Broccoli
Senior Member
Tell that to all those chechens who got wiped out when they tried to reach Kyiv.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Tell that to all those chechens who got wiped out when they tried to reach Kyiv.
Source ?
Unless Russia has equipment and men being churned out and trained in secret with winter gear for a surprise blitzkrieg i.e. the 175k+? new army with usage of heavy weaponry like FOABs etc, WW2 style, Russia can loose the war including Crimea.
All the hubris that Ukraine cant fight, well they can and they have thousands of people being trained and they have millions in queue.
If Russia keeps doing whatever its doing and Ukraine keeps doing whatever it's doing, UkrNato will win.
All the hubris that Ukraine cant fight, well they can and they have thousands of people being trained and they have millions in queue.
If Russia keeps doing whatever its doing and Ukraine keeps doing whatever it's doing, UkrNato will win.
I think the issue that Russia will run into now is that even if they do fully mobilize, they'll only be able to bring in their conscripts, their regular army has already been engaged and suffered attrition throughout the conflict, the conscripts will need time to fight in real war conditions before they will reach current Ukranian armed forces level of experience/operational competence, going on a rehearsed drill is one thing, force on force encounters is a completely different beast, as we can see from the massive difference in performance between those Russians who trained with the PLA and those that didn't.
Unless they completely change the way they are conducting the war at the moment, there will be many bloody lessons before those fresh conscripts are even as competent as the regular army. If they had mobilized at the start, both Ukraine and Russia would've had some of the most battle hardened and largest army in Europe by now. But instead we have 50000 fresh conscripts playing parade while the in the West the Ukrainians push them back 3 months of progress.
Unless they completely change the way they are conducting the war at the moment, there will be many bloody lessons before those fresh conscripts are even as competent as the regular army. If they had mobilized at the start, both Ukraine and Russia would've had some of the most battle hardened and largest army in Europe by now. But instead we have 50000 fresh conscripts playing parade while the in the West the Ukrainians push them back 3 months of progress.
Sino-Vietnamese War stopped Vietnamese influence from spreading in Indochina, earned further rapprochement with Western countries, exposed the Soviets as unreliable to their Allie’s (contributing to their entrance to Soviet Afghan War), exposed weaknesses in the PLA that enabled Deng to make reforms, and allowed the PLA to get a decade of combat experience by rotating troops from different military districts to the frontlines.
What has this fiasco achieved for Russia?
The troops Ukraine mostly use are also conscripts.
If Russia declares war, starts a limited draft and pushes all of Ukraine with their whole army, conscripts might be a bit less effective than career troops but the conscripts will be fighting in a huge mass of troops, allowing veterans to get them up to speed as well as having safety in numbers. Presumably, this is also how Ukraine employs its conscripts.
As long as Russia can keep it losses low (and even staunch anti Russians usually believe casualties are higher for Ukraine), it favors them to have not mobilised too early.
If Russia sent 600 000 troops into Ukraine immediately to fight Ukraine's own 200 000 regulars + 600 000 reserves, they would square off directly against the USSR standard professional troops that pushed back Russians in the Kiev sector as well as the most fanatic national units like Azov which have almost been completely wiped out now.
Perhaps, Russia still had better odds of winning, but if Russia lost that battle, they would be completely fucked for real.
After 7 months of war, Ukraine has lost most if not all USSR top line equipment, evident in how we see NATO shipped equipment instantly taking prominence as soon as it arrives. AFU is estimated to have around 400 000 troops ready, most conscripts.
There is really nothing holding back Russia from mobilizing. Even if you believe the western official line that Putin is selfishly refusing because he fears for his popularity, logically, if Russia can't hold back the Ukrainian army, wouldn't his popularity suffer even more then?
I would say, if Russia loses thousands of men without getting at least even on kills vs Ukraine in a battlefield, then that is a huge and concerning blunder. Or if AFU can enter Russian core areas like Mariupol, Crimea or the RF itself. But moving back without much if any losses and making a new line? Concerning but not game changing, not if Russia's strategy is to keep weakning AFU, keep creating refugees from Ukraine, until they can execute a blitz using the whole Russian military and take the whole country.
Not like the Ukranians can use the T-80's, though
Well, there is a history of "enjoying" the use of chemical and biological weapons on civilians, particularly in China, without acknowledging having done that, with a lot of the people involved enjoying a long, healthy life back in Japan, so is not that shocking.
Several videos have surfaced of Ukranian soldiers abusing DNR/LPR POW's again. Not surprising given we already saw and read about them executing POWs before.
Also Russians are reporting the complete shutdown of ZNPP to avoid an accident due to Ukraines shelling
An ammo depot was hit in Mikolayiv, as well