The War in the Ukraine

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
and supposed "purchase" of Iranian missiles help fueled it. me ? I will only believe when the goods is already there.

It's also interesting to see in at least twitterland that people wanting ATACMS for Ukraine. I cannot help think.. Where were the Grom/Hrim-II ballistic missiles they were supposed to be co-developed with Saudi ?

I noticed people seems to think Ukrainian is almost helpless forgetting that they inherited huge chunk of Soviet industries and a fully working missile design bureau. Considering Russians seems lax in finishing the Yzhnoye design bureau. There should be evacuation of production machineries to safer Lviv.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I noticed people seems to think Ukrainian is almost helpless forgetting that they inherited huge chunk of Soviet industries and a fully working missile design bureau.

Did you forget those heavy industrials (or a good chuck of it) are located in the exact same regions where the Russians are sitting on.

There should be evacuation of production machineries to safer Lviv.

They could but production isn’t very likely to resume anytime soon without building the infrastructure and supply chains to keep it operational.
 

Chilled_k6

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes I suspect that's the main reason for importing missiles. And Iran and North Korea have the most sanction resistant arms industry while Russia clearly wasn't ready for decoupling from the West.

What other countries might export to Russia? China can't yet for political reasons, but Pakistan could be one option. As a nuclear weapons state they are essentially safe to do as they please.
Interesting you brought up Pakistan. Fu Qian Shao said Pakistan is supplying Ukraine with artillery shells, delivered via British military cargo plane. Read on Zhihu further where one article from late September states it's 75k shells supplied at that time, which is not insignificant. Maybe Russia can try their luck and provide other benefits to cash strapped Pakistan, since it's the same type of 122mm shells that both Russia and Ukraine uses. Looks like the US has got the lead with that IMF $1.2 bln loan.

 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
This one is kinda dramatic.. Descent of Shahed/Geran-2 to its target captured by AFP photographer


Ukrainian Police tryng to fire on it


Guess the information curfew does not apply for foreign journalist. As we know Ukrainian forces impose order to civilian not to record or post after-impact of Russian strike on Ukrainian targets.
There's only one response to this but US is still iffy in giving ATACMS. Hitting Russian logistics hundreds of kms inside Russia should sting Russia it would put fuel depots in range too.

I guess US figures these attacks make Ukraine thee victim without changing anything in favor of Russia at the frontlines. Russia knows this and likely wants Ukraine to make a mistake by overreacting and rushing some attack on Russian forces before they are ready. It's not a bad tactic either if you get Ukraine civilians pressuring Zelensky to do something now about these drones.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
There's only one response to this but US is still iffy in giving ATACMS. Hitting Russian logistics hundreds of kms inside Russia should sting Russia it would put fuel depots in range too.

I guess US figures these attacks make Ukraine thee victim without changing anything in favor of Russia at the frontlines. Russia knows this and likely wants Ukraine to make a mistake by overreacting and rushing some attack on Russian forces before they are ready. It's not a bad tactic either if you get Ukraine civilians pressuring Zelensky to do something now about these drones.

You know.. Ukraine can play the same game. They always have the options ordering hundreds of cheap Chinese drones and load them with explosive.

This is basically a repeat on what happen in Sevastopol some weeks ago, but Ukraine use commercial drone. These piston engined drones can reach great distance. Even Orlan can actually reach 1500 km if it convert every single drop of its endurance into range. They can comfortably reach any targets in Russia. and their RCS is low enough and cheap enough to be deployed in numbers.

and the best thing of all, you can easily calculate them....all you need to do is gather information on the drone's endurance and use Raymer's simplified endurance to range equation.

Also in ballistic missile department.. have you ever wonder why Ukrainian never seem able to field their Iskander equivalent, the Grom/Hrim-II despite supposed co-development with Saudi ?. Ukraine is not some country without anything you know.. they have Yuzhnoye design bureau, a fully functional missile design bureau with great track record. I find it rather strange that they can't field the missile.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
If Ukraine gets long range weapons like that and hits Russian territory then Russia will just escalate more. They will increase the number of active duty soldiers by calling for more troops and just annex the whole of Ukraine nipping the problem in the bud. And if Ukraine continues with terror attacks in Russia and these increase in scale, then Russia will change the Special Military Operation, into an Anti-Terrorist Operation, and directly target the Ukrainian leadership with individually targeted attacks, including assassinations just like in Chechnya. Good luck trying to talk with one of the Chechen leaders during the independence period. They are all dead. One was talking on a satellite phone and ate a radio guided missile fired from an aircraft. Another fled to the Gulf, and was assassinated there, etc. They will just go meet their hero Stepan Bandera.
 
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