The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden said:

There's close to 3k ATACMS left the M39's were upgraded to M48/M57

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Seriously doubt there are that many left for a missile that stopped being produced in 2007. Also that upgrade program started in 2021, at the rate Lockheed works, I'm gonna make a wild guess and say the amount of missiles upgraded at this point is rather small and not what Ukraine would get anyway.

SolarWarden said:

It maneuvers at mach speed when it descends

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Still a likely known quatity for a more moder system like the S300V4 given that the missile is old and its in the inventory of countries that had cooperated with Russia in air defense matters.

SolarWarden said:

, Russians are still losing ground these drone attacks have changed nothing for Russia... yet.

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Are they?.

Video of what is claimed to be Mohajer-6 destroying an Ukranian tank with an ATGM around Kherson

A large-scale strike with the help of Geran-2 kamikaze drones was inflicted by the Russian army today on October 17. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said that kamikaze drones had attacked energy facilities and critical infrastructure in Kyiv. The office of the energy company Ukrenergo was also hit by Russian Geran-2 drones.




Ukrainian army units on French VAB 4×4 armored vehicles with infantry on board came under attack from Russian artillery in the Kherson region. As a result of the attack, two VAB armored vehicles were destroyed. The video also shows another destroyed armored personnel carrier, but its type could not be determined.


In Germany, at one of the railway stations, self-propelled guns Panzerhaubitze 2000 were seen. As reported, an additional batch of self-propelled guns Panzerhaubitze 2000 is being prepared for shipment to Ukraine. Also, the Ukrainian army will receive a new batch of armored vehicles and other equipment. Earlier, several repaired self-propelled guns of the same type were returned from the Baltic States to Ukraine.

Interesting video here:
I'm guessing the two stroke moped engine's heat signature is too small for MANPADS to engage properly, particularly with this case where it's a frontal shot.

SolarWarden said:

There's only one response to this but US is still iffy in giving ATACMS. Hitting Russian logistics hundreds of kms inside Russia should sting Russia it would put fuel depots in range too.

I guess US figures these attacks make Ukraine thee victim without changing anything in favor of Russia at the frontlines. Russia knows this and likely wants Ukraine to make a mistake by overreacting and rushing some attack on Russian forces before they are ready. It's not a bad tactic either if you get Ukraine civilians pressuring Zelensky to do something now about these drones.

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Why all this emotional over Shahed, young man?

Are you not following the Ukrainian media?
They are taking down 80%-90% of the Shahed-136, I suggest you relax because Ukraine knows what they are doing.

Even with rifles

Well today's big UAV attack waves has certainly had a big effect on morale:






If the goal is to stop these UAV attacks I'm not seeing how any of those suggestions would help. Hell I don't even see how you could further sanction Iran or Russia for that matter.

Temstar said:

Interesting video here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581951230301319168

I'm guessing the two stroke moped engine's heat signature is too small for MANPADS to engage properly, particularly with this case where it's a frontal shot.

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Another angle:

An interesting development if it turns out to be true.

Britons look worried.

Temstar said:

If the goal is to stop these UAV attacks I'm not seeing how any of those suggestions would help. Hell I don't even see how you could further sanction Iran or Russia for that matter.

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They will eventually work around the issue, mostly, temporarily. The cost-benefit equation will always be against Ukraine, though, and trying to counter will represent a net drain of resources for limited gain considering the Russians could just probably send a bigger wave to overwhelm the defenses.

Then they will be forced to decide where to put the limited AD systems they get from the West and what will be sacrificed to the drones.

Regardless, it will have a morale and psychological impact.

Stealthflanker said:

There supposed to be Gepard but i guess those are in other front now. Also Ukrainian Sa-8/Osa are supposed to be active there.

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Don't know how many missiles left for these Osa... I'm quite impressed that they still have SAM left. Soviet stockpiles are probably dried up in EU it's why we are seeing new systems coming in lately.

Military movement in Belarus towards the border with Ukraine:

Geran-2 arrivals in Kiev

Crotale will be sent to the AFU

Evidence of the AFU's high casualty rate