Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.
If Putin decides to cut off gas to Germany on July 1:
The suspension of Russian gas means losses in the first six months of 193 billion euros for Germany
A sudden cut in gas supplies from Russia would lead to a 12.5% decline in the German economy, and 5.6 million people would lose their jobs.
This is the result of a study presented by the Bavarian Business Association on Tuesday. "The federal government has already announced the level of gas alarm," said Bertram Brosart, managing director of the association. "Russia's actions remain unpredictable."
The calculations made by Prognos AG, an economic analysis company, are based on the suspension of gas supplies from 1 July.
"The dependence of the German economy on Russian gas is underestimated," said Michael Boehmer of Prognos AG.
The consequences would be:
► Sectors directly affected, including the glass industry, steel processing and the food industry. These sectors will have to bear a loss of 49 billion euros. This corresponds to 3.2 percent of total value added in Germany.
► Losses would affect production and supply chains in other industries. Losses of 144 billion euros are expected in the second half of 2022, a drop of 9.4 percent.
► Together, this leads to losses of € 193 billion over six months.
► 5.6 million people will lose their jobs
Boehmer: "Germany will fall into a deep recession."