The War in the Ukraine

Weaasel said:

One will see how rational the Ukrainians actually are. They will definitely have a fairly accurate estimate of the Russians that they faced in and around Lyman, and they will know the rate at which they outnumbered them. As for the Russians, the Russians do not play hold on to any territory no matter what. The Russians could have withdrawn a week or two ago, but they probably decided to stick around to slowdown the Ukrainian general offensive elsewhere, allow for reinforcements elsewhere in northern Donbass and Kharkov to arrive and consolidate themselves for a future counterattack.

Hindsight is 20/20, and the Russians definitely did have the resources to have had at least 15,000 extra troops heavily equipped and on the defensive in Kharkov and northern Donbass before the Ukrainians arrived, that would probably have greatly limited Ukrainian gains. The Ukrainians have done well to do what they need to do and exploit Russian lack of man power and other weaknesses in that location.

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Its a game. Ukraine can keep attacking weak spots, gain territory, use that for propaganda purposes, gain more Western and domestic support, increase morale in the Army etc.

This situation won't change until Russia brings in more troops in the front lines. That should happen be in 1.5/2 months

That's it for Lyman it seems. Russian troops have completely withdrawn from the city and have set up defensive lines further behind

The amount of resources being poured into Lyman by the Ukranians seems kind of baffling and the losses must be huge, because of how long it has taken them to just carve away parts of the city even when the russians have undermaned the area. To the point the Ukranians have had to pull troops out of Soledar and Bakhmut where the Mercs are already gaining ground as it is.

What's the long term strategy here, because the amount of equipment they must be lossing is probably off the charts and might reach a point of diminishing returns as the west losses its possibities of replenishment. It might reach a point where inventories run so low, the AFU might start looking even more like Jihadis, running around in TOW-armed technicals and MRAPs than a standing army because that's the bulk of what the west can send.

Just for something that might turn out to be Snake Island scenario?. That was sold like massive victory that would turn the tide of war according to our local Pro-Ukranian squad, but it amounted to pretty much fuck all where even the Squad doesn't talk about it or remembers anymore.

sheogorath said:

What's the long term strategy here, because the amount of equipment they must be lossing is probably off the charts and might reach a point of diminishing returns as the west losses its possibities of replenishment.

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I wouldnt worry too much. Statistically Ukraine gets most of it's arms donations from Russia

lucretius said:

I wouldnt worry too much. Statistically Ukraine gets most of it's arms donations from Russia

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I know you are just being snarky and cope-ish but not really, as evidenced by the use of images from depots somewhere else, equipment evidently destroyed a long time and equipment evidenly in condition to be used and for which Ukraine has no capacity to repair. Even managed to lose two Su-24 in the process, do you have any captured ones yet?

Last time I checked, this offensive is being conducted with mostly pick-ups and SUV and in the south, which you conveniently stopped talking about when it didn't suit you, we keep seeing BMP-1, YPR-765 and the same old T-64 and what's left of the polish T-72M.

If anything, it is likely that most of the captured equipment Ukraine has that is indeed somewhat operative, is either in the house of some Oligarch or just in Kiev to defend Zelensky as a last ditch effort as there is no way to conduct maintenance on it on the front-lines.

It seems like many people in SDF aren’t giving enough credit to Ukrainian military personnel for the recent military victories and only blaming Russian for their inability to hold territories. Ukranian fought these battles with their heart and soul. AFU fought so many The last stand battles than Russian armed forces. Who would had thought a western camo uniform and some western training would transform an ordinary ukrainian conscript into to a super soldier.

sheogorath said:

I know you are just being snarky and cope-ish but not really, as evidenced by the use of images from depots somewhere else, equipment evidently destroyed a long time and equipment evidenly in condition to be used and for which Ukraine has no capacity to repair. Even managed to lose two Su-24 in the process, do you have any captured ones yet?

Last time I checked, this offensive is being conducted with mostly pick-ups and SUV and in the south, which you conveniently stopped talking about when it didn't suit you, we keep seeing BMP-1, YPR-765 and the same old T-64 and what's left of the polish T-72M.

If anything, it is likely that most of the captured equipment Ukraine has that is indeed somewhat operative, is either in the house of some Oligarch or just in Kiev to defend Zelensky as a last ditch effort as there is no way to conduct maintenance on it on the front-lines.

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They do deploy some armors in Kharkiv tho, as evident of the usage of captured Russian tanks deployed there, tho only in limited number it seems

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

It seems like many people in SDF aren’t giving enough credit to Ukrainian military personnel for the recent military victories and only blaming Russian for their inability to hold territories. Ukranian fought these battles with their heart and soul. AFU fought so many The last stand battles than Russian armed forces. Who would had thought a western camo uniform and some western training would transform an ordinary ukrainian conscript into to a super soldier.

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A lot of coping happening about this war. Ukrainians, for whatever the reason, they are fighting with a proper heart and soul

Even if I dont particularly sympathise with how they got themselves into this position, I cant help but respect them for being warriors and willing to go down to the last man to defend their homeland.

Even for an enemy, as long as they are proper warriors I will always respect them. At least they are willing to risk their lives down on the trenches than the usual internet keyboard warriors we have here and in other places

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

It seems like many people in SDF aren’t giving enough credit to Ukrainian military personnel for the recent military victories and only blaming Russian for their inability to hold territories. Ukranian fought these battles with their heart and soul. AFU fought so many The last stand battles than Russian armed forces. Who would had thought a western camo uniform and some western training would transform an ordinary ukrainian conscript into to a super soldier.

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In as much as the Ukrainians have done well in Kharkov and northern Donetsk over the last month, the reason for people being guarded about the extent of Ukrainian victories is because of the fact that indeed the Russians have been much smaller in number than the Ukrainians and secondly, because the Ukrainians, also given Western training in Kherson and Zhaporizhizia have been decisively beaten back after repeated offensives or similar or even greater number of personnel committed when faced with Russian defences that have much larger number of persons and materiel than has been the case during the Kharkiv offensive.

RottenPanzer said:

They do deploy some armors in Kharkiv tho, as evident of the usage of captured Russian tanks deployed there, tho only in limited number it seems

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Yes, but the examples are so few and far inbetween compared to what currently comprises the bulk of the ukranian offensive that such graph is mostly propaganda and disingeniousness.