And some said Russia had no way to escalate anymore without resorting to nuclear weapons
Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.As usual Lukashenko uses weird expressions...
Belarus joining is huge. If Russia really was as hard pressed as some pro Kiev people were claiming, there can be no circumstance where Belarus would join. While Russia can always do a nuclear ultimatum if they're defeated, Belarus runs a real risk to be colonized if they get defeated. So evidently Lukashenko has information which the public does not know which caused Belarus to take this decision.
In other news: EU and US ambassadors leaving Kiev.
This strengthens my suspicion that the 300k reservists are almost all not for Ukraine. They're for taking the garrison roles from active duty soldiers on NATO borders, while the active duty troops all go to Ukraine.
We can only observe if the long awaited blitz on Lvov and Kiev will happen, or if Russia is doing something incomprehensible again. To be honest, Russia is right on timeline for a decisive push after spending 8 months slowly degrading Ukrainian forces. And afaik this is the first time since the start of the war when Ukrainian internet access was hit.
I kinda called ages ago as well that Russia may be following roughly same template as the US invasion of Iraq during the Gulf war, with Wagner and LDPR offensive being a stand in for Kuwait and US air campaign.Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.
His advantage is in geography. Any offensive across the Ukraine-Belarus border would be hitting the vulnerable rear area of AFU. Even without attacking his mere threat will draw away AFU troops from the east and south. Belarus also have access to some unique long range MLRS based on Chinese tech that would be a match for HIMAS.
If they really go for a Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus border I want to say I called it.
it is strategic attack, targeting data and energy infrastructure attacks the heart of Ukrainian strategy which depends on light infantry and vehicle swarming, and morale boosting via meme warfare. The only thing I'm surprise about is how long it took. Maybe this is how long it took to get the occupied regions fully intergrated to Russian data and energy networks and off the Ukrainian one.A bit of shock and awe is all very good and raises the spirits of the troops, but it is ultimately a waste of munitions if it is simply a "payback" and not the prelude to a major new ground offensive with fresh troops in large numbers and new fronts being opened.
Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.
His advantage is in geography. Any offensive across the Ukraine-Belarus border would be hitting the vulnerable rear area of AFU. Even without attacking his mere threat will draw away AFU troops from the east and south. Belarus also have access to some unique long range MLRS based on Chinese tech that would be a match for HIMAS.
If they really go for a Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus border I want to say I called it.