliers, who often also supply their rivals.

Without the demand and order books to build up economies of scale and finance the vast investments needed to make the latest gen of products, Chinese domestic companies were fighting an uphill battle.

However, Trump has massively helped Chinese component makes, because everyone saw what happened to ZTE, and no one wants that to happen to them.

That means that supply security has been hammered home in the minds of all of China’s tech companies. It doesn’t matter how good your products are if foreign competitors can lobby the US government to effectively shut you down overnight by banning the export of key components.

When faced with a potentially existential threat, paying a few cents more on the dollar for local components isn’t that big of a deal.

With the demand there, the market will find a way to meet that demand.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
You are comparing apples and oranges. AMEC cannot manufacture EUV scanners. ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography equipment in the world. Every major chip fab (Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and soon SMIC) has to use EUV equipment from ASML. Without EUV, forget about producing anything smaller than 14nm.

huhhhh ... none of 14nm is used EUV. ASML EUV is for 7nm and below

hope you knew better of EUV before criticizing other long time members here :mad:
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
You are comparing apples and oranges. AMEC cannot manufacture EUV scanners. ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography equipment in the world. Every major chip fab (Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and soon SMIC) has to use EUV equipment from ASML. Without EUV, forget about producing anything smaller than 14nm.
You don't need anything smaller than 14nm. It's good enough.
A example is a window XP system still good enough if you can made those chips for replacement due to aging.

I have a feeling 7nm is the last stop for an economic viable solution.

They encounter alot of unpredictable quantum effect at 5nm and may not be viable anymore
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
The question, as I have always said, can China last 3 years?

Some good news for you, buddy.
US housing slowing down. Price already too high.
Same with stock market.

If Trump hit $500billion tariff, guarantee inflation and recession.

He knows it, that's why they went other route of teaming up with EU after he tweeted $500 billion tariff. It's a big time bluff.

They planned first $50billion 25% tariff is targeted toward China tech products. Then the $450billion followed is for basic living stuff.

They only want $50 billion tariff to stymie China tech development.

Bottom line US wants China to low and medium level supplier in large quantity for its living. Trump originally want ls to shave $100 billion deficit.

So, based on that, I think Trump wants China to supply goods at $275 billion surplus. $375-$100 =$275.
 
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Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
huhhhh ... none of 14nm is used EUV. ASML EUV is for 7nm and below

hope you knew better of EUV before criticizing other long time members here :mad:
Read carefully. I said "Without EUV, forget about producing anything smaller than 14nm." Also, how does you being a longtime member have anything to do with this? Do you expect people to defer to your online "seniority"? I advise you to drop this ridiculous arrogance.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
You don't need anything smaller than 14nm. It's good enough.
A example is a window XP system still good enough if you can made those chips for replacement due to aging.

I have a feeling 7nm is the last stop for an economic viable solution.

They encounter alot of unpredictable quantum effect at 5nm and may not be viable anymore

"Good enough" always seems good enough until it isn't. As AR/VR/ML become increasingly sophisticated, computing demands are being pushed exponentially higher. Stalling in IC technology is not an option for China unless you want to forfeit any chance of leadership in these future technologies.
 
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