The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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kokole said:
Lavrov's statement yesterday, which could be interpreted that Russia will start acting more seriously:



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Going by this I fear Russia is entering it's version of late Qing and century of humiliation.
Dragon of War said:
It's like choosing between having a global deterrence / power projection capability or committing all their eggs to this single war in Ukraine.
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The conflict in Ukraine is like the Sino Japanese War. If Russia fails to achieve it's goals then Ukraine may be recognized as the leading Eastern European country and Russia may fall into a century of humiliation. Chinese have been there done that, it's not fun. Already countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are derussifying just like how Vietnam and Korea, desinified. China is still dealing with the fallout of the Qing Dynasty today.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Going by this I fear Russia is entering it's version of late Qing and century of humiliation.

The conflict in Ukraine is like the Sino Japanese War. If Russia fails to achieve it's goals then Ukraine may be recognized as the leading Eastern European country and Russia may fall into a century of humiliation. Chinese have been there done that, it's not fun. Already countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are derussifying just like how Vietnam and Korea, desinified. China is still dealing with the fallout of the Qing Dynasty today.
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Nope. Ukraine is economically a gone case. Even if it is integrated into the EU it will only facilitate the exodus of people from Ukraine to other parts of Europe.
 
Dragon of War

Dragon of War

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siegecrossbow said:
Nope. Ukraine is economically a gone case. Even if it is integrated into the EU it will only facilitate the exodus of people from Ukraine to other parts of Europe.
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The war still isn't over, but no doubt the Baltic states and Poland are no longer Nato ground zeros, Ukraine is, provided Ukraine succeed.
 
A

Atomicfrog

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siegecrossbow said:
Nope. Ukraine is economically a gone case. Even if it is integrated into the EU it will only facilitate the exodus of people from Ukraine to other parts of Europe.
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The EU economy is clearly not going great. i'm clearly not sure that they want another bad apple. Ukraine people will exode everywhere anyway and a lot more during and after next winter... Ukraine could become a no man's land under Russia and Nato tossing games.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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siegecrossbow said:
Nope. Ukraine is economically a gone case. Even if it is integrated into the EU it will only facilitate the exodus of people from Ukraine to other parts of Europe.
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If Russia loses it will still be very bad for Russian influence for decades. It will be seen as Putin's self strengthening movement failed just like Li Hongzhang's. Ukraine, while poor, will have propaganda and aid propping it up.

Already Mongolia is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or classical Mongolian (China). Kazakhstan is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or Persian (China). This is just like Vietnamese switching to Latin letters and Koreans banning hanja. Russians failing to win here is like Qing losing Vietnam to France and Korea to Japan.

This is bad because weakness invites aggression. Humanity might not survive the Russian version of Second Sino Japanese War.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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FairAndUnbiased said:
If Russia loses it will still be very bad for Russian influence for decades. It will be seen as Putin's self strengthening movement failed just like Li Hongzhang's. Ukraine, while poor, will have propaganda and aid propping it up.

Already Mongolia is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or classical Mongolian (China). Kazakhstan is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or Persian (China). This is just like Vietnamese switching to Latin letters and Koreans banning hanja. Russians failing to win here is like Qing losing Vietnam to France and Korea to Japan.

This is bad because weakness invites aggression. Humanity might not survive the Russian version of Second Sino Japanese War.
Click to expand...

It already is very bad for Russian influence. Without a war Russian influence is already waning, the war just expedited it.
 
A

Abominable

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FairAndUnbiased said:
If Russia loses it will still be very bad for Russian influence for decades. It will be seen as Putin's self strengthening movement failed just like Li Hongzhang's. Ukraine, while poor, will have propaganda and aid propping it up.

Already Mongolia is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or classical Mongolian (China). Kazakhstan is switching to Latin letters instead of Cyrillic (Russia) or Persian (China). This is just like Vietnamese switching to Latin letters and Koreans banning hanja. Russians failing to win here is like Qing losing Vietnam to France and Korea to Japan.

This is bad because weakness invites aggression. Humanity might not survive the Russian version of Second Sino Japanese War.
Click to expand...
Russian influence will remain constant. Yes they are getting weaker, but so is the west. All the stan countries switching to Latin now have missed the gravy train.
 
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