The War in the Ukraine

According to ISW, Russia no longer controls all of Luhansk in an abrupt reversal. They have been virtually forced out of Kharkiv area back into Russia.

This is a massive intelligence failure on Russian part not to have foreseen an Ukrainian buildup. Otherwise they wouldn’t have garrisoned the area with lightly equipped, inexperienced and low morale Rossgvardiya troops.

Russia’s ability to coordinate their forces is virtually absent. Their planning appears in disarray. Their only saving grace is that Ukraine will have to slow down to consolidate their unexpectedly rapid gains in the east.

Russia’s dream of retaking the Donbass has been severely set back. I don’t think they’ll be able to make tangible progress on that front this year. Holding on to what they have will be enough of an achievement.

Zichan said:

According to ISW, Russia no longer controls all of Luhansk in an abrupt reversal. They have been virtually forced out of Kharkiv area back into Russia.

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Russian and Pro-Russian sources are already reporting that they lost Belogorovka west of Lisichansk in Luhansk... The only objective that Russia had achieved, was already lost, they could not control the entire Luhansk Oblast, now they begin to withdraw "in good faith". will" or "tactically"... Morale rising for Ukrainian fighters




APU publishes a video with a crossing over the river. Seversky Donets and the free location of the reconnaissance group in Svyatogorsk (17.5 km north of Slavyansk, DPR). They report on the occupation of n.p. Belogorovka west of Lisichansk. There is an assault on the Red River. There are photos of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of N. p. Uda, in the area where a week ago the Russian Armed Forces carried out offensive operations

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Sheleah said:

Russian and Pro-Russian sources are already reporting that they lost Belogorovka west of Lisichansk in Luhansk... The only objective that Russia had achieved, was already lost, they could not control the entire Luhansk Oblast, now they begin to withdraw "in good faith". will" or "tactically"... Morale rising for Ukrainian fighters

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569607785960165376

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569427491575447556

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569599475500609536

APU publishes a video with a crossing over the river. Seversky Donets and the free location of the reconnaissance group in Svyatogorsk (17.5 km north of Slavyansk, DPR). They report on the occupation of n.p. Belogorovka west of Lisichansk. There is an assault on the Red River. There are photos of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of N. p. Uda, in the area where a week ago the Russian Armed Forces carried out offensive operations

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According to ISW, Ukraine recaptured Bilohorivka 3 days ago.

It’s impressive to watch how a NATO trained army is teaching the Russians humility.

tankphobia said:

If Russia can barely afford the money to modernize it's ground army what makes you think they can afford to pay a third party for hundreds of MALE attack drones? Note that amounts you are repeating over and over in this thread would cost to the tune of billions.

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No big amount for the Russians who economy compared to the Ukrainians is basically intact, with sanctions and all. The big problem who is going to sell them? any country that sell them weapons would be seem by the West as getting involved in this war. The Chinese may not give a rat ass about the Americans but they don't want to strain their relationship with the Europeans. The only option is getting it from Iran with Chinese components (Laser gyros, sensors ,ICs and so on) filling the gaps.

Iranian Shaheed suicide drone in use in the conflict.

Maybe there will be some change in the "special military operation" in the coming days:

Lavrov's statement yesterday, which could be interpreted that Russia will start acting more seriously:

According to Lavrov, the Kiev authorities say that negotiations can take place only after Ukraine’s victory. "And then, when ‘Russia leaves the Ukrainian lands’, they would be ready to talk, imposing their conditions on us. They are actively supported in this, even indulged in London, Washington, Brussels. If this is their choice, then we know how we can achieve goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a special military operation," he said.

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Zichan said:

According to ISW, Ukraine recaptured Bilohorivka 3 days ago.

It’s impressive to watch how a NATO trained army is teaching the Russians humility.

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I must say, this is incredibly disrespectful to the determination of the Ukrainian military. Do you think it that in 4 months NATO countries have magically turned the Ukrainians into a western army?

All the magic NATO equipment is not particularly special, not even MLRS or M777, AFU already had tube and rocket artillery, just not enough. Plus it's not like they have the full range of NATO behind them. They cannot call for a Predator drone, they do not have Apaches blowing away anything that moves before infantry goes in, etc.

What do you think NATO training is teaching them? In 3 months of "NATO standards training", my favorite part was getting myself a soft serve cone at the end of the day in the mess hall.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Russia could've afforded a ridiculously good ground force and air force, even Su-57s, if they gave up the Russian Navy outside ground based aviation, SSNs, SSBNs, corvettes and frigates.

Their white elephant SSGN, Kirov modernization, Slava modernization and Kuznetzov repair projects cost ~5 billion USD, enough money to buy dozens of Su-57s and MALE drones, hundreds of T-14s and NVG for everyone.

It's not like a few more cruisers will help Russia in any conflict, and while losing SSGNs is painful they will NEVER get to use them the way they're using tanks and tactical air.

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It's like choosing between having a global deterrence / power projection capability or committing all their eggs to this single war in Ukraine.

gelgoog said:

I don't know why you think Russia cannot make drones. Sure they are behind China and they cannot mass manufacture cheap drones because they lack the electronics industry for it, but they have MALE drones like the Orion.
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They still have issues with supply and fabrication but just this year Kronstadt built a new drone factory north of Moscow.

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Not that they're unable to make drones in any form just to commit major resources to creation of a drone army in a meaningful capacity. Like I said previously they're committed to a full war on the ground already, that of which I don't believe they believed they'd be involved with for this long. Or for the fact the West got so heavily involved in this conflict most likely prolonging it longer than anticipated, at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in 2016 when Russia reclaimed Crimea the Ukraine Armed Forces looked like a push over.