I have been quite puzzled at the unfolding of the Kharkov offensive. The Ukrainians, with a relatively small force of 9000, attacked. The Russians have known for a long time that this offensive was coming. They have many ways to exact a price of the Ukrainian troops. Minefields, artillery fire on incoming troops. But the high commands of the Russian military ordered their troops not to engage and just retreated. This comes after the heels of stunning success at the Kherson area. Talk of the area losing its strategic importance also did not address some of the points. Why did the Russians not simply retreated earlier in a more orderly fashion? Why did they not even try to cutoff the Ukrainian troops like so many times in the past? All the while, the Russians are hosting war games in the Far East with troops that they can deploy here. On the other hand, there were no significant battles so the Russians don't lose that many troops.
A thought experiment exposed a different reason why this could be the case. Imagine if the Ukrainian counter-offensives had been an object failure as it happened earlier in Kherson. Having spent their wat on the offensive, the Ukrainians would not be in a position to hold back the Russians. As it was, the Donbass theater was going very slowly be decidedly on the Russian favor. I was wondering why did it take this long for the Russians to make progress. Once things cracked, Ukraine stands to lose all of Donbass and the battle would quickly push to the Dnipro river. Couple with the failure of the offensive, war support would dry up in the West and Ukraine would be strongly pressured to fold as it was impacting the economies of Europe and to a less extend, the U.S. The whole thing would wrap up before the winter of 2022. However, since Ukraine folded, the West would not have to provide any concession to Russia. However, if Russia were to lose to the Ukrainians during their so called counteroffensive, there would be continue support of the war from the West and the whole thing would drag to the winter and beyond. Ukraine is just a platform. Russia needs concessions from the West. He needs Ukraine to stay in the war until winter. He needs the West not to fold too early. Call me crazy, but I think Putin sees signs that Ukraine is about to throw in the towel and this is his way of keeping Ukraine and the West in the fight.
