The War in the Ukraine

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
pmc said:
Eastern Ukraine agriculture land, mines, power station is worth much more than any other country beside Russia.
I said German led system. not necessary residing in Germany like real German. it will take some time for people to understand the cost of living in this kind of system going forward.
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I expect the power stations and mines have largely been destroyed.
In any case, the transport network has been destroyed, so how can minerals be sent out?
And where are the power stations getting their fuel? And who are they selling their electricity to? Russia has enough power plants of its own, and Ukraine is not buying electricity.
Also remember that agriculture accounts for about 1% of any modern economy.

And I don't understand what you mean by "understand the cost of living in this kind of (German) system"

RedMetalSeadramon said:
Eastern Ukraine was Ukraine's most industrialized and populous region before the war, backed up by its coal reserves and steel works. Wages cannot remain high in Germany if commodity prices remains high, unless it wished to become a service only economy overnight. In a overall peace scenario, as long as Russia absorbs Ukraine its in an advantage.
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The coal mines and steel works have been destroyed.
Given their location, I don't expect the steel works to ever be rebuilt.
And who will buy that steel given that the Donbass will remain sanctioned.

Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.

Look at the economies of the Donbass and Crimea after Russia absorbed them in 2014. And these regions were largely taken intact without too much fighting.
Yet they are still an economic drag on Russia because of the sanctions imposed.

Black Shark said:
You are confusing citizenship with ethnicity. There is historically no ukrainian ethnicity and was only invented like it's pseudo-statehood in the 20th century. They are all russians and the treatment they receive will depend on their willingness or unwillingness to cooperate.
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The fact remains that since 2014, the Ukrainian state has solidified the idea of a separate Ukrainian identity which rejects Russian identity.
And that this Ukrainian state is being supplied and supported with enough weapons that they can continue to resist.


Black Shark said:
The chance the Kokaina had at the start of the operation to capitulate has been wasted by Kiev's Junta regime and only a naive fool would today believe that Kokaina will exist in the next 5-10 years. They ridicouled every attempt of negotionations by perposterous attempts to play big d*ck on the demand of the US to purposefully sabotage the negotiations to prolong the attrition war against Russia. The West hoped for a lot bigger impact of Kokaina on Russia's military. If mere armschair generals here can see that this will not work then don't make the foolish assessment, that the elites of this policy do not get a grasp of reality. Only the figureheads, actors, that the western world put as their leaders believe the garbage they are spewing. The administration, think tanks, elites of every clan and family who run these countries know that.
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Well, I think Zelensky failed spectacularly in the runup to the war.

If the US government is telling you that Putin is serious about a war, and you can see over 100,000 Russian troops deployed on your borders, the sensible move is to take such a threat seriously rather than continue to poke the bear.

Black Shark said:
I' have never said Russia would need to invade Poland, Czechia or Germany, they will get a visit from good old Khinzals, Calibr and other technologies used as punishment and taste of reality.
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The estimate is that Russia has already used up 70% of its pre-war precision guided munitions in Ukraine.
Russia would be foolish to voluntarily extend the conflict to Poland, Czechia or Germany - given that the US arsenal of long-range PGMs is vastly larger.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
I think Russia could have succeeded to a far greater degree if the units had been able to deploy with their full complement of infantry conscripts.

But they ended up sending in tanks into cities without sufficient infantry to take ground. At the same time, the supply and maintenance personnel are disproportionately composed of conscripts, which meant large difficulties with resupply, along with maintaining and repairing vehicles.
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Sending in tanks ahead of infantry was stupid, no evidence that happened because there was a lack of infantry.

AndrewS said:
Raqqa, Mariupol and Severodonetsk-Lisichansk are all small cities.

Kharkiv by itself is larger than all these cities combined, and far more difficult to isolate and surround.
Plus there are large cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia which control some of the few crossings on the Donbass, so you can't avoid them.
Territorial defence units should still be able to hold these cities for months/years.
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Kharkiv will be difficult as it's an ethnic Russian city. I imagine that's why there's been little effort to retake it.

Russia's objective is not to take territory right now but to eliminate the Ukrainian military threat. Once there are no more soldiers left it'll be easy to take cities like Kharkov, Kiev .
AndrewS said:
Remember that the Ukrainians will continue to be fed enough weapons and supplies to keep resisting.
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Resist = voluntarily walk into a meat grinder designed to kill them. Russia should be encouraging this as much as possible. Not only is it denazifying Ukraine, it is also demilitarising NATO. It'll make managing the country much easier once the war is over, and open up the prospect of further expansion.
AndrewS said:
What is there for Russia to absorb in Eastern Ukraine? Everything is in ruins and it's not much population actually. We're now seeing estimates of up to $1.1 trillion for rebuilding Ukraine.

Plus wages and the standard of living in Germany will remain far higher than in Russia, even with higher inflation in Germany.
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Most of the infrastructure in the Ukraine needed rebuilding anyway.

It may cost the west to rebuild the Ukraine $1.1 trillion, but that's because of the same corruption that meant a single gas station in Afghanistan cost $45 million. It won't cost anything near that, and will be paid for within a few years by the resources gained.

Russia will have a massive labour force of POWs to rebuild the parts of the Ukraine it wants to keep.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
I think Russia could have succeeded to a far greater degree if the units had been able to deploy with their full complement of infantry conscripts.

But they ended up sending in tanks into cities without sufficient infantry to take ground. At the same time, the supply and maintenance personnel are disproportionately composed of conscripts, which meant large difficulties with resupply, along with maintaining and repairing vehicles.



Raqqa, Mariupol and Severodonetsk-Lisichansk are all small cities.

Kharkiv by itself is larger than all these cities combined, and far more difficult to isolate and surround.
Plus there are large cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia which control some of the few crossings on the Donbass, so you can't avoid them.
Territorial defence units should still be able to hold these cities for months/years.

Remember that the Ukrainians will continue to be fed enough weapons and supplies to keep resisting.
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Advancement rates aren't linear. If they were, you'd have assumed Japan would've conquered all of China by 1939 or alternatively that the secular Afghan government would've been able to hold on for years like it did in the 90s with socialist Afghanistan.

Sometimes resistance stiffens or collapses instead. so you have to look at the trend. Mariupol: months. Severodonetsk: multi-weeks. Lysychansk: a week.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Zichan said:
Some very influential people in US politics have long held the position that Ukraine is a so called pivot state. If they dislodge it from the Russian sphere of influence, Russia will cease to be an Eurasian power and will be downgraded to a largely Asian power.
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It is that kind of retarded thinking which got us into this mess in the first place. They should have kept the former Soviet Union nations as neutral nations like what was done in Scandinavia. Putting them under direct control of NATO would only necessarily leave to escalation. NATO is no defensive alliance as can be seen with regards to Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Libya. The correct way would have been to either have a buffer between both sides or agree to conventional arms limitations like Russia proposed in 2007. That was only not possible because the US wants to gobble up Russia as well.

AndrewS said:
What is there for Russia to absorb in Eastern Ukraine? Everything is in ruins and it's not much population actually. We're now seeing estimates of up to $1.1 trillion for rebuilding Ukraine.

Plus wages and the standard of living in Germany will remain far higher than in Russia, even with higher inflation in Germany.
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Russia will be moving its borders to more defensible positions in either the Dnieper or perhaps as far as the Carpathian mountains.
And a large well armed army in direct opposition to it, largest in mainland Europe at this point, has been destroyed. Russia will keep destroying these armies until they stop existing along their borders. Unfortunately a lot of people in the West still do not realize that Russia has supremacy in nuclear weapons and pretty soon they will have it in missile defense too. Once Nudol or S-500 are operational around St. Petersburg and Moscow. These modern ABM systems are already in service and started mass production like late last year. The situation is reversed from the mid stages of the Cold War.

AndrewS said:
The coal mines and steel works have been destroyed.
Given their location, I don't expect the steel works to ever be rebuilt.
And who will buy that steel given that the Donbass will remain sanctioned.
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It won't be going West anymore that is for sure. Negation of resources by itself is important in a war like this.

AndrewS said:
Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
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Germany won't be a manufacturing economy for long with high energy prices. You just need to look at Italy as an example. I give it a decade at best. As is the glass factories and steel works are already closing down. Fertilizer factories will go the same way. Oh they will say they have fertilizer factories, but they will be making ammonium nitrate fertilizer from liquid ammonia imported from the Middle East or North Africa instead of making it from natural gas. i.e. they will just be making the low energy intensity final process and putting it into bags. The German car factories will assemble cars with steel parts cast elsewhere, maybe in Turkey, and the lithium carbonate in the batteries will likely continue to come from China or perhaps some American country as alternative.

AndrewS said:
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.
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The idea you can have 447 million people, the population of the EU, live on making luxury goods and providing tourism services is sheer lunacy. The EU is not Switzerland. And even Switzerland has some industry powered by their hydropower and nuclear power plants.

AndrewS said:
Look at the economies of the Donbass and Crimea after Russia absorbed them in 2014. And these regions were largely taken intact without too much fighting.
Yet they are still an economic drag on Russia because of the sanctions imposed.
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Russia can easily absorb the cost of their reconstruction. They have no shortage of steel, concrete, and glass. And about Ukrainians fleeing towards Germany, they have been doing that since 1991. So nothing changed.
 
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Nemesis

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Stealthflanker said:
and still no real numbers to back on this.
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It's part of the propaganda rhetoric. They throw statistics in our faces without being able to justify them. As multiple media play the same little song, gullible uncritical people end up repeating the same song. How many times have these so-called experts announced the exhaustion of Russian missiles as they continue to rain down on Ukraine? The Real always ends up invalidating this cheap propaganda.
 
2handedswordsman

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Also remember that agriculture accounts for about 1% of any modern economy.
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Account has a subjective meaning. Tarrifs that have terrible backfire were also well acounted. You also understimate agriculture. Nestle and Mcdonalds are bussinesses based on agriculture. Adidas and Nike are based in agriculture. It's not all about traktors and vegetables
 
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