The War in the Ukraine

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia can easily absorb the cost of their reconstruction. They have no shortage of steel, concrete, and glass.

But there's no point in rebuilding.
Even if you rebuild, I expect most people aren't coming back as there are no jobs due to sanctions.

And remember that the Russian economy is suffering as it contracting this year and likely next year as well.
Then it should stabilise and start recovering.

That's very funny. How do you know? You make assertions without being able to substantiate them. In a real essay, you would have a nice zero! You're actually repeating the ambient propaganda...

You can see it from how the Russian military is acting.

There are so many juicy targets that should be hit, if Russia had enough long-range PGMs to do the job.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
It is obvious that Russia is running low on PGMs of all sorts.
But that is to be expected of any country which is in a full scale war that lasts for more than a few weeks.
It will just give you one datum. Kinzhal is basically an air launched version of Iskander. So you would imagine the possible production rate for both is pretty similar or proportional if it was demanded to be so. Russia has been firing like two to four Iskanders a day. They fired less than a dozen Kinzhals since the conflict started. So how many Kinzhals do you think they have left? I would say enough to hit all NATO airbases and command centers in Europe.

The Russians have been using all their Kh-22 missiles because they have been obsoleted by Kh-32 and Kinzhal basically. The air launch platform and applications are exact same and specs are worse. I will also note to you that thus far we have had zero evidence of Russia using the Kh-58 missile. In fact it has been conspicuous by its absence. So the Russians have whole weapon systems they either poorly used or have not used at all. These are clearly being kept in reserve.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
As if a countries missile or PGM is a fixed number and factories can't keep producing them. Next you'll be saying that Russian missiles need Ukrainian washing machines for components.

Anyway Russia clearly has been stockpiling missiles and heavy weaponry, something that western intelligence failed to pick up on despite their multi billion dollar budgets.
 

RedMetalSeadramon

Junior Member
Registered Member
The coal mines and steel works have been destroyed.
Given their location, I don't expect the steel works to ever be rebuilt.
And who will buy that steel given that the Donbass will remain sanctioned.

Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.

Look at the economies of the Donbass and Crimea after Russia absorbed them in 2014. And these regions were largely taken intact without too much fighting.
Yet they are still an economic drag on Russia because of the sanctions imposed.
Germany cannot absorb higher commodity prices precisely because it has high wages. The ability of industry to remain competitive is very dependent on commodity prices, high prices has a significant effect on scale production, which affects everything down the line.

This masturbatory attitude towards sanctions is intellectually perverse. Sanctions are double edge as exemplified by commodity prices, its also less effective as time goes on, while acquired territories becomes more valuable as consolidation progresses. Trading sanctions for territories is literally the worse decision you would make.
 

Nemesis

Just Hatched
Registered Member
You can see it from how the Russian military is acting.
Plus there are so many juicy targets that should be hit, if Russia had enough long-range PGMs to do the job.
Every day dozens of targets are hit by Kalibr and other precision missiles lol. I don't know what world you live in! Above all, you have a rather stupid rhetoric. Claim without evidence as a sectarian cult leader lol

As if a countries missile or PGM is a fixed number and factories can't keep producing them. Next you'll be saying that Russian missiles need Ukrainian washing machines for components.

Anyway Russia clearly has been stockpiling missiles and heavy weaponry, something that western intelligence failed to pick up on despite their multi billion dollar budgets.
Of course, arms factories are running 24 hours a day. A fact that the very funny "Andrew" seems to ignore. Missiles are falling every day in Ukraine!
 

FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Summary of the article:
  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing serious communication problems.
  • As the New York Times reports, such problems are "highly costly" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  • Unit commanders have to communicate with fighters through "messengers"
  • Communication systems are also regularly jammed by Russian electronic warfare systems
  • The lack of communication systems leads to the fact that Ukrainian units often engage in battle with each other
  • There are cases when Ukrainian soldiers died from the fire of their own artillery
  • Deliveries through NATO do not cover the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in basic things, and Ukraine itself is unlikely to be able to do this.
The mainstream media is already changing the narrative. They are preparing the western audience for the eventual defeat of Ukraine. It doesn’t matter how many weapons the west keeps sending. They get destroyed in the battlefield and there is a major shortage of quality Ukrainian soldiers. They are depending on territorial defense conscripts with three weeks of training to plug in the gaps.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Germany cannot absorb higher commodity prices precisely because it has high wages. The ability of industry to remain competitive is very dependent on commodity prices, high prices has a significant effect on scale production, which affects everything down the line.

When you produce more sophisticated products (like the Germans), most of the product cost breakdown is not due to the cost of the commodities. Yes, there is an impact with higher commodities costs, but it's manageable and everyone else is facing the same commodity costs as well.

This masturbatory attitude towards sanctions is intellectually perverse. Sanctions are double edge as exemplified by commodity prices, its also less effective as time goes on, while acquired territories becomes more valuable as consolidation progresses. Trading sanctions for territories is literally the worse decision you would make.

I agree the sanctions on Russia haven't worked and that further sanctions will definitely be counterproductive.
But as long as the sanctions remain in place (and I don't see them being lifted), then those acquired territories have very little value as they can't produce and sell onwards.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Well, I think Zelensky failed spectacularly in the runup to the war.

If the US government is telling you that Putin is serious about a war, and you can see over 100,000 Russian troops deployed on your borders, the sensible move is to take such a threat seriously rather than continue to poke the bear.
Because the US "prediction" was a load of bs, they predicted something and then they forced it to happen by shelling civilians and threatening a full scale attack on the separatist areas. It's like Hitler in ww2 proclaiming that Germany is about to get attacked by the Allies... After they struck first on Poland. Of course your "prediction" is correct when you knew the other side's red lines and still attacked.

Without Zelensky sabre rattling, there would be no war. And without US ordering it, there would be no sabre rattling from Zelensky. And if Zelensky refuses to follow orders, what do you think would happen to him and his family?

America's plan was simple, they ordered all state connected media to blast "news" about a Russian attack, therefore giving the Ukrainians ability to do whatever atrocities they want and gain ground without Russia retaliating, because they thought Russia would be scared of falling into their "prediction". This approach is typical of USA salami slicing strategy.

But Putin had his own plot which was meant for a situation like this.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Every day dozens of targets are hit by Kalibr and other precision missiles lol. I don't know what world you live in! Above all, you have a rather stupid rhetoric. Claim without evidence as a sectarian cult leader lol


Of course, arms factories are running 24 hours a day. A fact that the very funny "Andrew" seems to ignore. Missiles are falling every day in Ukraine!

The number of Russian PGMs being launched is nowhere near enough.

I would guess a bare minimum of 50,000 fixed aimpoints that are worth some sort of PGM.
Russia has only launched 2000 long-range missiles to-date, and there might be a few thousand more shorter-ranged PGMs launched from Russian tactical aircraft.

We're now seeing Russian aircraft and helicopters routinely using unguided munitions when PGMs would be a way better option
 
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