The War in the Ukraine

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
seems that switchblade drones are not that easy to use and that have forced Ukrainians to use modified DJI drones or other commercial ones.

View attachment 97926

They also a bit costly, i guess for the price of one those you can buy ton of cheap drones on Alibaba and modify them to carry bombs or
buy a big gas powered rc plane:
View attachment 97928
fit it with a nice autopilot:

View attachment 97929
A ton of explosive and you have a maneuverable cruise missile.
The stuff laundered from taobao unironically probably has better build quality than Switchblade, and defintely better payload.

Ukraine war really shows the level of drone tech dominance China has. When even civilian model drones are sought after as golden standard for recon and deep strikes.

Beijing has cracked the ability to make quality drones with good payloads in truly industrial amounts. Some nations can achieve the first two criteria, but no one can achieve the third without heavily compromising quality and payload.

Given the large role of drones in this conflict, it's easy to imagine how the PLAGF could crush both Russia's and Ukraine's army using the original, military spec versions of the drones sought after by both, not smuggled in limited amounts internationally to circumvent bans or assembled in Iran, but produced en masse across the whole mainland.

This is also a wake up call for those countries who think an invasion of China can work. Even completely disregarding the PLA's own drones as most simulations seem to completely ignore, just think what happens when billions of people crowdfund these dual use drone companies and create volunteer led drone swarms?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The stuff laundered from taobao unironically probably has better build quality than Switchblade, and defintely better payload.

Ukraine war really shows the level of drone tech dominance China has. When even civilian model drones are sought after as golden standard for recon and deep strikes.

Beijing has cracked the ability to make quality drones with good payloads in truly industrial amounts. Some nations can achieve the first two criteria, but no one can achieve the third without heavily compromising quality and payload.

Given the large role of drones in this conflict, it's easy to imagine how the PLAGF could crush both Russia's and Ukraine's army using the original, military spec versions of the drones sought after by both, not smuggled in limited amounts internationally to circumvent bans or assembled in Iran, but produced en masse across the whole mainland.

This is also a wake up call for those countries who think an invasion of China can work. Even completely disregarding the PLA's own drones as most simulations seem to completely ignore, just think what happens when billions of people crowdfund these dual use drone companies and create volunteer led drone swarms?
I suspect South Korea waking up and becoming more conciliar towards China is because they were given a subtle message that with the PLAGF drone fleet combined with standard PLA forces, their air defenses could be rendered just a paper tiger. Yoon must understand that the ROK Army is not equipped to deal with Chinese strike drone and drone guided artillery capabilities, and won't be for a very long time.

Russia and North Korea are also taking notes furiously.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ah, the old OPSEC excuse for why Ukrainians aren't providing any evidence for their claims. OPSEC has nothing to do with it. Ukrainians have posted a few videos of switchblades in action (many of them missing). If they had more they'd release more.

I think it's a few factors, the build quality seems poor (remember the wood screws hold it together), it's difficult to operate (hence the misses) and the warhead size is too low.
I mean we legit have heard basically nothing of the drone since it was given to Ukraine, I don't think they are terrible since the US Special forces in ME took a liking to them and ordered more, they really may just be not suited for anything more than blowing up people in sandals and fail miserably against EW defenses, after all even a much larger TB-2 was brought down by the Russians.

Alternatively, Ukrainian forces finds them more useful in the non-suicidal role and just use them as a lightweight scouting drone. Either way, drones are heavily used by both sides in this war and seems to be the future of warfare, barring some super EW suites that disables all electronics in a given area.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I wouldn't be driving 50 ton tanks over 'frozen' rivers. I've seen comments here about just wait until the rivers freeze. I live in Canada, further north than Ukraine is. You don't play around on frozen rivers if you like life. I can't imagine driving tanks over them
We have winter ice bridges for full loaded trucks in Canada... but for small rivers that only need a pontoon and that will be in a quite low level because of winter, I don't think It will be a big deal to cross with bmp-1-2-3 at full speed.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Interesting analysis by Ben Hodges. In the disorganized and trashed state of abandoned Russian positions with tons if abandoned material he sees evidence that their soldiers are poorly led and demoralized.

He claims that the Russian fleet is hiding behind Crimea, terrified of Ukrainian coastal defenses. If the Ukrainians get within 80km of Sevastopol they will be able to make the port untenable for the Russians with long range HIMARS strikes.

Propaganda or facts?

 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Interesting analysis by Ben Hodges. In the disorganized and trashed state of abandoned Russian positions he sees evidence that their soldiers are poorly led and demoralized.

He claims that the Russian fleet is hiding behind Crimea, terrified of Ukrainian coastal defenses. If the Ukrainians get within 80km of Sevastopol they will be able to make the port untenable for the Russians with long range HIMARS strikes.

Propaganda or facts?


I don’t see why the Russian navy should be terrified when they aren’t even needed. What are the ships going to do? Attempt an landing on their own? When there is no operations to push further west?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Interesting analysis by Ben Hodges. In the disorganized and trashed state of abandoned Russian positions with tons if abandoned material he sees evidence that their soldiers are poorly led and demoralized.

He claims that the Russian fleet is hiding behind Crimea, terrified of Ukrainian coastal defenses. If the Ukrainians get within 80km of Sevastopol they will be able to make the port untenable for the Russians with long range HIMARS strikes.

Propaganda or facts?
Even if Russia had to evacuate Sevastopol for whatever reason they would still have naval port facilities in Novorossiysk outside HIMARS range. This just shows how oblivious he is about the infrastructure. As for Russia keeping its Buran corvettes close to land, they are mostly being used as launch platforms for cruise missiles, they need to be close to shore to reload.

I think he is just clueless.

While drones are an issue, they hit a Raptor small boat with a drone, thus far there are no confirmed reports of either Harpoon or Neptune being used and working. To the best of our knowledge the Moskva sank because of a detonation in its own air to air missile magazines, not an external cruise missile attack, maybe after the war we will have more information on the sinking. Russia has a couple Admiral Grigorovich frigates in the Black Sea fleet and those have basically the Buk missile system so they can defend themselves against drones.
 

Maikeru

Captain
Registered Member
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ISW Update, especially on Russian recruitment efforts

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MilitaryLand update

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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
I dug into that website's history of publications and the entire thing is a propaganda platform for the US MIC. Just another ASPI. Look at their board of directors and then laugh at yourself for listening to a single word that comes from their platform.
 
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