Trade War with China

Ministers from 16 Asian and Pacific countries meet to create the world's largest trading bloc. This includes Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, New Zealand, Brunei, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar. I can expect the list to grow.




What we are seeing now is the beginning of the De-Americanization of the world.

Jura said:

would you summarize
谢谢

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commentators are Chinese professors in US.
Their opinions are Chinese economic options are limited but China is organized the whole world against US, but their said there's a difference.
Among US and its allies disputes is number in tariff but with China, US treats it as an economic invaders, and determines to change China structure. No economic concessions are enough for trump.

this trade war comes at a critical time as China transitioning its economy. Also promoting yuan based on the forex earned,.

If China loses this trade war, there will big political consequences for Xi.

I agree with them China economic options are limited, and it needs geopolitcal tools to deal with Trump and Navarro.

The keyword being talked about trade now is "diversification." In other words, a trade world without the US. Countries will now begin to spin tree trade deals with each other excluding the US.



South Korea acts on diversification after trade minister expresses frustration on talks with the US. And this is how South Korea diversified.





Free Trade negotiations.



And seeking to realign North East Asian trade.



Canada diversifies.

tidalwave said:

have you paid attention to China economic problem recently.
Stock market entering bear territory with 25% loss , real estate bubble ready to pop, and huge central and local government debts ready to implode.
This trump induced trade war couldn't come at a worst time!

Yes, it might threaten CPC survival !. When that time comes, anything goes! including Taiwan!

I want to see business and economic guy like trump and navarro deal with that!

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I've never shied away from saying that the ROC needs to be reunited with the PRC by force if necessary but start a hot war for this??!! (I'd rather invade the ROC for semiconductor tech than this!) Man you're crazy! This is the best situation right now for China. China's stock market is a joke; it's not important. The world is losing trust in the USA and rebalancing towards each other and China. Trump is willfully abandoning America's leadership position, something that would have taken China decades to achieve. Do you know what the situation would be like now if it wasn't for Trump? Under any semi-competent US president, there would be a USA-EU alliance right now joined by the cartoonishly henchmen-like Japan and India to try to choke off China's MIC2025. Instead, now, we see a situation where everyone is sighing contracts with China and diversifying away from the US, which is good for China's Belt and Road, and good for MIC2025. The worst estimate for this trade war on China's economy is to shave off 0.3-0.5% on growth, leaving China's 2018 numbers still above 6%. Meanwhile, this might cause the US to go into full-blown recession and you want to interrupt Trump as he's bungling into this??

You're making a mistake that is commonly made by Trump's supporters, and that's to assume that aggressive actions always inflict more damage to your target than to yourself and that the loudest, most confident-sounding person always knows what he's doing.

CCP survival?? You've been reading only US media, haven't you? The CCP is massively popular and enjoys far more support than the US government now and everyone in China will see any discomfort that they encounter as caused by adversary aggression, NOT CCP mismanagement. Chinese citizens will double down to support their government through this; the CCP has never been more stable.

I'm not Christian or religious by any means, but I PRAY that Trump gets re-elected in 2020 and then I PRAY that the next POTUS is his idiot son, whom when interviewed on whether or not he colluded with a Russian agent visiting him at Trump Tower, answered that he wanted to collude but she didn't have any valuable information at the time. THAT GUY! LOL

tidalwave said:

commentators are Chinese professors in US.
Their opinions are ...

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... relevant?

tidalwave displays the EXACT kind of cynicism that I pointed out a few pages ago. Too many people in China continue to buy into the narrative that "massive" debt and the real estate "bubble" will inevitably collapse China's economy. Gordon Chang would be proud.

I completely agree with Equation and Ichmer Taiwan will be reunited someday But as long as they don't provocatively declare De Jure independent or invite American marine They should be left alone
Actually China has anti secessionist law that spell out exactly the condition that will trigger China invasion It is still in the book and it is law

As it is now Taiwan outside China is more benificial than inside China Did anyone read my post about how China gain access to Micron memory design and fabrication process thru Taiwan engineer who work for lint venture between Taiwan company and Micron? then bolted out and defect to China bringing with him all the memory design ?
It is classic example how Taiwan is the conduit of high technology specially semi conductor technology to China

Million of Taiwanese and thousand of their best company now work in China strengthening the industrial base Not to mention billion in investment and marketing skill
Why you want to kill the golden goose that lay the golden eggs and had headache like Hongkong?

Taiwan semiconductor industry make large investment in China TSMC has huge factory in China

Long time ago LKY has a conversation with Deng and he said leave them alone why you want to reduce a thriving economy to be come another poor island That was in 80's when China is still poor of course we know since Taiwan stagnate and China prosper


It provides further proof that TSMC is a semiconductor leader in terms of technology, capacity and client services, he added.

TSMC’s capitalization has continued to rise, jumping to a record-breaking US$180 billion, up more than 30 percent from US$136 billion on July 7 last year, Chang said.

“TSMC Nanjing will greatly help elevate China’s foundry capabilities,” Chang said. “With our extensive ecosystem in [chip] design, we will help boost Chinese semiconductor designers’ growth as well.”

In the second quarter of this year, China accounted for 11 percent of the firm’s total revenue of NT$213.86 billion (US$7.12 billion), surpassing Japan’s 8 percent and Europe’s 7 percent, a TSMC financial report showed.

The chipmaker has a broad customer base that includes China’s Hisilicon Technologies Co (海思半導體), which is owned by Huawei Technologies Co (華為), and Spreadtrum Communications Co (展訊通信), as well as mobile phone chip designer MediaTek Inc (聯發科), which focuses on the Chinese market.

Icmer said:

tidalwave displays the EXACT kind of cynicism that I pointed out a few pages ago. Too many people in China continue to buy into the narrative that "massive" debt and the real estate "bubble" will inevitably collapse China's economy. Gordon Chang would be proud.

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You forgot the draw that breaks the camel's back. The trade war if intensified would target $450 billion worth of Chinese goods that have a severe effect no matter you spin it.
You also forgot the fear factor as evidented by large loss from China stock market.

So, everything combined, that effect is legit, not just some Gordon Chang BS

So, China has to look for other ways

tidalwave said:

You forgot the draw that breaks the camel's back. The trade war if intensified would target $450 billion worth of Chinese goods that have a severe effect no matter you spin it.
You also forgot the fear factor as evidented by large loss from China stock market.

So, everything combined, that effect is legit, not just some Gordon Chang BS

So, China has to look for other ways

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"$450 billion worth of Chinese goods that have a severe effect no matter you spin it"

A small percentage of total Chinese exports and GDP. Trump also promised not to target high-value electronics such as iPhones. The latest round of a proposed $200 billion in tariffs has been knocked down to 10%. This indicates that he is running out of Chinese imports to confidently slap tariffs on without massively hurting the American consumer.

"fear factor" and "large loss from China stock market"

Short-term volatility. Overreaction from individual investors (who comprise the majority of market traders in China unlike the US stock market, which is dominated by large financial institutions). In addition the Chinese stock market is hardly reflective of the national economy.

Still, Jiang says over a longer investment horizon, she’s more optimistic.

"It’s not that we are bearish about China,” Jiang said. “It’s a tactical position, as we expect the market to remain volatile in the near term," she said. With projected profit growth in the “mid-teen” percentage level at mainland firms this year, “China is still the most important earnings per share driver for emerging markets. So we are still positive."

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tidalwave said:

You forgot the draw that breaks the camel's back. The trade war if intensified would target $450 billion worth of Chinese goods that have a severe effect no matter you spin it.
You also forgot the fear factor as evidented by large loss from China stock market.

So, everything combined, that effect is legit, not just some Gordon Chang BS

So, China has to look for other ways

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$450 billion?!! Ohhhh such a big number!! So Scary!! China's gonna lose $450 billion cus Trump said so?! LOLOL No. $450 billion is the value of the imports that are going to be tariffed at 10%. Everybody was doing 25% and then suddenly Trump drops to 10%. Why? If he wants American consumers to stop buying these Chinese products, why not 25%? Oh, that's right, because the nearest alternative is like double the price so when he taxes Americans for 10% (remember he's not taxing China; he's taxing his own citizens), they have to pay the extra 10% and buy them anyway. If he did 25% like he wanted to, they STILL have to buy it except then, they'll notice a very steep increase in their cost of living and might vote him out of office. At 10%, he figures they'll likely confuse it with inflation while others might be able to cope. Then, on top of that, take a look at the percentage of China's GDP that is dependent on exports. Adjust that to the fact that the US comprises less than a fifth of that number. Take into account all the new deals that China is striking with the US allies that Trump insulted, and what numbers do we have? You'll have to do the calculations before calling it a "severe effect" but most economists put the total to a 0.3-0.5% loss in GDP growth for China, at worst.

Stock market! Ohh. Ouch. 15% drop so painful! Except... 2 years ago, it just dropped 40% from 5,000+ to 3000+ and didn't do shit to China's economy LOL. Doesn't hurt; keep punching heh heh

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the US is currently in a curse out/trade war with nearly all economically-relevant allies and has even somehow managed to turn Canada into a staunch adversary (in a very personal way, on top of it). Trump's team is now attempting to convince the American public that trade, in general, is overrated and the US can do without it, indicating they're really ready to set the US back to a time before countries knew that other countries existed. LOL And in addition to leaving some other leading global institutions (that the US used to champion) in areas such as climate change and human rights, Trump is literally threatening to rage-quit the WTO right now! Hahahaha I am at a loss for words. If they put a robot POTUS into office in 2016 and handed me the remote control, I could not have done this much damage. LOL

Don't worry about China, baby, watch her economy hum along like a well-oiled machine as always and realize Made in China 2025 (much easier if Trump is still there till 2024).