The War in the Ukraine

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
As usual Lukashenko uses weird expressions...

Belarus joining is huge. If Russia really was as hard pressed as some pro Kiev people were claiming, there can be no circumstance where Belarus would join. While Russia can always do a nuclear ultimatum if they're defeated, Belarus runs a real risk to be colonized if they get defeated. So evidently Lukashenko has information which the public does not know which caused Belarus to take this decision.

In other news: EU and US ambassadors leaving Kiev.

This strengthens my suspicion that the 300k reservists are almost all not for Ukraine. They're for taking the garrison roles from active duty soldiers on NATO borders, while the active duty troops all go to Ukraine.

We can only observe if the long awaited blitz on Lvov and Kiev will happen, or if Russia is doing something incomprehensible again. To be honest, Russia is right on timeline for a decisive push after spending 8 months slowly degrading Ukrainian forces. And afaik this is the first time since the start of the war when Ukrainian internet access was hit.
Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.

His advantage is in geography. Any offensive across the Ukraine-Belarus border would be hitting the vulnerable rear area of AFU. Even without attacking his mere threat will draw away AFU troops from the east and south. Belarus also have access to some unique long range MLRS based on Chinese tech that would be a match for HIMAS.

Please no China-related involvement

If they really go for a Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus border I want to say I called it.
 
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sheogorath

Major
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.

His advantage is in geography. Any offensive across the Ukraine-Belarus border would be hitting the vulnerable rear area of AFU. Even without attacking his mere threat will draw away AFU troops from the east and south. Belarus also have access to some unique long range MLRS based on Chinese tech that would be a match for HIMAS.

If they really go for a Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus border I want to say I called it.
I kinda called ages ago as well that Russia may be following roughly same template as the US invasion of Iraq during the Gulf war, with Wagner and LDPR offensive being a stand in for Kuwait and US air campaign.

Anyone claiming Ukraine is stronger now with NATO training vs with former USSR troops is delusional. Back when Russia made a slight mistake in undermanning, they immediately got repulsed from Kiev all the way to the Belarus border. So it is undeniable that Ukraine was degraded since Feb 24, one can only argue to which degree.

I've always guessed that the Russian strategy was to go all in once Ukraine is sufficient degraded, which means not just storming the Donbass but storming Lvov and central Ukraine.

But nothing is certain as of now. Russians did start hitting critical infrastructure as was said they had to do in order to win. However, Belarus joining means that either Belarus is committing unforced national suicide for nothing, or Belarus knows Russian plans and believes they have a high chance of success.
 
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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A bit of shock and awe is all very good and raises the spirits of the troops, but it is ultimately a waste of munitions if it is simply a "payback" and not the prelude to a major new ground offensive with fresh troops in large numbers and new fronts being opened.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
A bit of shock and awe is all very good and raises the spirits of the troops, but it is ultimately a waste of munitions if it is simply a "payback" and not the prelude to a major new ground offensive with fresh troops in large numbers and new fronts being opened.
it is strategic attack, targeting data and energy infrastructure attacks the heart of Ukrainian strategy which depends on light infantry and vehicle swarming, and morale boosting via meme warfare. The only thing I'm surprise about is how long it took. Maybe this is how long it took to get the occupied regions fully intergrated to Russian data and energy networks and off the Ukrainian one.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Belarus doesn't have a lot of troops, but Lukashenko did say it was going to be combined Belarusian and Russian.

His advantage is in geography. Any offensive across the Ukraine-Belarus border would be hitting the vulnerable rear area of AFU. Even without attacking his mere threat will draw away AFU troops from the east and south. Belarus also have access to some unique long range MLRS based on Chinese tech that would be a match for HIMAS.

If they really go for a Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus border I want to say I called it.

Please no China-related involvement

It could also explain why the Russians are so stupidly undermanned in Ukraine and where entire Russian army groups have disappeared to.

Bit of a long shot, but we should see if there is anything to this based on whether Belarus also invades, and what kind of hardware they deploy if they do.
 
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