The War in the Ukraine

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Such limitless resources can only be countered using effective weapons with a fundamentally different approach - precision targeting."
No shit sherlock. It would mitigate the problem of logistics that Ukraine is having. The problem is the US can't manufacture those cheaply. Try checking out the price of an Excalibur GPS round. So of course the US isn't sending any. You are lucky enough to be getting GPS guided MLRS rounds.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
It has been a while since The Copium Zone put a massive cope article in a while, but here we are. Apparently Russia not having enough operational subs, somehow is an Ukranian victory

Now we know who revived the "Russia is running out of missiles" narrative, also.

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Kh-22 footage. Personally, I think it is Kh-32.


If it is a Kh-22, that's a 1ton warhead crashing into the place at Mach 4. Could have just probably destroyed the place on kinetic energy alone
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
I expect the power stations and mines have largely been destroyed.
In any case, the transport network has been destroyed, so how can minerals be sent out?
And where are the power stations getting their fuel? And who are they selling their electricity to? Russia has enough power plants of its own, and Ukraine is not buying electricity.
Also remember that agriculture accounts for about 1% of any modern economy.

And I don't understand what you mean by "understand the cost of living in this kind of (German) system"
Major cities like Melitopol, Kherson and even Mariupol has electricity. where do you think biggest Nuclear plant and thermal plants operating?. only old industrial areas are destroyed. they will be rebuild or may be rebuild to some thing different.
but these are minor things in overall context. it is integration of water and Agriculture of Ukraine and Crimea thats the prize.
Ukraine used to export $80b a year exports mostly Agriculture/Minerals. that value is before the rise of Grain prices to current level. Now with larger investment and land area of Crimea included the value of Agriculture will multiply.
why you think Agriculture is 1% modern of economy?.
you may want to look closely to Europe / Turkey to understand the cost of living now when they are in German system and those countries had opportunity to develop in low cost environment with massive investment from Persian Gulf.
this person was worth $4b early 80s and he not consider Royal.
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The coal mines and steel works have been destroyed.
Given their location, I don't expect the steel works to ever be rebuilt.
And who will buy that steel given that the Donbass will remain sanctioned.
I think Russia has enough clout to sell anything.
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Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.

Look at the economies of the Donbass and Crimea after Russia absorbed them in 2014. And these regions were largely taken intact without too much fighting.
Yet they are still an economic drag on Russia because of the sanctions imposed.
Germany can absorb high commodity prices but it does not mean German vassals can absorb it.
Crimea has world class infrastructure now and that is before the abundance of water at right time that can create agro industry. construction still going.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Germany can absorb higher commodity prices as it is a manufacturing economy with high wages.
Yes, the cost of those goods and services will get more expensive, but an increase of say $200 per month is manageable.
If Putin decides to cut off gas to Germany on July 1:

The suspension of Russian gas means losses in the first six months of 193 billion euros for Germany

A sudden cut in gas supplies from Russia would lead to a 12.5% decline in the German economy, and 5.6 million people would lose their jobs.

This is the result of a study presented by the Bavarian Business Association on Tuesday. "The federal government has already announced the level of gas alarm," said Bertram Brosart, managing director of the association. "Russia's actions remain unpredictable."

The calculations made by Prognos AG, an economic analysis company, are based on the suspension of gas supplies from 1 July.

"The dependence of the German economy on Russian gas is underestimated," said Michael Boehmer of Prognos AG.

The consequences would be:

► Sectors directly affected, including the glass industry, steel processing and the food industry. These sectors will have to bear a loss of 49 billion euros. This corresponds to 3.2 percent of total value added in Germany.

► Losses would affect production and supply chains in other industries. Losses of 144 billion euros are expected in the second half of 2022, a drop of 9.4 percent.

► Together, this leads to losses of € 193 billion over six months.

► 5.6 million people will lose their jobs

Boehmer: "Germany will fall into a deep recession."

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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just wake up and found out i have been missing out 7 pages since i last active on the thread
What has happened? Any super substantial breakthroughs at the moment? Did Lisitschansk and Donetsk cauldron already closed??
The Ukrainians fled, but a small number were surrounded.
He also made an interesting pass at China. He argues that by taking a greater share of the burden in ensuring European security, they will help the US keep their values and interests in the Indo-Pacific protected.
The US sanctions 5 Chinese companies for what they call, supporting the Russian military and defense base.
Does the western world want China to choose to help Russia?
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This is the news at the beginning of the war. It seems that some people really want us to be on the opposite side.If this continues to happen, I can only wish the western world “have a good luck”.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Ukrainians fled, but a small number were surrounded.
They left Severodonetsk for the most part towards Lysychansk but they are currently stuck there for the most part. Most of the heavy equipment seems to have retreated like last week towards Bakhmut but most of the men are stuck at Lysychansk still. The Russians probably allowed them to withdraw so they wouldn't have to do heavy fighting inside the Azot plant. I for one would not want to do combat near nitric acid. I would rather fight with sticks of dynamite next to gasoline. It is that bad.

Does the western world want China to choose to help Russia?
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This is the news at the beginning of the war. It seems that some people really want us to be on the opposite side.If this continues to happen, I can only wish the western world “have a good luck”.
China does not want to disengage from the global trade system but the idea they will just passively accept every single US demand is callous behavior on the US' part. The US likes to engage in salami slicing tactics and this is how we got to the Ukraine situation in the first place. The US should cool down or they risk really getting China against them too.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia is the world's largest country, it has no shortage of land, agriculture, or resources, so I don't think territory gained is a informative gauge for victory.

At this point, Russia should just do regime change. The amount of weapons/resources the US/NATO has poured into Ukraine is equivalent to a declaration of war against Russia, and leaving an pro-NATO regime intact is a strategic defeat. Russia doesn't even need to annex Western Ukraine, it should just topple the gov't in Kiev, leave a pro-Russian successor regime, and then annex the DNR/LNR/Southeast, and that is a strategic win. Anything that leaves a pro-NATO regime intact is just delaying an inevitable conflict 10 years down the line, who knows if Putin will be around to resolve it then.

Most of Russia is worthless ice desert. The black sea coast of Ukraine is worth a lot more than the same area would be in Siberia. The agricultural industry alone will give Russia a huge international influence.

After Luhank oblast, next is Donetsk oblast. The strategic plan is to gradually reduce the Kiev regime's population. Luhansk oblast has 2.1 million people. Donetsk oblast has 4.1 million people. Without these two, the Kiev regime's population falls to 37 million. Then take Kherson oblast and the Kiev regime's population falls below 36 million. This will ensure an ever shrinking pool of men from which the Kiev regime can draw upon for war.

Ukraine conducted an online census in 2019, finding that the population was 37 million, 20 million women, 17 million men, 20 million of which are working (or military) age. Since the war started, about 8 million people have left Ukraine and 2.8 million returned (
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). Most of the refugees will be working age women. The recent attacks on civilian targets in Kiev should increase the outflow of people again, but they should still have a few million military age men.
 
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