Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
It would be beneficial to both PRC and ROC to avoid a war the scale of which will either end in PRC defeat and subsequent embarrassment (which would be far worse than losing some ground in economic terms as a very temporary situation) or result in the successful invasion and capture of Taiwan (I say invasion because pretty much everyone will see it as such due to Taiwan not wanting to be part of PRC). CPC has survived far worse.

Even losing a large chunk of short term profits (until Trumps decisions are reversed after so-called superior democratic elections and limited time in office) is far more preferable than going into war as an aggressor. Hardly anyone in the world will be on China's side and will not consider trade war to be justification for violent reactions even if it is! This would be a great way to lose the political favour PRC has been carefully and slowly gaining in the non-western world even if it were to win Taiwan. The "we're the best F the rest" attitude imperial China had in the past won't do it much good in this century unless CPC is prepared to supply Russian levels of well strategised propaganda... how successful international Chinese propaganda will work on the western world is questionable at best (Russians are using the "we're your white christian brothers also against immigrants and liberal policies" to decent success at least on the low end of the intellectual spectrum). Slowly but surely showing everyone the benefits of non-conformity to Washington's rules is a superior path.

I don't think you understand what this trade war is all about.

It won't be some economic losses.

Trump and his team want to structural change to China system,. thats why they started this trade war. Its like a blackmail. They won't accept China current economic concessions.
if it does inflict maximum damages, and causing political instability, then CPC will have nothing to lose and everything to gain by retake taiwan.


Again, let me repeat, this is last resort, CPC will wait for economic crisis and political instability then they will strike... do you think they still mind being called aggressor or worrying about their reputation at that point when their survival is at stake. Come one now.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well that's where we disagree. I don't think it will ever come to a position for China where it has nothing to lose. You're saying at least 4 decades of solid progress can all be undone by the feeble half-arsed actions of one US political leadership that will only be in power for another 3 years. I suppose we will see how dramatic it actually gets but right now, nothing is really shaking the boat at all.

BTW sparing the lives of innocent Chinese and Taiwanese people is still something to be gained if war can be avoided. It's only a case of ROC aggression towards mainland or direct ROC actions that can be considered aggressive, where war could be justified. Saying screw this and going all out from losing some profits is carrying a very short term view of what PRC intends for the "Chinese civilisation". And it will only ever come to being losing profits. US trade war in whatever scale will never hurt China's economy to the degree where they become forced back into the stone age or whatever primitive society people with a hard-on against China love to imagine. Sure it'll hurt a bit but it's really nothing. Russia and Venezuela have been softer targets because of their dependence on single points of failure, among other factors. China is a different problem to dismantle for the US. They'd find better success buying Chinese out and corrupting them from the inside.
 
Last edited:
Well that's where we disagree. I don't think it will ever come to a position for China where it has nothing to lose. You're saying at least 4 decades of solid progress can all be undone by the feeble half-arsed actions of one US political leadership that will only be in power for another 3 years. I suppose we will see how dramatic it actually gets but right now, nothing is really shaking the boat at all.

BTW sparing the lives of innocent Chinese and Taiwanese people is still something to be gained if war can be avoided. It's only a case of ROC aggression towards mainland or direct ROC actions that can be considered aggressive, where war could be justified. Saying screw this and going all out from losing some profits is carrying a very short term view of what PRC intends for the "Chinese civilisation". And it will only ever come to being losing profits. US trade war in whatever scale will never hurt China's economy to the degree where they become forced back into the stone age or whatever primitive society people with a hard-on against China love to imagine. Sure it'll hurt a bit but it's really nothing. Russia and Venezuela have been softer targets because of their dependence on single points of failure, among other factors. China is a different problem to dismantle for the US. They'd find better success buying Chinese out and corrupting them from the inside.
ougoah
I've read about Taiwanese strategies (it's in fact a very interesting problem of 'how to defend indefensible') and how they were changing, but I don't think invading the continent was one of them LOL!

either way talking war between ROC and PRC should be avoided here (over the years I repeatedly saw people with hard feelings came and the result was a fight)

(I admit in the past I posted something about hedgehog etc. myself, but for me it's armchair-generalling only; yes, I mean an entertainment)
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well that's where we disagree. I don't think it will ever come to a position for China where it has nothing to lose. You're saying at least 4 decades of solid progress can all be undone by the feeble half-arsed actions of one US political leadership that will only be in power for another 3 years. I suppose we will see how dramatic it actually gets but right now, nothing is really shaking the boat at all.

BTW sparing the lives of innocent Chinese and Taiwanese people is still something to be gained if war can be avoided. It's only a case of ROC aggression towards mainland or direct ROC actions that can be considered aggressive, where war could be justified. Saying screw this and going all out from losing some profits is carrying a very short term view of what PRC intends for the "Chinese civilisation". And it will only ever come to being losing profits. US trade war in whatever scale will never hurt China's economy to the degree where they become forced back into the stone age or whatever primitive society people with a hard-on against China love to imagine. Sure it'll hurt a bit but it's really nothing. Russia and Venezuela have been softer targets because of their dependence on single points of failure, among other factors. China is a different problem to dismantle for the US. They'd find better success buying Chinese out and corrupting them from the inside.


have you paid attention to China economic problem recently.
Stock market entering bear territory with 25% loss , real estate bubble ready to pop, and huge central and local government debts ready to implode.
This trump induced trade war couldn't come at a worst time!

Yes, it might threaten CPC survival !. When that time comes, anything goes! including Taiwan!

I want to see business and economic guy like trump and navarro deal with that!
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well I didn't say they would, only that an ROC attack on PRC would totally justify defense of the mainland and then taking Taiwan by force afterwards because they instigated the aggression.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
have you paid attention to China economic problem recently.
Stock market entering bear territory with 25% loss , real estate bubble ready to pop, and huge central and local government debts ready to implode.
This trump induced trade war couldn't come at a worst time!

Yes, it might threaten CPC survival !. When that time comes, anything goes! including Taiwan!

I want to see business and economic guy like trump and navarro deal with that!

25% wiped from the markets?? No I did not hear that. Over what time period did this happen? Real estate bubble there ought to pop. How it pops is uncertain. US is built on debt as well. Chinese can finance their levels just fine if the Americans can. Let's not forget the huge yet unrealised potential and productivity. There's room for all of these things to come and go. I really doubt CPC survival is on the cards here. Not even close. This line has been talked about since the start of the CPC.... its collapse has been broadcasted to be imminent and around the corner for over 50 years. These idiots have been wrong for over 50 years. What makes them right this time? CPC survived FAR worse. This is about as big as a snowflake on the tip of an iceberg no matter how big they play the threat up. If it does come to a territory where CPC decides to elevate their responses, it will not involve invading Taiwan. They have far more better cards to play at this point in time. Assisting Iran in nuclear technologies is one example. Do the US really want to play this game to the very bottom? Maybe it's actually their agenda and pieces are all falling into place. Deep state and all conspiracies aside, CPC's survival is at least at the same level as any random nation if not far more secure.
 
25% wiped from the markets?? No I did not hear that. ...
yeah made me check:
Clipboard485.jpg


the dip would be 15% (fifteen percent) max even if related to what
tidalwave
said
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
EU ready to put tariffs worth $300 billion if Trump targets European automakers. This is scaling things up a bit.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



Trump's tariffs makes it hard to rebuild US infrastructure. Even if US infrastructure requires that you use US steel to manufacture, tariffs on foreign steel has caused US steel prices to go up, as US steelmakers attempt to boost profits.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top