Trump or others in the US will probably try to start a hot war with China.
Trade War with China
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Trump or others in the US will probably try to start a hot war with China.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The Chinese market is the prize. The developed markets are already saturated and that's why Japan can afford to strike a free trade deal with the EU. If it were so great, why didn't these historical traditional allies do that long before? Not surprising if the US and EU were to gang up against China because before Trump that's what they were planning to do already when they were alarmed on Made in China 2025. These tariffs, TPP, and anything else they can muster don't have the kind of power they claim to do against China. Why? Because they've already been isolating China shaping trade policy based off their paranoia. That's why China doesn't have a strong presence in those places. Can't lose something you don't have in the first place. The West already knows telecom technology is and will be important for the future. That's why they don't allow these companies to operate in their countries like how they demand their companies be allowed to operate unrestricted in China. In true free trade like Trump and his followers are claiming to believe that has no barriers, cheaper foreign competition would destroy US counterparts. That's why you see the US enact laws and even push their foreign allies to not buy Chinese. National security is just an excuse. The real reason is all displayed with their worries over Made in China 2025. They just don't want China to dominate future technologies. Why are they worried when they can just fallback on their stereotypes that the Chinese can't innovate or invent anything on their own. Yet they are worried. They say those things because they're like men who abuse their wives or girlfriends. Gotta keep their self-esteem low so they don't get ideas that women don't need them and then go on and make something of themselves. Sound familiar?
The only way they can stop China is by committing acts that if committed onto them would be considered acts of war. What Trump has done is show the world, especially allies, is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Who's going to blindly follow the US now?
The only way they can stop China is by committing acts that if committed onto them would be considered acts of war. What Trump has done is show the world, especially allies, is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Who's going to blindly follow the US now?
Skywatcher
Captain
It could very well go the way of that 2 month exemption from the steel and aluminum the EU got.
And Trump cares plenty about cars (his idea of state of the art is still stuck in the 1950s).
Unemployment is not going to go down when interest rates go up and inflation going up. This is a double jeopardy for business. Higher interest rates means higher costs of operating a business. Higher inflation means loss of consumer purchasing power and they buy less, which means less sales for business. Both factors can cause businesses to go under, or lay off employees, which either case people will lose jobs. Wage growth will not go up, and will likely go down, which is the other option from getting fired. When you lose business activity, the economy slows down, and eventually contracts.
Inflation needs to be precisely measured that you only allow as much inflation due to easing monetary supply to power growth. But you go beyond that and currency will weaken, consumers will lose purchasing power.
Fed needs to soak up the Treasuries and mortgages yes, but they are already sitting on 4.4 trillion on it, much of that acquired in the last decade alone since 2007. You have a problem when you have an annual deficit of around a trillion, which can increase if the government revenues drop due to lessened economic activity.
They're saying the trade war can cost the US half a percentage point in economic growth. The US economic growth is 1.6%, so that's like losing a full third.
Russia is smart.
Buying Treasuries keeps US dollar strong, and makes US exports less competitive, while Chinese exports become more competitive. Yes. Plus the US keeps paying China many billions of interest.
But its likely China will release money to its own domestic economy for its own monetary easing to help businesses and boost local consumption. That means less money going elsewhere outside of the country.
That's not Trump policy. That's the current Fed policy, which imposed quantitive tightening for the first time in years since 2007. Fed policy and Trump policy is not the same, as the Fed operates independently from Trump administration, and will do things for the sake of what they believe needs to be done for the country, and not to further Trump's ego.
so you know better than the economists ?.. you should be appointed as Finance Minister as it seems you are the only one who know how the market works
You might think that .. but the reality may hurt you badly
It simply an acceptance of the next:
1. The economics is not a real science, it is closer to the philosophy or to the religious science , with same voodoo maths
2. Due to the above , the economists used mainly as a blunt weapon to serve interest / target of politician .
antiterror13
Brigadier
It shows (again) that you have no clues at all what economic is ....
Mark Twain once said " Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt" .. just an advise to you
To see high inflation (unless same serious distortion in the GINI / market ) the unemployment has to go down, and the wages has to go up. Means the growing interest , that can trigger growing unemployment is a reaction for an out of control situation.
There is no upper limit of the government / fed capacity.
They have no clue. Check the BREXIT predictions.
All of it happens in DOLLARS, not yuan , means the USA control the value of it. And the unbalanced trade means there are serious disortions in the Chinese economy, because big part of it is geared to make stuff for the USA, not for China.
Trump set the direction, and the FED react for the events.
The future actions of the FED defined by Trump actions, not the other way around. Trump doesn't need to "control" the fed, if the unemployment start to growth the FED has to decrease the interest rate.
It shows (again) that you have no clues at all what economic is ....
Mark Twain once said " Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt" .. just an advise to you
Or alternative explanation is I exactly know what the real science is. And the economics is not real science.
No repeatability, not possible to isolate parameters, low amount of sample, and small changes can alter the behaviour of the system unpredictably.
Physics hard on its own, but it is possible to separate parameters,and conduct experiments. That made possible to create very complicated theories based on evidences, and falsify / prove them.
Even the global warming has weak proof for anything , but it looks massively solid compared to the economics .
Exactly. Nixon cut the gold backed international trade, and that caused deep shock in the US economy. They DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THE EFFECT OF IT.
Practically they created a huge employment shock by opening up to unlimited / unrestricted trade the US economy, and it hasn't recovered from it since.
C'mon, the direct effect of Nixon decision was the cancellation of all nuclear power plant project, and replacement of them with cheap saudi oil.
What do you think, what was the effect of it on the wages/employment ?
Nixon in 1971 had to choose between the US empire and the interest of the US citizens . He choose the former.
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