The War in the Ukraine

kokole said:

The Russians are launching up to thousand projectiles an hour, their resources are limitless – Reznikov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine​

SATURDAY, 25 JUNE 2022

The Russian army is launching up to a thousand projectiles every hour in order to undermine the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says Oleskii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine.

They use a thousand projectiles an hour. Unfortunately, their resources are limitless.

Such limitless resources can only be countered using effective weapons with a fundamentally different approach - precision targeting."

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They're mainly talking about unguided artillery shells with a range of up to 30km, as Russia does have a large stockpile from the Soviet days

But what about all those targets which are further away?

Remember that guided weapons are expensive compared with artillery shells.. For example, a single low-cost JDAM costing about $30K would buy about 100 new artillery shells.

AndrewS said:

Of course. Ballistic missiles are expensive.
The idea is that after the door has been opened, you can use lower-cost PGMs.

The US has more than 10,000 precision glide bombs and 250,000 JDAMs for this task.

So for the cost of a single DF-26 missile (est $20 Million each) - you could buy 500 SDB-1 glide-bombs ($40K each)
And there are lots of targets worth a $40K bomb.

Hence my statement that Russia doesn't have enough PGMs

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Only problem is all of those bomb need aircraft to bring them close to the target.

And the aircarft can't be used without significant risk even in Ukraine.


IF you try to drop 250 000 JDAM say in Ukriane then you will loose one F-35 for every 100-1000 JDAM. Or one F-16 for every 10-50.

AndrewS said:

When you produce more sophisticated products (like the Germans), most of the product cost breakdown is not due to the cost of the commodities. Yes, there is an impact with higher commodities costs, but it's manageable and everyone else is facing the same commodity costs as well.

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Your biggest failure is to expecting that there is anought gas/energy NOW avaible on the market, only priced slightly higher.


Problem is THERE IS NO energy available for ANY price to replenish the Russian energy.

Means if there is no Russian gas for Germany ,then they
1. Have to shut down big part of the industry
2. Start to invest huge (several itmes/ magintude higher) ammount of money for infrastructure to replenish the Russian gas, it could be an LNG train in Quatar, reactor or new coal mine in GErmany, doesn't matter, the problem is the collapsing economy has to finance it AND it takes years until it will go online.

Feel it ?

The insutry collapsing, and they have to trigger further collapse to reallocate the resources to invest into resource making.


Check north korea, faced exactly the same issue, and took for them decades to replace the oil with coal gasification even with taking huge hit with basic foodstuff.


Or germany in the 30s, exactly same issue. Coal liquification, ring a bell ?

⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine ( June 29, 2022)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

The enemy suffers considerable losses.

10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) suffered considerable losses during the offensive near the Lisichansk oil refinery. According to captured servicemen from this brigade, 108th Battalion has been completely defeated. Only 30 from 350 servicemen remain in this unit.

115th Mechanised, 79th Air Assault and 25th Airborne brigade of the AFU that operate towards Lisichansk suffer a critical situation in grocery supply. There are a lot of cases of abandoning positions and desertion due to starving.

Attack launched by Russian artillery near Pitomnik (Kharkov region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 100 militants from Kraken Nazi group and about 10 units of combat equipment. Commanders of the militants have decided to abandon the positions and to withdraw the rest of this unit to Kharkov.

Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at military facilities located in Ukraine.

High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 4 command posts, including those of Kharkov-1 and Kharkov-2 Territorial Defence battalions near Kharkov, as well as a training base of mercenaries deployed near Nikolayev.

The neutralised targets include: AFU manpower and military equipment in 32 areas, 1 AFU equipment reparation base near Lisichansk, 8 armament and munitions depots near Shevchenkovo (Kherson region), Spornoye (Donetsk People's Republic, Nikolayev and Ochakovo (Nikolayev region), as well as 1 fuel depot near Kulbakino (Nikolayev region).

Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralised 2 Ukrainian Grad multiple rocket-launching system (MRLS) plattoons near Kalinov, Aleksandrovo-Kalinovsk, as well as 2 artillery plattoons near Avdeyevka that had been shelling the settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 39 command posts, 6 munitions depots, artillery and mortar units in 68 areas, including a unit of French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers at Kubansky island, as well as manpower and military equipment in 216 areas.

Operational-tactical aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 1 MiG-29 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Bashtanki, Nikolayev region.

In addition, 1 self-propelled launching system of Buk-M1 air defence system near Troitskoye (Odessa region).

Russian air defence means have shot down 2 Su-25 airplanes near Kurulka (Kharkov region), Kvitnevoye (Kherson region) and 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Forces near Arkhangelskoye (Nikolayev region).

9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Vesyoloye, Ilyichyovka, Shestakovo, Pitomnik, Liptsy, Ternovaya, Sulinovka (Kharkov region), Tomina Balka (Kherson region), Stakhanov and Kantemirovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

7 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been intercepted near Peski-Radkovskiye, Kapitolovka, Chervoniy Oskol (Kharkov region), Tyaginka, Novokondakovo (Kherson region) and 8 projectiles launched by a MRLS near Kamenka, Brazhkovka (Kharkov region), Krymki, Novosyolovka, Yarovaka (Donetsk People's Republic) and over Snake Island.

In total, 221 airplanes and 134 helicopters, 1,391 unmanned aerial vehicles, 351 air defence missile systems, 3,853 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 692 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,052 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,907 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en

pakje said:

Actual good video, this guy is fairly unbiased or atleast I can't detect it

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This guy doesn't know too much about military so you'll learn nothing from those videos. And yes, Ukrainian troops retreated from this city in an organized manner, it's not a "media quick jab at the Russians" but "it's a fact". The only interesting part from this fight will be why Ukrainians decided to abandon the city (which wasn't fortified, I doubt that too many people know how it's done and what was, or wasn't, done in this case), then stopped and then started some elements of partial defense again. We'll probably get to know in some books in the coming years.

This victory is small and symbolic as it's considered tactical. This is not an opinion but a fact. The fuss about this city was equally big on the Russian and Ukrainian side as well. This guy is one sided and doesn't have too much interesting to say. You can read some random articles instead and maybe find more information.

BTW - he doesn't give any sources for the numbers or situation as well. At least a link to his Patreon is in the description. Always something.

Janiz said:

And yes, Ukrainian troops retreated from this city in an organized manner,

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Falling off destroyed bridges and having friendly fire incidents due to a break down in communication and command structures is what passes for an "organized retreat" these days?.

Janiz said:

The only interesting part from this fight will be why Ukrainians decided to abandon the city (which wasn't fortified, I doubt that too many people know how it's done and what was

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Funny, I do remember a few weeks ago we were told by western OSINTbros, redditors and media that the Ukranians had fortified Lysichansk and were ready to pound the russians away and stop their advance, that the Azot plant would be the next Avostal and how the city was filled with western professionals that would massacre the russian conscripts and whatnot.

Janiz said:

This victory is small and symbolic as it's considered tactical. This is not an opinion but a fact. The fuss about this city was equally big on the Russian and Ukrainian side as well.

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Losing the last major city under Ukranian control within Luhansk Oblast is a minor and symbolic victory for Russia but wasting limited resources on a rock in the Black Sea and sinking tugs is major Ukranian strategic victory, I see

AndrewS said:

What is there for Russia to absorb in Eastern Ukraine? Everything is in ruins and it's not much population actually. We're now seeing estimates of up to $1.1 trillion for rebuilding Ukraine.

Plus wages and the standard of living in Germany will remain far higher than in Russia, even with higher inflation in Germany.

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Minm said:

Most of Russia is worthless ice desert. The black sea coast of Ukraine is worth a lot more than the same area would be in Siberia. The agricultural industry alone will give Russia a huge international influence.



Ukraine conducted an online census in 2019, finding that the population was 37 million, 20 million women, 17 million men, 20 million of which are working (or military) age. Since the war started, about 8 million people have left Ukraine and 2.8 million returned (

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). Most of the refugees will be working age women. The recent attacks on civilian targets in Kiev should increase the outflow of people again, but they should still have a few million military age men.

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yes, what andrews and a few others seem to not understand is that in the long term, occupying additional land and population will always payoff. how many times has a country looked at its past and wondered "i wish i had that piece of land"? there is a case of that for almost every country.

russia will also certainly gain quite a bit of population by annexing some parts of ukraine. the line ups in kerson shows that there is plenty of appetite for Russian passports. there is also the fact that regardless of how uninhabitable a city has been rendered, some citizens who previous fled will always opt to return. so for cities like Mariupol, there will be an influx of citizens returning, if for no other reason than being a refugee really sucks. even in syria plenty of refugees return to their homes after the fighting moved elsewhere.

so as russia make territorial and population gains, it will have to pay the price in blood and treasure in the short term. but if you expand your horizon and look a decade or more down the road, it will be a net gain for russia.

sheogorath said:

Funny, I do remember a few weeks ago we were told by western OSINTbros, redditors and media that the Ukranians had fortified Lysichansk and were ready to pound the russians away and stop their advance, that the Azot plant would be the next Avostal and how the city was filled with western professionals that would massacre the russian conscripts and whatnot.

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Funny, do you know how you fortify a city? Suppose I don't know a thing. You know, what you do when you want to defend a city? Can you tell me the basics? You surely can, sir. Severodonetsk wasn't fortified and we know that from the footage.

Reddit isn't a good source of informations because it's mainly people like you. Start from reading specialised military magazines and books. Then listen to retired professionals (especially officer ranks as they have broader picture usually). Maybe even talk with them about what's going on? They're watching this war and it isn't hard to come by them even in the Internet.

sheogorath said:

Losing the last major city under Ukranian control within Luhansk Oblast is a minor and symbolic victory for Russia but wasting limited resources on a rock in the Black Sea and sinking tugs is major Ukranian strategic victory, I see

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First start from googling those three words: levels of war. Then try to understand the difference. Then try to remember it as it's helpful and military 101.

After some time - comment and give arguments if you don't agree what somebody wrote.

And you'll know why Kherson was more important than Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Or Mariupol.

sheogorath said:

Falling off destroyed bridges and having friendly fire incidents due to a break down in communication and command structures is what passes for an "organized retreat" these days?.

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Have you seen the river? There's a ton of footage when Russians shelled Ukrainian troops there. I know it's portrayed like an ocean but in reality you can get from one side to the other in 1-2 minutes using a pontoon. Breakdowns in communication were caused by something - try to learn why maybe. I don't know what you mean by "these days" as you don't know what it means now and

Janiz said:

Funny, do you know how you fortify a city? Suppose I don't know a thing. You know, what you do when you want to defend a city? Can you tell me the basics? You surely can, sir. Severodonetsk wasn't fortified and we know that from the footage.

Reddit isn't a good source of informations because it's mainly people like you. Start from reading specialised military magazines and books. Then listen to retired professionals (especially officer ranks as they have broader picture usually). Maybe even talk with them about what's going on? They're watching this war and it isn't hard to come by them even in the Internet.

First start from googling those three words: levels of war. Then try to understand the difference. Then try to remember it as it's helpful and military 101.

After some time - comment and give arguments if you don't agree what somebody wrote.

And you'll know why Kherson was more important than Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Or Mariupol.

Have you seen the river? There's a ton of footage when Russians shelled Ukrainian troops there. I know it's portrayed like an ocean but in reality you can get from one side to the other in 1-2 minutes using a pontoon. Breakdowns in communication were caused by something - try to learn why maybe. I don't know what you mean by "these days" as you don't know what it means now and

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You sure sound agitated for someone who's 'side' is winning

Janiz said:

And you'll know why Kherson was more important than Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Or Mariupol

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It seems that now the narrative is now Kherson and the Ukrainian counteroffensive there that has been going on for months... if the Ukrainians fail to take Kherson, the narrative will probably move to another destination