The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ironically enough, probably the sanest man right now.

He has said from the beggining that the general Russian strategy was wrong.

He's hard core. Remember that Putin is also trying to hold back the hard core right wing factions both politically and in the military. Who knows what's going to happen if the hard core groups take power.
 

delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
While this is a step in right direction for Russia, it remain to be seen if this is one time off to save face or stepping up their game.

If anything, it show that Russia leader is a slow leaner and stubborn in the wrong area. It's took them 7 months to do something that should have been done in the first week of their SMO. One would wonder how the hell Russia leave Ukraine critical infrastructure like communication and electricity intact and expect them to surrender.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I really wish people would just stop and think before they keep making this tired old argument. As if it was that easy or cost free and all Putin had to do was snap his fingers and millions of fully trained and equip soldiers would magically appear overnight.

I think that the main reason Putin hasn’t fully mobilised yet is because that’s not a viable option. And not just because of the political and economic costs, but also military.

Currently, it’s the professional Russian army engaged in Ukraine. Obviously they did not deploy the whole army, but what has been deployed is probably close to what they can maintain in a sustained manner. They can surge troops every now and again, which may be what they are doing now, but that’s only viable short term.

For Russia to have significantly more combat troops is to deploy their conscripts. Sure that will add a few hundred thousand extra warm bodies, but I have serious reservations about just how combat effective Russian conscripts are. I think they may not even be at the same level as the DNR militias since the DNR seems to be getting a lot of decent hardware and have seen a lot of fighting in the last few years. Russian conscripts may only be at 2014 Ukraine army standards, and we all saw how useful that caliber of troops are

So, mobilisation and declaring war isn’t actually likely to change things up on the ground in Ukraine for the Russians all that much, at least not in the short term and probably not in the ways they want.

They are going to move from a situation where they have too few soldiers to a situation where they have too few good soldiers, who on top of fighting the enemy, now may also need to babysits FNG conscripts. The kind of low cost (in lives) tactical retreat we just seen may not even be possible with a large number of green conscripts scattered all over the place getting underfoot.

Unlike the US in Vietnam, Russian conscripts won’t have the luxury of having air dominance and CAS all the time to bail them out, when they fuck up, they are liable to suffer serious casualties. It’s the Russian ground forces that are doing all the heavy lifting in this war so far, and the demands on them and the fighting skill of their troops may surprise many who sneer. Especially when you consider they are overwhelmingly using dumb rounds instead of PGMs.

Ironically, the recent twin Ukrainian offensives offers up very effective illustrations on the effectiveness and value of conscripts vs professional military. How well did Ukrainian conscripts fair? Was it worth it to even deploy them other than to act as extremely expensive human decoys and bullet sponges to prepare the field for the professional soldiers elsewhere?

But one thing for sure will happen if they deploy conscripts, Russian combat casualties will jump up, and their K/D rations will plummet. Worse for Putin is that more body bags will return home to Russian families instead of Eastern Ukrainian ones.

The root of Russia’s current battlefield woes is still the same as from the start of the war - corruption, mismanagement and penny pinching in their military modernisation. Declaring war and throwing in the conscripts solves none of those problems.

Too much of their military modernisation was done for show and on the cheap. Too much spent on fancy planes and mighty ships and too little on less sexy but more practical and important stuff like PGMs, SEAD jamming pods, targeting pods, UAVs, comms, night vision, thermal and above all - training. They also cut their professional military numbers by too much, and conscripts are just not up to scratch to be worth the costs of deploying them.
Russia doesn't have to mobilize right now on the spot, but advancing and eventually defeating Ukraine without sending significantly more troops would require a miracle. Never in modern war history has a force of 200 000 beaten a defender of 600 000.

If we ask ourselves how effective a Russian conscript is, the most likely answer is, about as effective as an Ukrainian one. So maybe they can't do things independently, but as demonstrated by Ukraine, you can use them en masse to hold the lines and let them follow the professional soldiers during an offensive and they do a good job at it.

Youre right that right now when Russians are outnumbered at least 2 to 1 if not 4 to 1 most of the time, it requires high skill for Russian soldiers to fight. But the level of skill needed will drastically reduce when Russia has equal amount of troops with air superiority and artillery advantage. Especially if Russia first knocks out critical Ukrainian infrastructure and degrade their ability to move western equipment to the frontline after they've been made overly reliant on western arms delivery, and only then send in the conscripts.

The winning moves is to keep taking good trades while avoiding any significant Russian regular losses, if necessary even pulling back as long as the southern bank isn't threatened (which would cut off Crimea). Once the AFU has been softened up by proxy/artillery warfare to the point where Russian conscripts can participate in the war without significant risks, the conscripts can go.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
While this is a step in right direction for Russia, it remain to be seen if this is one time off to save face or stepping up their game.

If anything, it show that Russia leader is a slow leaner and stubborn in the wrong area. It's took them 7 months to do something that should have been done in the first week of their SMO. One would wonder how the hell Russia leave Ukraine critical infrastructure like communication and electricity intact and expect them to surrender.

Or maybe Putin himself doesn’t have as much power as we think he does.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Well, it's pretty hard for Russia to lose considering they outnumber Ukrainians 4 to 1, and that's counting rebels. Sure, Ukrainians can take back three small cities, but can they take back a major city? I don't think so.
Tonghua (a.k.a. Yommie 2.0)...You consistently keep bringing up 147 million Russians vs. 43 million Ukrainian like population size is the final deciding factor...

What retarded logic, because population alone is irrelevant...How did Vietnam or Afghanistan or Mongolia defeat nations with much larger population? Population alone is irrelevant and will be auto-deleted.
 
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MixedReality

Junior Member
Registered Member
While this is a step in right direction for Russia, it remain to be seen if this is one time off to save face or stepping up their game.

If anything, it show that Russia leader is a slow leaner and stubborn in the wrong area. It's took them 7 months to do something that should have been done in the first week of their SMO. One would wonder how the hell Russia leave Ukraine critical infrastructure like communication and electricity intact and expect them to surrender.

Utterly indefensible strategy by Russia. First thing in war is taking out the infrastructure (power grids, communications, transportation, etc). This should have been the strategy on day 1.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Utterly indefensible strategy by Russia. First thing in war is taking out the infrastructure (power grids, communications, transportation, etc). This should have been the strategy on day 1.
If they wanted to keep the infrastructure, fine, but apparently Zaporizhzhia Generating Station was still selling electricity to Ukrainian occupied regions, wtf? I mean it's one thing to not strike infrastructure you are going to capture but to still allow captured infrastructure to serve an opponent is just... Wtf...
 
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