Trade War with China

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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Trump is the best thing that can happen to China to be frank.

At this critical stage, China, under a decent leader, steer China into high-tech self-reliance, that's the best gift that Trump can bestow upon China at the moment.

The more China becomes technologically self-sufficient and less reliant on foreign chip imports, the better!

China cannot just be reliant on foreign imports, it's a huge weakness that US can bully China over (see ZTE take as hostage)!!
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Besides the suffocation of the Qualcomm acquisition of NXP, it seems that the Chinese deemed that the responses of the US airlines partially complied with Chinese law in regards to the Taiwan situation.

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China says four US airlines have missed a deadline to change their naming of Taiwan
  • American, Delta, Hawaiian and United have changed how they refer to self-governed Taiwan on their websites to avoid Chinese penalties ahead of a Wednesday deadline.
  • However the Chinese Aviation authority says the changes are incomplete, although does not specify why.
  • China has previously asked that airlines in particular do not refer to Taiwan as a non-Chinese territory on their websites.
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Published 10 Hours AgoCNBC.com
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GREG BAKER | AFP | Getty Images
A sign indicates the departure area for flights leaving Beijing airport on July 25, 2018.
Four U.S. airlines have failed to satisfy China's aviation regulator over their website descriptions of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

China is asking foreign companies to avoid referring to Taiwan in particular as a country in its own right. Beijing policy dictates that China will refuse diplomatic relations with any country that recognizes the island as a sovereign state.


In my opinion, if we assume that Chinese laws were similar to that of the US, then Delta, United, American, and Hawaiian airlines are going to be fined heavily, leading to a retaliatory response from the US. This would potentially escalate the trade war.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
Offer two type of products.
One based on domestic chips and Chinese government will purchase those for domestic use.


Easy, make two type of products.
The one sell to EU will use Western chips.
The one used in China will use domestic chips for national security reason, don't care how good other chips are.


Anyway, what you said is exactly what Trump would said to discourage China from switching to domestic chips!!!!!
defense stuff use domestic is fine, but making two type product design manufacture etc cost $$$ also are you gonna force domestic consumer to buy inferior product? for example telecon, using inferior product will lower efficiency add cost etc etc, it just bad for economy. easy to say then done, if it doesn't affect the economy and company cost, the government would be doing it long time ago.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
defense stuff use domestic is fine, but making two type product design manufacture etc cost $$$ also are you gonna force domestic consumer to buy inferior product? for example telecon, using inferior product will lower efficiency add cost etc etc, it just bad for economy. easy to say then done, if it doesn't affect the economy and company cost, the government would be doing it long time ago.

If you are behind by 30 years it is not easy to catch up.They did try built semiconductor industry in 80's.But with not much success due to basically 3 thing is lacking . Basic electronic industry is very low in technology, Pull factor of not much demand for semiconductor in those days, Push factor is alos lacking Money and technical talent were scarce and There is any giant telco or equipment maker like Huawei in those days.

Now is different story they have all those factor in place and they start first with simplest memory chip and go to next chip of CPU and GBU. Via Taishang

Asian chipmakers forecast strong profits

Source:Reuters-Global Times Published: 2018/7/27 0:03:40


Production plans in focus as super-cycle winds down
1cbf673a-0308-4d90-8178-d1c850f7ea34.jpeg

Main: An overview of a chip-making project construction site of Yangtze Memory Technologies in Wuhan, capital of Central China's Hubei Province in 2016 Photo: VCG


fac39be1-23c7-464c-8bbf-9c680912b162.jpeg

Inset: A view of the 3D NAND flash chip developed by Yangtze River Technologies Company during a high-tech expo in Beijing in May Photo: IC



Asian memory chipmakers' production plans and outlooks will be closely watched as they start reporting earnings this week, following sharp falls in their stock prices due to concerns that a 2-year industry super-cycle may be skidding to a halt.

The $121 billion global memory chip industry has been enjoying an unprecedented boom since late 2016, with profits surging to record highs and margins rising above 70 percent thanks to disciplined production after years of consolidation.

But the industry's shift to a newer technology of 3D NAND flash stacks - which are cheaper to assemble than outgoing two-dimensional chips - has seen output grow faster than demand this year and forced smaller players to aggressively cut prices to keep market share.

Average NAND flash memory chip prices have nearly halved from a peak in 2017, and concerns of further declines sent shares of the major producers such as South Korea's SK Hynix down 7 percent on Monday.

NAND flash memory chips, used for longer-term data storage, are found in mobile devices as well as memory cards, USB flash drives and solid-state drives.

"The margins are getting worse mainly because the average selling price decrease turns out to be much faster than cost reductions," said Alan Chen, director at market research firm DRAMeXchange.

He forecast the price decline would continue for the rest of this year.

Nomura estimates that supplies of NAND flash chips will grow by about 40-50 percent this year, just as demand eases off due to slowing global smartphone sales, causing prices to decline by nearly 20 percent.

Dream-busters

Prices of DRAM memory chips - which help servers, gaming PCs and cryptocurrency mining devices process large amounts of streaming data - are up by more than 20 percent this year.

But they are losing momentum amid a Chinese price-fixing probe against industry heavyweights such as Samsung Electronics Co and China's drive to build homegrown chip champions to cut its reliance on foreign supplies.

The country has made the semiconductor sector a priority under its "Made in China 2025" plan, and three firms - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co, Innotron Memory and Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit - are getting ready to mass-produce memory chips, according to analysts.

"Until the first half of next year, Chinese firms' production scales will be small but as their yield rates get better and lead to increased output, that will influence the semiconductor market from the second half of 2019," said Song Myung-sup, an analyst at HI Investment & Securities.

Andrew Norwood, lead analyst at US-based research firm Gartner, said China's entry into the market could be one of the factors behind a move by Samsung to aggressively expand its capacity. He also noted that 2020 and 2021 would see more "significant revenue reductions."

Others are more optimistic, pointing to demand from data centers and new technologies such as 5G mobile network and autonomous driving.

"Although profit growth momentum is likely to disappear, we believe an operating profit level of $90 billion can be sustained in 2019, instead of crumbling down badly," BNP Paribas analyst Peter Yu said in a report.

"Fat and steady profit is the new norm for the memory industry."

Samsung, the world's top chipmaker, is expected to post a record profit of 12.5 trillion won ($11 billion) from chip sales in the quarter ending in June, up 50 percent from a year ago. Its hometown rival SK Hynix was also likely to report a 74 percent jump to a record 5.4 trillion won.

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@qwerrty
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
If you are behind by 30 years it is not easy to catch up.They did try built semiconductor industry in 80's.But with not much success due to basically 3 thing is lacking . Basic electronic industry is very low in technology, Pull factor of not much demand for semiconductor in those days, Push factor is alos lacking Money and technical talent were scarce and There is any giant telco or equipment maker like Huawei in those days.

Now is different story they have all those factor in place and they start first with simplest memory chip and go to next chip of CPU and GBU. Via Taishang

Asian chipmakers forecast strong profits

Source:Reuters-Global Times Published: 2018/7/27 0:03:40


Production plans in focus as super-cycle winds down
1cbf673a-0308-4d90-8178-d1c850f7ea34.jpeg

Main: An overview of a chip-making project construction site of Yangtze Memory Technologies in Wuhan, capital of Central China's Hubei Province in 2016 Photo: VCG


fac39be1-23c7-464c-8bbf-9c680912b162.jpeg

Inset: A view of the 3D NAND flash chip developed by Yangtze River Technologies Company during a high-tech expo in Beijing in May Photo: IC



Asian memory chipmakers' production plans and outlooks will be closely watched as they start reporting earnings this week, following sharp falls in their stock prices due to concerns that a 2-year industry super-cycle may be skidding to a halt.

The $121 billion global memory chip industry has been enjoying an unprecedented boom since late 2016, with profits surging to record highs and margins rising above 70 percent thanks to disciplined production after years of consolidation.

But the industry's shift to a newer technology of 3D NAND flash stacks - which are cheaper to assemble than outgoing two-dimensional chips - has seen output grow faster than demand this year and forced smaller players to aggressively cut prices to keep market share.

Average NAND flash memory chip prices have nearly halved from a peak in 2017, and concerns of further declines sent shares of the major producers such as South Korea's SK Hynix down 7 percent on Monday.

NAND flash memory chips, used for longer-term data storage, are found in mobile devices as well as memory cards, USB flash drives and solid-state drives.

"The margins are getting worse mainly because the average selling price decrease turns out to be much faster than cost reductions," said Alan Chen, director at market research firm DRAMeXchange.

He forecast the price decline would continue for the rest of this year.

Nomura estimates that supplies of NAND flash chips will grow by about 40-50 percent this year, just as demand eases off due to slowing global smartphone sales, causing prices to decline by nearly 20 percent.

Dream-busters

Prices of DRAM memory chips - which help servers, gaming PCs and cryptocurrency mining devices process large amounts of streaming data - are up by more than 20 percent this year.

But they are losing momentum amid a Chinese price-fixing probe against industry heavyweights such as Samsung Electronics Co and China's drive to build homegrown chip champions to cut its reliance on foreign supplies.

The country has made the semiconductor sector a priority under its "Made in China 2025" plan, and three firms - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co, Innotron Memory and Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit - are getting ready to mass-produce memory chips, according to analysts.

"Until the first half of next year, Chinese firms' production scales will be small but as their yield rates get better and lead to increased output, that will influence the semiconductor market from the second half of 2019," said Song Myung-sup, an analyst at HI Investment & Securities.

Andrew Norwood, lead analyst at US-based research firm Gartner, said China's entry into the market could be one of the factors behind a move by Samsung to aggressively expand its capacity. He also noted that 2020 and 2021 would see more "significant revenue reductions."

Others are more optimistic, pointing to demand from data centers and new technologies such as 5G mobile network and autonomous driving.

"Although profit growth momentum is likely to disappear, we believe an operating profit level of $90 billion can be sustained in 2019, instead of crumbling down badly," BNP Paribas analyst Peter Yu said in a report.

"Fat and steady profit is the new norm for the memory industry."

Samsung, the world's top chipmaker, is expected to post a record profit of 12.5 trillion won ($11 billion) from chip sales in the quarter ending in June, up 50 percent from a year ago. Its hometown rival SK Hynix was also likely to report a 74 percent jump to a record 5.4 trillion won.

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@qwerrty

yes china is try to catch up and has a plan, but its gonna take some time, decades even. if china force domestic market using its chip now, it will only hinder its economic growth, and lower competitiveness within the country. China also try it in 2000's. Chip unlike military stuff, go out of date after 1-2yrs.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
yes china is try to catch up and has a plan, but its gonna take some time, decades even. if china force domestic market using its chip now, it will only hinder its economic growth, and lower competitiveness within the country. China also try it in 2000's. Chip unlike military stuff, go out of date after 1-2yrs.

I don't think it will take them decades They are not behind when it come to design. They are behind in manufacturing because it require huge sum of money And until recently the private sector shun investing large amount of money with low margin product. They prefer investing in software related application because of low investment and high margin

But the Trumph trade war change their mind set.Suddenly they realized that ll those fancy website won't work without proper hardware. so it is rude wake up call.
Now everybody are into the hardware. the Tencent, Alibaba, etc
 

Franklin

Captain
America's divided house.

US Senate quietly votes to cut tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods

With no debate, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and roughly 1,660 other items made outside the United States.
Nearly half of those items are produced in China, according to a Reuters analysis of government records.
The United States and China, the world's two largest economies, are increasingly at loggerheads over trade.

As trade tensions escalate between Washington and Beijing, the U.S. Senate quietly passed legislation on Thursday that would lower trade barriers on hundreds of items made in China.

With no debate, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and roughly 1,660 other items made outside the United States.

Nearly half of those items are produced in China, according to a Reuters analysis of government records.

The United States and China, the world's two largest economies, are increasingly at loggerheads over trade.

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a series of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to halt a Chinese surge in high-technology industries that threatens to displace U.S. dominance. China has retaliated with its own duties on imports from the United States.

The White House has not publicly taken a position on the so-called miscellaneous tariff bill, which has now passed both the Senate and the House of Representatives unanimously. The two chambers need to resolve minor differences before they can send the legislation to Trump to sign into law.

Supporters of the bill have said it would boost the economy by getting rid of tariffs set up to protect industries that no longer exist in the United States. The National Association of Manufacturers has said U.S. businesses pay $1 million a day on such import duties.

"It makes no sense because it is a direct and punishing tax on making things in America and for creating jobs in America," the trade group's president, Jay Timmons, said in a prepared statement celebrating the bill's passage.

Among the beneficiaries are companies that have moved production offshore. Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co, for example, would pay reduced tariffs on Chinese-made toaster ovens, steam irons and other household appliances it used to make domestically.

Some domestic manufacturers have complained the bill would undercut their business by making it easier for rivals to bring in cheap foreign goods. They said the bill punished smaller firms that lack the ability to defend their interests in Washington.

The version of the bill that passed the House in January included 145 items that are made domestically, according to a Reuters analysis.

"There's no reason to block opportunity U.S. manufacturers might have for rebuilding our manufacturing base," Michael Korchmar, the head of a family-owned travel goods company in Florida, said in a phone interview earlier this month.

Korchmar earlier this year planned to hire up to 30 workers in his Naples, Florida, factory, but he put those plans on hold after being told by Reuters that the bill would lower tariffs on an insulated food bag that he planned to produce.

Korchmar said he may yet decide to expand production, because Democratic Senator Bill Nelson removed that item from the bill after Reuters wrote about it in March.

"We've got a good shot - we've lost a good bit of time and we have to re-evaluate the market," Korchmar said.

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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
true ... like Bill Gates once said "640K of memory was more than anyone needed." ;););)
Without Extreme UV it is not possible to get beyond this level.

But as is seems the EUV is extremely expensive and still not matured.

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Without that the tooling will be extremely expensive.

It is very expensive even now, that is the reason why the many stuff hasn't moved to the new technology.
 
now I read
China Is Still Stealing America’s Business Secrets, US Officials Say
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The 2015 agreement between Xi and Obama produced only a lull in Beijing’s economic espionage.

The Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property remains a “critical” threat, with perpetrators who have adapted to evade the strictures of a three-year-old ban on such hacking, according to a top-secret report intelligence officials sent j to Congress this week..

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In 2015, the U.S. and China
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to curb Chinese economic espionage over the Internet. That produced a “lull” in Chinese cyber theft, but did not stop it, William Evanina, the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, told reporters Thursday. As the digital ecosystem continues to expand so does the threat posed by Chinese industrial cyber theft to America’s long-term economic power.

Evanina’s office made a
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of the report available to journalists and to the public. It lists a variety of known cases of recent Chinese economic espionage, as well as other prepetrators of cyber economic espionage. But officials both during their briefing and in their report highlighted China.

“Most Chinese cyber operations against U.S. private industry that have been detected are focused on cleared defense contractors or IT and communications firms whose products and services support government and private sector networks worldwide,” it reads.

One such product, the report says, is
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, a popular consumer application that removes unwanted files from computers. Chinese cyber actors penetrated its production process and pasted malicious code into the application before it shipped, potentially compromising the computers of its 2.3 million customers.

“We are not prepared as a nation to deal with the supply chain threat, holistically,” said Evanina.

“We believe that China will continue to be a threat to U.S. proprietary technology and intellectual property through cyber-enabled means or other methods. If this threat is not addressed, it could erode America’s long-term competitive economic advantage,” says the nonclassified version of the report.

Among the industries in which China and other foreign nations have the most interest are: energy and alternative energy; biotechnology; defense technology; environmental protection; a high-end manufacturing, and information and communications technology.

Evanina said the good news is that detection and reporting of cyber espionage has gotten much faster than it was a few years ago.

“Last year represented a watershed in the reporting of software supply chain operations. In 2017, seven significant events were reported in the public domain compared to only four between 2014 and 2016. As the number of events grows, so too are the potential impacts,” notes the
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.

Michael Moss, the deputy director of the Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center, noted that reporting still isn’t keeping up with rapidly adapting hackers. “They’ll surprise me with how quickly they’ll move… how fast it continues to accelerate.”

The other piece of good news in the officials’ estimates: only a tiny slice of the exploits and vulnerabilities that hackers are using to conduct economic espionage are fancy
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that no one has ever seen, the sorts of bugs that you need a gymnasium full of cracker-jack military hackers to find. In fact, most are bugs and vulnerabilities that the public, and network managers, should already know about because they’re on the
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, a massive public list of software bugs maintained by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Software manufacturers will usually issue patches once a vulnerability in their software shows up on the list. But it’s up to individual IT managers at different companies and enterprises to then make sure that every machine is up to do date on all those patches.

“The trend is actually towards use of the less sophisticated, less expensive [publically known exploits.] That presents some second- and third-order complications, as well,” said Moss. ”One of the reasons that a nation state might be inspired to do that, since everybody’s using that tool, it’s harder to prove it was me that did it, right? Whereas if I have written custom code and I’ve used a certain tradecraft, I’ll do it a certain way, right? I’ll start to develop a…signature, right? I can be identified. Folks can say, ‘Hey, that looks like that. That’s usually used by country X, or country Y.’ But if I’m using that exploit tool that I downloaded, well, heck, the high school hackers are using that, too. So how do you know it was me? So the trend actually is towards the more widely-available…tools.”

A case in point, though not related to industrial espionage, the
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attacks that crippled hospitals in 2017. Microsoft issued a patch in March, but slow adoption allowed the worst attacks to occur in June.

It’s one big reason Evanina is reaching out to Congress, and to industry, which owns the treasured and the buggy machines that make it vulnerable.

Patching continues to be “problematic,” he said, urging industry leaders to move toward “an enterprise-level solution.”
 
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