Trade War with China

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Anlsvrthng

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antiterror13 said:
What are you talking about ?
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Currently the semi industry using 193 nm light source to make the ICs, but to make details as small say10nm it needs not one, but lot of ( 6/8/10) mask, to create an interference pattern.

At this point now the mask design/making cost lot of money, as I remember in the half billion $/IC design.

That is the reason why many IC design never migrated from bigger scales, the cost of move prohibitive.

And say if China wants to make ICs for low volume military application then by very high chance it will be made on 90, maybe 45 nm technology, otherwise a small volume order will have long lead time and million dollars tooling/design cost per IC.

The next generation lithography will be 13.5nm ,it doesn't multiple masking on this detail level, but the development of it is taking extremely long time, and very expensive.

And there is still many technological issue with it.

Actually, there is a big question mark if it will be possible to decrease the per transistor cost with any future technology..
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
Anlsvrthng said:
Currently the semi industry using 193 nm light source to make the ICs, but to make details as small say10nm it needs not one, but lot of ( 6/8/10) mask, to create an interference pattern.

At this point now the mask design/making cost lot of money, as I remember in the half billion $/IC design.

That is the reason why many IC design never migrated from bigger scales, the cost of move prohibitive.

And say if China wants to make ICs for low volume military application then by very high chance it will be made on 90, maybe 45 nm technology, otherwise a small volume order will have long lead time and million dollars tooling/design cost per IC.

The next generation lithography will be 13.5nm ,it doesn't multiple masking on this detail level, but the development of it is taking extremely long time, and very expensive.

And there is still many technological issue with it.

Actually, there is a big question mark if it will be possible to decrease the per transistor cost with any future technology..
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it's coming sooner than you thought
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and it was in 2014
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
nugroho said:
If you do that means we lose ASML who supply us lithography equipment, and a lot of semiconductor supplier that we still don't have subsitute ( remember ZTE ). Surely we can turn to Japan, Korea and Taiwan, but are they willing to?

What you proposed will be very good if China is sufficient without west good, but now we still depend a lot to west ( and vice versa too ).

remember your article : Two Critical areas China lacking in the Semiconductor areas must be addressed.
I agree with it
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China only need ASML if it make product for the West. If stopping trade with West, then it can turn to lesser lithograph equipment supplier such as AMEC of Shanghai, it can make 90nm chip.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
This quite important, not to bump into the regular trade war thread.

One of the thing Trump wants is no China government subsidies for heavy involvement into hightech especially Semiconductor.

In 2019, China Nand flash, DRAM will enter production. Also 14nm finfet foundry by SMIC also come on board.

Give them the critical time to stand up.

Also the transition from Intel/window to domestic produced CPU and Linux system. it will take a few years.

3 minimum years needed.
No interference from Trump on this

That's why China needs to fight the trade war for 3 years.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
This 3 years will be vengeful purging of American tech in China with Maoism chacteristics. the tear down will be permanent. This will be punishment for Trump for starting the trade war.

Once trade war finished, China will treat US like a natural resource state, aka Auatralia, buy it's gas , oil, cotton, soybean, beef, hog.
And probably some of US made clothing, jacket and shoes. US hightech will be outcasts but US farmers will be treated like Kings.

And the trade deficit/surplus will be much balanced.
 
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Ultra

Ultra

Junior Member
Trump is not going to take a "No".

And there are multiple "trump cards" Trump can play to get China to the table or even to submit.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ultra said:
Trump is not going to take a "No".

And there are multiple "trump cards" Trump can play to get China to the table or even to submit.
Click to expand...
Haha,
Dream on, buddy.
You are just like one of those Trump supporter very antsy to get the winning.
Crap, the thing hasn't even warm up yet.

I tell you what.
The Chinese are planning 10 years trade war according to some of the article I
 
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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The KOREANS and the TAIWANESE lured ex-engineers from Japanese semiconduct giants with huge 3X-5X wage increases.

That's how Koreans and Taiwanese are world leaders in semiconductor manufacturing.

It's trivially easy for the Chinese to lure ex-engineers from Taiwan, Japan, Korea with 3X-5X wage increases. It's perfectly legal to emulate the Korean/Taiwanese strategy for success.
 
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