The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath · Oct 8, 2022

phrozenflame said:
Russia can call it SMO or anti terrorist operation or war or circus of clowns, it does not matter. Russia has very limited capability of non nuclear escalation.

Don't they?. They have plenty of mobilization capability left on manpower alone and units from other military districts to deploy in the area. There is also the fact that they could increase the RuAF involvement in the whole affair. Then they could also make the ROE less restrictive and just blanket entire towns with artillery regardless of who is in there.

They can still hit targets in Lviv and other areas of Ukraine and they could also get Belarus involved from the North

So yes, they still have the hability to escalate.

phrozenflame said:
If Ukraine is capable of sabotage in Kherch bridge, then it is capable of sabotaging civilian infrastructure in Russia proper too.

Maybe, but considering their sabotages attempts within Ukraine in the occupied areas have already been of limited success, them being able to sabotage inside Russia are even already more limited.

The Kerch bridge could just have been pure luck, false flag or a number of other factors.

phrozenflame said:
Russia couldn't reinforce Liman for 3 weeks and all it could muster is to partially secure a road for a fighting retreat.

Couldn't or wouldn't?. Trying to answer that question with any certainty is just especulation on your part but so far, the way the Russians have been fighting, it seems to suggest more of a "wouldn't", for whatever reason.

phrozenflame said:
We've heard many times 'now we must have strong response' after Izyum, after Liman, North Eastern Kherson etc etc. Nothing happened.

Again, we don't know why. There is some sort of political game going on Russia where they taking their bureaucratic sweet ass time to react to stuff.

phrozenflame said:
Why would Zelensky be in Poland?

xypher said:
Why would he be in Poland? He was in Kyiv when Russian forces were closing onto the capital, now the frontline is in the far eastern part of Ukraine.

Have you guys forgotten the infamous blue screen speech, pretending to be in the streets of Kiev in February-Early March with just a t-shirt and no coat?. The guy isn't going to stay in Kiev to find out what might get hit in the city as an answer to jihading the Kerch Bridge.

Specially after he has been also called out in the west for begging for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia.

obj 705A · Oct 8, 2022

plawolf said:
No one said it wasn’t a legitimate military target, but similarly no one can deny a suicide VBIED attack isn’t a terrorist tactic.

One easy and clear cut way to distinguish between legitimate military attack and terrorist attack is whether the Geneva convention allows for the attackers to be shot on the spot if caught.

When a fighter has to defend his country then he has to defend it whatever way possible, if he instead chooses to read sheets of paper to check whether those papers approve of his actions or not then that is no fighter, that is just a p*ssy who should give up his weapons to some one actually willing to use all means to defend his country. whether a fighter is using a knife or a gun or even his teeth as a weapon then all is acceptable as long as he harms the enemy, nothing is forbidden.
Same thing goes for this bridge, don't blame the Ukrainians for being able to get past the crappy Russian security, instead blame the Russians for being so inept that they couldn't prevent a truck filled with explosives from going to the bridge.

Regardless of how righteous (or not) the Russian cause is, the fact still is that the Russians were the ones who invaded, you can't invade some one and then cry that they are cheating or using underhanded means when they give you a bloody nose, instead the Russians should blame themselves for using poor military strategy and for not adequately protecting such a vital piece of infrastructure.

The Russian military is clearly no where near as superior to the Ukrainian military military as we thought they were. When you want to take out a guy who is a little smaller than you then how do you do it? Do you punch him on the shoulders or do you stab him in the back of his head when he least suspects it?

Since the very beginning of the war the Russian military has been punching Ukraine on it's shoulders, if they had instead used all their force from day one and launched decapitating strikes on the positions of every leader in Ukraine then this wouldn't have happened.
The fact that Zelensky was allowed to visit Izyum while Ukraine shells Belgorod from time to time is enough to show how inept the Russian military leadership is.

baykalov · Oct 8, 2022

It turns out that the transport-logistics damage is not total.

Quoting from popular Russian Telegram channels:

The movement of vehicles along the Crimean bridge has begun, the head of Crimea Aksyonov reports.

“At the moment, traffic is open to cars and buses with a full inspection procedure. We ask truck drivers to plan their route using the Kerch ferry crossing. Two hours later, the Kerch-2 ferry starts sailing across the strait,” Aksyonov said.

......
Reverse movement of passenger cars is carried out along the Crimean bridge, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.

......
The condition of the intact part of the roadway allows the launch of car traffic on the Crimean bridge after 16:00 today in one lane in reverse mode, said Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Savelyev.

......
The first trains on the Crimean bridge will go by 20:00 Moscow time, the Ministry of Transport reported.

SampanViking · Oct 8, 2022

This is very curious!!??
The very last fraction of a second before the full white out of the explosion.
The bottom of the screen whites out but the lorry is still intact.
How could this happen?

Edit ....... it has been suggested to me that this could just be an effect of the scan rate of the camera.

el pueblo unido · Oct 8, 2022

kokole said:
It turns out that the transport-logistics damage is not total.

Quoting from popular Russian Telegram channels:

The old style train rail will be intact and will works fine thanks to lack of electricity inovlved (Unlike the HSR rails in China), the damage done to the bridge surface however will take at least a month to repair. so this whole ISIS style attack literally did nothing other than 3 civilians killed, some major inconvience for the civilian traffic and wastes of money for the repair. And perhaps some more blow to the moral of the Russian population if no retaliation is involved afterward

Sheleah · Oct 8, 2022

sheogorath said:
So the Ukranians are fully embracing the jihadi aspect of NATO's training. Already nailed down the prisoner execution, collective punishment of towns, head cutting, rushing with technicals, drones with grenades and now massive IED's which also kills civilians.

What nonsense are they talking about here????... Sabotage units are in all the armies of the world, and partisan actions are created in all the invasions carried out in the history of mankind... The pro-Russians believed that invading to a country like Ukraine because the oligarchs and the Russian government felt like it, it was going to be a walk in the park, now they come with that stupid narrative that the Ukrainians are Jihadists!!!.... The Soviets, the Chinese or the Iranians have carried out sabotage actions and partisan groups were created that gave their lives to hit the structures of the invaders who were in their respective countries, so do not come with bullshit at this point

daifo · Oct 8, 2022

The DailyMail has many photos and videos of the incident. Looks like the guards have become complacent as the truck inspection only involves 10 seconds of opening/closing the rear door. One direction of the car bridge is down and the parallel rail bridge caught on fire due to the explosion. Not a civil engineer, but i would be worry to declare them "safe and stable" in such a short time after a bombing

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baykalov · Oct 8, 2022

According to "Readovka", the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge did not fully meet its objective and for this reason it is possible that Kiev will try again:

Automatic translation:

The attack on the Crimean bridge is a complex multi-level operation of the collective West, but there are nuances. Obviously, the level of damage from the attack is not as anticipated, which means that both Kiev and Brussels could have their heads blown off.

We wrote earlier that it was impossible to synchronize in time and place the moment of detonation of the truck and the passage of the train with fuel and lubricants without the involvement of Western intelligence facilities (including satellite) and target designation. This is a complex operation, which had been planned a long time ago. However, we dare to assume that it did not achieve its original objectives.

At this point, it is quite obvious that, at the very least, railroad communication over the bridge will be restored within the next 24 hours, and, consequently, the organizers of the terrorist attack did not achieve their main strategic goal of cutting off the supply lines of the Kherson group. Moreover, if we consider the place of the explosion, we understand that it occurred several hundred meters from the Crimean "Achilles' heel" - the arch of the bridge. This is where three types of traffic intersect: shipping, railroad and automobile, and this is where the railroad string of the bridge closely adjoins the automobile one.

Obviously, this was the point where it was supposed to collapse all the spans, thereby blocking the exit from the Sea of Azov. However, something went wrong, and the tanks with the car ended up at the same point somewhat earlier, or the calculation was not quite accurate. Thus, today Kiev and the Western handlers only solved the problem of the psychological effect of the strike, but not the strategic one.

Finally, note that all the posters and postage stamps now being replicated by Zelensky's office show the explosion in the vicinity of the arch.

Apparently, Kiev had only one opportunity to carry out a similar attack on the bridge, and only a partial effect was achieved, the resonance and consequences of which will be leveled in the coming days.

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sheogorath · Oct 8, 2022

kokole said:
According to "Readovka", the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge did not fully meet its objective and for this reason it is possible that Kiev will try again:

Unless they try again with something else like a missile, this is the type of attack that only works once due to the limitations of access to the target. If you fail at exploiting the oportunity, the chances of a being able to carry a repeat succesfully drop dramatically.

tankphobia · Oct 8, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578752016540913665

At least one of the spans appears to be drivable, I would not really trust driving logistics trucks across until further assessment is done though.

Further on about people harping on about the terror/suicidal attack angle. Russian forces kill a bunch of civilians every time they attack Ukrainian civil infrastructure such as power generation, are you going to apply the same standard or are you going to keep hyperfocusing on an attack that killed 3 people including the perpetrator?

The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath

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baykalov

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SampanViking

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el pueblo unido

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